ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[MarioProtVI]

Convection seems to be warming a bit. Let’s see if it holds out or poofs by morning.

[Hammy]

LLC around 11N 36W about four hours ago so still quite a bit east of the convection.

[eastcoastFL]

The blob to to the west just disappears as 95l starts firing off some serious convection. It’s overall appearance is much better and it’s now becoming more circular. It’ll be interesting to watch over the next few days. So far none of the intensity models give it much of a chance to get any stronger than a TS. But I don’t put too much confidence in those models anyhow.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/m1Bp3Lj.jpg

LLC around 11N 36W about four hours ago so still quite a bit east of the convection.

Latest IR does appear that the deeper convection is now more concentrated towards the eastern side. Maybe it’s trying to stack up?

[eastcoastFL]

It’s still tangled up in the middle of the ITCZ but looks to be gaining some latitude. Still quite a bit of dry air to its north

[Hammy]

Got blasted with easterly shear.

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate.
Persistent convection firing close to the CoC.
Appears to have developed a healthy warm core.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Looks to be acting more like a protected pouch now.
However, 20 knots of UL winds are still keeping this from stacking.

[xironman]

First visibles confirm the low level turning on the southeast of the convection.

[bob rulz]

TD at 11?

[supercane4867]

Very sheared system but definitely qualifies a TD.

[abajan]

First visibles confirm the low level turning on the southeast of the convection.

Absolutely. Looks like it's near 11.5N 37.8W:

[Aric Dunn]

Impressive the convection has maintained for 12 hours non stop like this. some easterly shear and the center is on the SE side as others have mentioned. but it still classifies as a TC. what the NHC does is anyones guess.

but the easterly shear should subside over the next 12 to 24 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Impressive the convection has maintained for 12 hours non stop like this. some easterly shear and the center is on the SE side as others have mentioned. but it still classifies as a TC. what the NHC does is anyones guess.

but the eastlerly should subisde over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Another sleeper on our hands

[NDG]

First visibles confirm the low level turning on the southeast of the convection.

Absolutely. Looks like it's near 11.5N 37.8W:

https://i.imgur.com/T9Ke2X8.gif

Yep, the system is still being affected by deep easterly shear. Models now show better UL winds for Thursday and Friday, maybe starting late tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Should be moving out of the easterly shear over the next 12 hours and into a low shear environment for a couple of days before it hits the TUTT.

Assuming it can continue to produce this type of convection when the easterly shear dies down. this should easily become Josephine.

[Nimbus]

So shear blows all the convection off to the northwest where it precipitates the lower levels.
Then in 24 hours the shear lessens.
"Anyone's guess"
OK.

[Aric Dunn]

This system is a pretty precarious spot. if it had been slightly farther north from the onset... it would have had a great low shear environment but would have placed it much closer to dryair/SAL.

where it is now the southern portion is getting hit with mid level shear but is far enough away from the dry air to maintain convection.


90% now per nhc..


000
ABNT20 KNHC 111129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

First-light visible satellite imagery shows that a better-defined
center of circulation is forming in association with a low pressure
system located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has become more organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and advisories could be initiated on a tropical
depression as early as later today if these development trends
continue. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward
at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few
days, and conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg