Seasonal Forecasts

[Frank2]

I think the NHC changed their seasonal forecast topic to "'Extremely active' hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin" - note the word "possible" and it's an important word, because so far while we are almost halfway through the alphabet, the systems that formed have been modest at best.

There are many discussions on this site and elsewhere over the use of the word "extremely active" when describing what the current season might bring, but it's interesting the NHC used that term and "possible" in the same sentence.

It's why forecasters I worked for many years ago were not enthusiastic about making long-term predictions. They used the "on the map" thinking, in other words, their first concern was always over a system that was out there, instead of making the public worry about a busy season that might never happen.

The 2006 season is a good example - many forecasted a continuation of the busy 2005 season, until an unexpectedly strong El Nino prevented most systems from developing.

So far SAL and shear are keeping anything that forms in check. Things might change but then again things might not - as the people I worked for used to say, "In weather a person can only be 50% wrong."

There needs to be less long-term forecasting and more focus on what the public needs to do - or not do - when a storm does threaten, the public's incorrect initial response to the current epidemic one glaring example of how not to respond to a threatening situation.

Frank

[CyclonicFury]

I think the NHC changed their seasonal forecast topic to "'Extremely active' hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin" - note the word "possible" and it's an important word, because so far while we are almost halfway through the alphabet, the systems that formed have been modest at best.

There are many discussions on this site and elsewhere over the use of the word "extremely active" when describing what the current season might bring, but it's interesting the NHC used that term and "possible" in the same sentence.

It's why forecasters I worked for many years ago were not enthusiastic about making long-term predictions. They used the "on the map" thinking, in other words, their first concern was always over a system that was out there, instead of making the public worry about a busy season that might never happen.

The 2006 season is a good example - many forecasted a continuation of the busy 2005 season, until an unexpectedly strong El Nino prevented most systems from developing.

So far SAL and shear are keeping anything that forms in check. Things might change but then again things might not - as the people I worked for used to say, "In weather a person can only be 50% wrong."

There needs to be less long-term forecasting and more focus on what the public needs to do - or not do - when a storm does threaten, the public's incorrect initial response to the current epidemic one glaring example of how not to respond to a threatening situation.

Frank

1) We are seeing the exact opposite of what happened in 2006 right now. In summer 2006, a weak El Niño rapidly developed, whereas this year we are slowly progressing towards La Niña conditions.

2) I know you say the early storms have been "modest at best" but we have already had two hurricanes when the average through this date is one. 85% of all Atlantic major hurricane activity is typically after August 20.

3) Shear and SAL are present every July. Mid-level RH has increased considerably in the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks. Shear was actually the second lowest on record in the tropical Atlantic during July.

All factors considered, predicting an extremely active season made sense.

[Frank2]

If you're going to quote someone, quote them correctly. I said the systems that have formed so far were "modest at best" not "unimpressive"...

The 2006 El Nino might have been weak - but the shear was a knock-out blow to the season.

Frank

[psyclone]

Give me a break. Modest at best and unimpressive are synonyms in any sane world. this isn't 2006. not even close. It's a good time to remember that no matter which side of the tracks you're on...the weather doesn't care what anyone wants...it is going to do what it is going to do. Having said that...i think it's safe to assume this year isn't going to 2006. In fact i'd bet heavily on that.

[EquusStorm]

We tied the entirety of 2006 in named storm count on July 30th (not counting the oft-forgotten operationally unnamed TS) so there's that

If it weren't for the Gonzalo through Isaias spree I'd say there would be more of an argument on seasonal totals since baroclinically initiated storms like 5 of our first 6 - while absolutely still bonafide tropical cyclones - are surely much more difficult to factor in to seasonal forecasts and largely independent of conditions in the deep tropics... I'm just thrilled we have the technology now to actually catch brief storms.

[Frank2]

Give me a break. Modest at best and unimpressive are synonyms in any sane world.

I'm not going to argue grammar but the first is a polite way of speaking and the other is a "forget it" way of thinking.

[Frank2]

I'm just thrilled we have the technology now to actually catch brief storms.

I'm not and as we all know the world is suffering from an overdose of technology-driven knowledge of many things that do not matter. If this were 50 years ago those short-lived systems woiuld not be noticed on the polar-orbiting satellites of that time, the exception being ship or aircraft that are aided by knowing they exist.

The public however does not benefit for knowing about these weak short-lived systems, especially systems that are forecast not to threaten land, only end up in the breaking news media feed and make a very stressed public even more worried.

[toad strangler]

If you're going to quote someone, quote them correctly. I said the systems that have formed so far were "modest at best" not "unimpressive"...

The 2006 El Nino might have been weak - but the shear was a knock-out blow to the season.

Frank

There is absolutely nothing modest about two hurricane US landfalls more than a full month before the peak of the season.

[EquusStorm]

Ignoring systems that meet the criteria to stay true to crappy incomplete records with primitive technology from half a century ago is openly destructive to climatology and basin statistics; no basin in the world does that. If it meets the criteria, name it. Reanalysis is having to add so many storms that were missed operationally that I would toss out seasonal totals from before more modern satellite technology.

[aspen]

If you're going to quote someone, quote them correctly. I said the systems that have formed so far were "modest at best" not "unimpressive"...

The 2006 El Nino might have been weak - but the shear was a knock-out blow to the season.

Frank

There is absolutely nothing modest about two hurricane US landfalls more than a full month before the peak of the season.

We’re also ahead of most recent and active seasons in terms of the first mainland US hurricane landfall.

2020: July 25th (Hanna)
2019: July 13th (Barry)
2018: September 14th (Florence)
2017: August 25th (Harvey)
2016: September 1st (Hermine)
2012: August 28th (Issac)
2011: August 27th (Irene)
2010: none

[Frank2]

Modest as far as intensity - as we all know an 80 or 85 mph hurricane is much different than a 130 or 150 mph hurricane. So far we've been fortunate that none of these named systems have amounted to nothing more.

This morning there is a media article that states the current shear and dry air pattern is about to end - but I argue the same was said in 2006 and thankfully the August-September season was supressed and remained that way.

The problem is what to do if a major hurricane does threaten South Florida - with our high virus numbers there is no place a person can evacuate to without spreading the virus. As a person who worked in the weather business for a decade, I hope and pray this season will remain as it's been - modest.

Frank2

[St0rmTh0r]

Modest as far as intensity - as we all know an 80 or 85 mph hurricane is much different than a 130 or 150 mph hurricane. So far we've been fortunate that none of these named systems have amounted to nothing more.

This morning there is a media article that states the current shear and dry air pattern is about to end - but I argue the same was said in 2006 and thankfully the August-September season was supressed and remained that way.

The problem is what to do if a major hurricane does threaten South Florida - with our high virus numbers there is no place a person can evacuate to without spreading the virus. As a person who worked in the weather business for a decade, I hope and pray this season will remain as it's been - modest.

Frank2

This year compares in no way to 2006.

[Steve]

I'm just thrilled we have the technology now to actually catch brief storms.

I'm not and as we all know the world is suffering from an overdose of technology-driven knowledge of many things that do not matter. If this were 50 years ago those short-lived systems woiuld not be noticed on the polar-orbiting satellites of that time, the exception being ship or aircraft that are aided by knowing they exist.

The public however does not benefit for knowing about these weak short-lived systems, especially systems that are forecast not to threaten land, only end up in the breaking news media feed and make a very stressed public even more worried.

wt*?

[CyclonicFury]

Modest as far as intensity - as we all know an 80 or 85 mph hurricane is much different than a 130 or 150 mph hurricane. So far we've been fortunate that none of these named systems have amounted to nothing more.

This morning there is a media article that states the current shear and dry air pattern is about to end - but I argue the same was said in 2006 and thankfully the August-September season was supressed and remained that way.

The problem is what to do if a major hurricane does threaten South Florida - with our high virus numbers there is no place a person can evacuate to without spreading the virus. As a person who worked in the weather business for a decade, I hope and pray this season will remain as it's been - modest.

Frank2

This year compares in no way to 2006.

1. 2006 did not have a developing La Niña, instead it had a rapidly developing El Niño.

2. 2006 did not have a top-5 warmest Atlantic MDR on record.

3. 2006 did not have the second lowest shear on record in the MDR and Caribbean in July.

4. 2006 did not have the lowest sea level pressures on record in the Atlantic during July.

5. 2006 did not have 2 hurricanes of tropical origin through this date, in fact, it had no hurricanes at all through August 31.

6. 2006 did not have 4 tropical cyclones form south of 20°N before August 15.

The only comparison between the two years is the high expert forecasts. That's it.

[Frank2]

With all due respect you were only 6 or 7 in 2006, so you might not recall after the disasterous 2005 season forecasters expected the same would carry over into the '06 season, but were surprised when stronger than forecast shear developed in mid-summer (members of this very board insisted it would decrease) and remained that way through August and September.

This year factors are different, they're different every year, but cyclones rely on every factor being enough to support a major hurricane. It's not something that just happens because any combination appear to favor the formation of a hurricane.

For example, the new long-range GFS shows the Bermuda high anchored over the Azores, which favors recurving systems if that turns out to be true.

Every season is different.

Frank

[Steve]

With all due respect you were only 6 or 7 in 2006, so you might not recall after the disasterous 2005 season forecasters expected the same would carry over into the '06 season, but were surprised when stronger than forecast shear developed in mid-summer (members of this very board insisted it would decrease) and remained that way through August and September.

This year factors are different, they're different every year, but cyclones rely on every factor being enough to support a major hurricane. It's not something that just happens because any combination appear to favor the formation of a hurricane.

For example, the new long-range GFS shows the Bermuda high anchored over the Azores, which favors recurving systems if that turns out to be true.

Every season is different.

Frank

Of course they are. But it's not 2006.

You can't hang your hopes on a NE based Atlantic High depicted on the GFS if that's not the whole story. Run the model. While there are short windows with recurve potential after a week and a half, this isn't a pattern that is overall conducive to recurves.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=180

[psyclone]

Every year is different but I'll reference 2006 because it is what i want. Sounds logical.

[CyclonicFury]

With all due respect you were only 6 or 7 in 2006, so you might not recall after the disasterous 2005 season forecasters expected the same would carry over into the '06 season, but were surprised when stronger than forecast shear developed in mid-summer (members of this very board insisted it would decrease) and remained that way through August and September.

This year factors are different, they're different every year, but cyclones rely on every factor being enough to support a major hurricane. It's not something that just happens because any combination appear to favor the formation of a hurricane.

For example, the new long-range GFS shows the Bermuda high anchored over the Azores, which favors recurving systems if that turns out to be true.

Every season is different.

Frank

I may have only been 7 in 2006, but I am well aware of what happened with the forecast busts that year. Shear was stronger than predicted in ASO because of a rapidly developing moderate El Niño that summer. That has NOT been the case this year - the ENSO regions have been cooling slowly since April, and we are now on the verge of La Niña conditions. Shear was at its second lowest on record in July in the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean. The current increase in shear is likely a result of a suppressed MJO phase, and it should drop again when the MJO moves into a more favorable phase late this month.

It's important to remember approximately 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes form after August 20. We have a long way to go. Sure the season could underperform the very bullish forecasts, but there are not many similarities between 2006 and 2020 other than the very bullish seasonal forecasts.

[al78]

Ignoring systems that meet the criteria to stay true to crappy incomplete records with primitive technology from half a century ago is openly destructive to climatology and basin statistics; no basin in the world does that. If it meets the criteria, name it. Reanalysis is having to add so many storms that were missed operationally that I would toss out seasonal totals from before more modern satellite technology.

That is why the ACE index is a better metric for seasonal activity, than storm numbers. Crappy weak short lived early season storms forming in the sub-tropics contribute little compared to the long tracking Cape Verde systems around peak season.

[al78]

2. 2006 did not have a top-5 warmest Atlantic MDR on record.

I don't think we do this year either. MDR mean July SST was near average. It has warmed through July up to now and the anomaly is around +0.4. I'd be surprised if that was in the top five. It might be if it were an August-September mean, but not for a current value.