ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Looks like it is going to make it past 40 degrees longitude with its small moisture envelope intact.
That is one of my first benchmarks for early season Cape Verde storms.

[tropicwatch]

The wave in front of 95L has more convection but less vorticity. Will be interesting to watch these two systems progress.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad
area of low pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression could
form during the next day or two while the disturbance moves
generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad
area of low pressure located about 600 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression could
form during the next day or two while the disturbance moves
generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[GCANE]

Looks like a swirl at 10.1N 34W is about to go naked.
Fighting a strong UL jet from a large UL Low to its south and UL High to its NW.
Looks like its deep in the SAL.
Not seeing a strong TPW infeed.
The convection west of it at 40W appears to be more protected from SAL than this one does.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a swirl at 10.1N 34W is about to go naked.
Fighting a strong UL jet from a large UL Low to its south and UL High to its NW.
Looks like its deep in the SAL.
Not seeing a strong TPW infeed.
The convection west of it at 40W appears to be more protected from SAL than this one does.

Not a good picture.

[wxman57]

This wave doesn't look like it has much of a chance of doing anything over the next 5 days.

[hurricanehunter69]

C'mon man. Now I'm pissed. Who doesn't want to be a part of history? We should have had Josephine by now. A seemingly sure bet 94L (70%) and now 95L (60%) . This was like sitting pretty with a 20...on a double down. Only to get beat by the dealer drawing to a 7 card 21.

[HuracanMaster]

Multiple competing vortices, seem to be coalesing around 10.5n 35w

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[AutoPenalti]

This wave sucks. Booo.

[EquusStorm]

Mid-August has pretty consistently been disappointing in recent years so not too surprising. I should wake up in late May to watch the inevitable subtropical storm then, and return to hibernating until at least August 20 lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Mid-August has pretty consistently been disappointing in recent years so not too surprising. I should wake up in late May to watch the inevitable subtropical storm then, and return to hibernating until at least August 20 lol

Yeah, actually most seasons in general are quiet in the time period between August 5 - August 20th.

August 21st - September 21st is when crap hits the fan.

[EquusStorm]

Yup. Some seasons like 2004 can buck the trend with early month activity but usually things stay pretty benign until September is on the horizon... which is inching ever closer by the day so time to stock up on supplies probably

[HurricaneEnzo]

I think this has still got a decent chance. We have seen these lowrider systems be able to beat the odds before. Almost looks like it is starting to zap some of the energy from that blob out ahead of it. Curious to see what it looks like this evening.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

[TheStormExpert]

Mid-August has pretty consistently been disappointing in recent years so not too surprising. I should wake up in late May to watch the inevitable subtropical storm then, and return to hibernating until at least August 20 lol

I will definitely agree the first two thirds of August have been awfully quiet the last three seasons and this year looks to be no different. The lid will likely though come off one would think in the last third. Though as time progresses it will become increasingly hard to out-beat 2005’s earliest storm formation records.

[plasticup]

Surprised by the pessimism in this thread. Wave looks pretty good imo - tightening circulation, building convection. NHC agrees.

[EquusStorm]

Mid-August has pretty consistently been disappointing in recent years so not too surprising. I should wake up in late May to watch the inevitable subtropical storm then, and return to hibernating until at least August 20 lol

I will definitely agree the first two thirds of August have been awfully quiet the last three seasons and this year looks to be no different. The lid will likely though come off one would think in the last third. Though as time progresses it will become increasingly hard to out-beat 2005’s earliest storm formation records.

Yeah the post-September count for 2005 (eleven storms!) would be extremely hard to beat without a much more massive head start than we're likely to have lol

[StPeteMike]

Besides a lackluster convection, there’s not much going up against this invest. It could still bring in the moisture ahead of it and get things going. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located almost 700 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is not currently showing signs of
additional organization, with satellite-derived wind data from this
morning still showing the system having an elongated surface
circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for development to occur, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days while the
disturbance moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Steve H.]

The first two weeks of August are typically slow. Things should ramp up quickly in the next week or so if the experts are on point, and I believe that they are. 95L looks decent imo so I wouldn't count it out. The light switch will get clicked on soon so we should be prepared. I have a feeling it will be a rough stretch.