ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?

[toad strangler]

I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif

That's a safe bet almost all the time with AEW's.

[TheStormExpert]

I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif

Well the 18z GEFS Ensembles that develop 95L turn this north into a weakness near 60ºW.

[drezee]

18z Euro is not overly impressed . But looks like a brief TC...

[HuracanMaster]

Guidance being funny.

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[sma10]

I wonder if this will be another case of stronger storm turns more north and weaker one continues drifting west?


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif

That is often the case.
However, notice that the most recent 00z run shows that the TABD (Deep) is running further SW than the TABS (Shallow). I wouldn't ever rely on these models for specific tracking, but I do look to see how the general shape of a track would look depending on how deep the system is

[drezee]

12z Euro says TD....

[cycloneye]

18z GFS mantains longer as TD.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1293035578745851904

[sma10]

Models now seem onboard to maintain a circulation for at least a few days, including now the UK.

They seem to suggest that it will meet its end somewhere north of PR, as it gets pulled north by what I imagine may become 96L over the next few days off the NC coast

[xironman]

HMON with a short lived cane before weakening it.

[eastcoastFL]

Intensity guidance not giving 95L much love. Maxing out as a mid level TS

[NDG]

Latest 0z Euro ensembles are the most enthusiastic for development during the past couple of days but all of them has it dying out by Sunday night.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z GFS has a moderate tropical storm before dissipation.

[Craters]

I posted this in the INVEST 95L Discussion board yesterday, when I probably should have put it here. I found this site a little while ago (don't remember how), and I figured that some of you might not have found it yet:

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

It's a more interactive version of a typical spaghetti-plot site, and tracking 95L with it might be good practice before things get a lot more hectic. Kinda like one-stop shopping for a bunch of models.

[mcheer23]

FWIW.. CMC has 95-L near Florida late next week.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is getting 95l down to 1001mb before it dissipates it a few days later. This is a bit more organized than the previous run:

[Nuno]

Models continue pushing back the lifespan of 95L. Many were showing dissipation after the current 72 hour window.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1293252237830098945

[gatorcane]

00Z Guidance: