ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[CyclonicFury]

The MJO may not be favorable for the Atlantic at the moment, but a weak convectively coupled Kelvin Wave is moving eastward across the Atlantic between two suppressed waves, and this may give 95L a slight boost.

[sma10]

Vorticity with 95L thru 96 hrs of the 12z is night and day compared to any other run. I guess watch the euro later and check the Uk to see if it recognizes genesis

[Aric Dunn]

I would assume the chances go up at 2pm.. but who knows anymore.. lol

[AtlanticWind]

I would assume the chances go up at 2pm.. but who knows anymore.. lol

It will , at least 30% more likely 40.

[tropicwatch]

Anybody else getting an error message while trying to get Invest 95L spaghetti models?

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived
wind data from earlier this morning indicated that the circulation
remains elongated. Environmental conditions appear conducive
enough to support additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves generally westward at 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
Conditions are likely to become less conducive for development late
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[AtlanticWind]

Up to 50%

[tiger_deF]

At least in terms of vorticity this looks like a TD already, the 700mb presentation is pretty similar to the actual TS in the Pacific

[Nuno]

Quite a jump considering this wasn't even highlighted 24 hours ago.

[toad strangler]

Lull forecast fail

[BYG Jacob]

It says a lot the Atlantic base state is so favorable a suppressed Kelvin Wave means basically nothing

[Aric Dunn]

It says a lot the Atlantic base state is so favorable a suppressed Kelvin Wave means basically nothing

It is never just one thing that makes development favorable. MJO, Kelvin waves.. etc. all those things are known atmospheric features. but a complete understanding of how they affect the weather is still unknown. and models are only as good as the mathematical model and the data.

This system is clearly in an environment less affected said features

[Nuno]

It says a lot the Atlantic base state is so favorable a suppressed Kelvin Wave means basically nothing

Pretty much. Story of the season. Not to invoke 2005, but I remember it seemed every storm that year continuously outperformed intensity forecasts (also the whole development-closer-to-home thing). When your base state is so favourable, it seems to not matter as much. Isaias faced so much dry air in its life and still managed to last quite a long time and landfall as a hurricane anyways.

Guys like Ventrice and others on twitter are good at what they do, but the strict adherence to intraseasonal factors and over-reliance on "oh its just climatology so it won't..." is just as bad as model worship.

[CourierPR]

It always amuses me how some folks on here treat climatology like it's an actual force and that climatology could prohibit rogue systems from developing in all cases.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It always amuses me how some folks on here treat climatology like it's an actual force and that climatology could prohibit rogue systems from developing in all cases.

I mean, it's August. Climatology would have very little to do with preventing this storm from developing.

[Nuno]

It always amuses me how some folks on here treat climatology like it's an actual force and that climatology could prohibit rogue systems from developing in all cases.

The other extreme is people who still feel like every July that doesn't behave like 2005 is a strong signal that the season will be slow or lackluster

[Aric Dunn]

It always amuses me how some folks on here treat climatology like it's an actual force and that climatology could prohibit rogue systems from developing in all cases.

I mean, it's August. Climatology would have very little to do with preventing this storm from developing.

That is CourierPR's point.. Climatology is nothing.. it is just statistical data. tells us nothing about current conditions.

[CyclonicFury]

It always amuses me how some folks on here treat climatology like it's an actual force and that climatology could prohibit rogue systems from developing in all cases.

The other extreme is people who still feel like every July that doesn't behave like 2005 is a strong signal that the season will be slow or lackluster

Or that when dry air and SAL is present that means the season will be just like 2013. It's almost like the Atlantic is dry in July!

[toad strangler]

It always amuses me how some folks on here treat climatology like it's an actual force and that climatology could prohibit rogue systems from developing in all cases.

I mean, it's August. Climatology would have very little to do with preventing this storm from developing.

That is CourierPR's point.. Climatology is nothing.. it is just statistical data. tells us nothing about current conditions.

This is true but climo is always a tool in the chest and most times a real useful one. But this year is proving to be different from the get go.

[St0rmTh0r]

It says a lot the Atlantic base state is so favorable a suppressed Kelvin Wave means basically nothing

this is very scary!