ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2020081000, , BEST, 0, 103N, 300W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

At 0000 UTC, 10 August 2020, DISTURBANCE INVEST 95 (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 10.3°N and 30°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 15 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[toad strangler]

Sustaining some pretty decent convection over the center tonight.

Yep. I was just about to post about that. Formation chances will probably be increased in the next TWO. Perhaps 50/60.

95L has a healthy spin that's for sure. Long term progs aren't too healthy but we were told a lull was coming and that lasted maybe three or four days?

[jaxfladude]

Is the Atlantic Basin still in a quiet(ish) period or is the lid starting to show the first signs of coming off for the peak of the season the next 8-10 weeks or so? 2020 sucks...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is the Atlantic Basin still in a quiet(ish) period or is the lid starting to show the first signs of coming off for the peak of the season the next 8-10 weeks or so? 2020 sucks...

this is still quiet compared to what we are about to see in 2-3 weeks.

[MississippiWx]

MJO becomes less of a factor the closer you get to peak season. Think people are putting too much stock into it. The issue with 95L will be staying away from the dry air to the north.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a depression too me!

[abajan]

Looks like a depression too me!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6489/weM2an.gif

An upgrade as soon as 5 AM seeming more likely by the hour.

[HuracanMaster]

Looks like a depression too me!

To my untrained eye too, apears to be getting stacked.

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[Hurricaneman]

I’m doing a forecast for 95L

The conditions for 95L seem to be good enough to form a tropical storm the next 72 hrs but become unfavorable beyond that so here are the pros and cons for this system

Pros
The shear is low for at least the next 5 days
Has a good moisture envelop
Has good spin

Cons
Beyond 72 hrs has sinking air
Beyond 120hrs has shear from a TUTT
Has very little model support past 72 hrs

Here’s my forecast for intensity

Now. 50% chance for development
12 hrs. 80% chance for development
24hrs. TD11 35mph
36hrs. TS 40mph
48hrs. TS 45mph
60hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 60mph
84hrs. TS 50mph
96hrs. TS 40mph
108hrs. TD 35mph
120hrs. Dissipated

[HuracanMaster]

Pocket of convection in front appears to be fighting off dry air to the west north west, shields up...again. amazing!

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[AutoPenalti]

I’m doing a forecast for 95L

The conditions for 95L seem to be good enough to form a tropical storm the next 72 hrs but become unfavorable beyond that so here are the pros and cons for this system

Pros
The shear is low for at least the next 5 days
Has a good moisture envelop
Has good spin

Cons
Beyond 72 hrs has sinking air
Beyond 120hrs has shear from a TUTT
Has very little model support past 72 hrs

Here’s my forecast for intensity

Now. 50% chance for development
12 hrs. 80% chance for development
24hrs. TD11 35mph
36hrs. TS 40mph
48hrs. TS 45mph
60hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 60mph
84hrs. TS 50mph
96hrs. TS 40mph
108hrs. TD 35mph
120hrs. Dissipated

Sinking air won’t be an issue for a developed system.

[HuracanMaster]

I’m doing a forecast for 95L

The conditions for 95L seem to be good enough to form a tropical storm the next 72 hrs but become unfavorable beyond that so here are the pros and cons for this system

Pros
The shear is low for at least the next 5 days
Has a good moisture envelop
Has good spin

Cons
Beyond 72 hrs has sinking air
Beyond 120hrs has shear from a TUTT
Has very little model support past 72 hrs

Here’s my forecast for intensity

Now. 50% chance for development
12 hrs. 80% chance for development
24hrs. TD11 35mph
36hrs. TS 40mph
48hrs. TS 45mph
60hrs. TS 50mph
72hrs. TS 60mph
84hrs. TS 50mph
96hrs. TS 40mph
108hrs. TD 35mph
120hrs. Dissipated

Sinking air won’t be an issue for a developed system.

Model support is on vacation in 2020.

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[cycloneye]

This is a very protected pouch. Look here.

[sma10]

Looks like a depression too me!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6489/weM2an.gif

An upgrade as soon as 5 AM seeming more likely by the hour.

I would agree except for the fact that we know the NHC is extra stingy with upgrading systems quickly that far East.

[gfsperpendicular]

The wave ahead of this did quite the job sweeping out dry air/SAL. This wave should have at least a few days before getting bothered.

I miss the dry, dusty MDR of early July.

[AveryTheComrade]

95L is looking very good recently, I wouldn't be surprised if it was upgraded at 11 depending on what ASCAT finds in a few hours

[CrazyC83]

I agree that this should have at least 3 days to manage to build itself up. Conditions look fairly good up to about 50W. Once past there, things get quite hostile unless a TUTT breaks down, and then it would have to go north to avoid an even stronger TUTT in the Caribbean Sea.

[abajan]

Pocket of convection in front appears to be fighting off dry air to the west north west, shields up...again. amazing!https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200810/d30becfc5b5df2aa8fca1d4f99b17d79.jpg

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If I didn't know better, I'd say the pocket of convection is 95L.

[Jr0d]

It would not be unprecedented for two storms to form...only for one to get sheared apart by the other.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a vigorous tropical wave located several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for additional
development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the disturbance moves generally
westward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions
are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of
the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart