NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020
Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized
since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a
white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level
outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition,
earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida
possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the
recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the
intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt.
Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So
much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin
turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of
300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be
any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course
over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually
turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For
now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane
moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by
a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast
period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory
track to the south and the consensus models to the north.
Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some
additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning
before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface
temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease
along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and
to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12
hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by
continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous
advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity
models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart