2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Steve]

^<

Climate Forecast System indicates a quiet period in the first half of September after an initial burst. Things look to improve significantly after that. I don’t know if I buy it yet or if it will adjust more toward a longer upward motion phase.

[St0rmTh0r]

^<

Climate Forecast System indicates a quiet period in the first half of September after an initial burst. Things look to improve significantly after that. I don’t know if I buy it yet or if it will adjust more toward a longer upward motion phase.

Highly doubt September has a quiet period

[SFLcane]

CFS has been very consistent with the VP anomaly propagation. That is some VP anomalies if that verifies starting next week (off the chart in fact - no wonder the globals are blowing up the Pacific next week). Look for action to pickup in the western Atlantic afterwards (~August 18th) and then propagate towards the MDR/eastern Atlantic towards the latter parts of August:

https://i.ibb.co/58SSzXv/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-fh168-1008-2.gif

Insane!

[Steve]

^<

Climate Forecast System indicates a quiet period in the first half of September after an initial burst. Things look to improve significantly after that. I don’t know if I buy it yet or if it will adjust more toward a longer upward motion phase.

Highly doubt September has a quiet period

I’m not sure either which was why I was commenting on its output for today. Seems like it wants storms then no or few(er) storms then storms.

?

[USTropics]

CFS has been very consistent with the VP anomaly propagation. That is some VP anomalies if that verifies starting next week (off the chart in fact - no wonder the globals are blowing up the Pacific next week). Look for action to pickup in the western Atlantic afterwards (~August 18th) and then propagate towards the MDR/eastern Atlantic towards the latter parts of August:

https://i.ibb.co/58SSzXv/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-fh168-1008-2.gif

If you need a recent example of why VP anomalies centered over or just east of Africa is one of the most favorable signals of an active period, see July VP anomalies:

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS takes longer than the Euro to get the Atlantic favorable because it seems to be getting stuck on the border of a strong Phase 8/1 Instead of propagation through phase 1 and into phase 2 which is more common in La Niña years

[chaser1]

I’d believe these “Season Cancel” posts if it was September 9th and not only August 9th. As several have stated things can and will most likely change on a dime!

Could you be more specific or perhaps quote those several "season cancel" posts that you are referring to?

Look for yourself. I’m not going to call people out.

Thank you for proving my point. No such comments were made. If you're going to choose to be proactive, back it up with something greater then a generalization.

[TheStormExpert]

CFS has been very consistent with the VP anomaly propagation. That is some VP anomalies if that verifies starting next week (off the chart in fact - no wonder the globals are blowing up the Pacific next week). Look for action to pickup in the western Atlantic afterwards (~August 18th) and then propagate towards the MDR/eastern Atlantic towards the latter parts of August:

https://i.ibb.co/58SSzXv/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-fh168-1008-2.gif

According to the CFS if you trust it that far out thing might quiet down some mid-late September?

[stormlover2013]

The Mjo over the pacific will shift to the Atlantic within the next 2 weeks, will have rising air also, its coming folks buckle down.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1292797449896185856

[shiny-pebble]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1292828137240309764

[supercane4867]

[gatorcane]

Latest SST anomaly map from TT. Perhaps an overlooked area is the area south of Mexico and north of the equator which looks to be contributing to the EPAC’s hyperactivity as the wet-phase of MJO parks over that region. Also look at all the anomalously warm water around Bermuda. I could see some significant storms in that area potentially on recurve paths. Maybe Bermuda sees a significant threat or two this year.

[SFLcane]

Latest SST anomaly map from TT. Perhaps an overlooked area is the area south of Mexico and north of the equator which looks to be contributing to the EPAC’s hyperactivity as the wet-phase of MJO parks over that region. Also look at all the anomalously warm water around Bermuda. I could see some significant storms in that area potentially on recurve paths. Maybe Bermuda sees a significant threat or two this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/7h14KNPQ/cdas-sflux-ssta-global-1.png

Don’t bet on to many recurves the overall steering pattern is a very similar to 2004. High impact year if this comes to fruition

[gatorcane]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1292561645257003010

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1292917349440520192

[AutoPenalti]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

That may not be a good thing to be honest.

[Steve]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

That may not be a good thing to be honest.

Indeed.

[SFLcane]

I notice the models are trying to dig an anomalously strong trough into the eastern CONUS in 8-10 days. Check out the GFS temp anomalies albeit in the long-range and probably too cold. Indicator fall may start earlier than normal this year ushering in the westerlies or no indicator at all? Looks like 40s and 50s for the Midwest and even colder in southern Canada:

https://i.postimg.cc/nzMvJtFb/gfs-T2ma-us-37.png

2010 pattern if it persists. Looks like it cuts off on the Euro