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wxman57 wrote:plasticup wrote:
Gotta satisfy that "hyperactive" prediction! 2005 was like that too - every little wisp with some spin was given a name. There were 3-4 "Tropical Storms" that lasted <24 hours.
I would not accuse the NHC of falsely trying to pump up the numbers. However, the requirements for what qualifies as a named storm have changed significantly during my 40+ years as a hurricane forecaster.
wxman57 wrote:Last month, I decided to look back through the best track data to the 1800s to count the number of short-lived storms (2 days or less). Most of them in the 1800s were only short-lived because they could not be detected unless they were passing land. You can see that the number of short-lived storms is steadily increasing, but not necessarily because there are more now than existed in the past. The reason is likely due to better detection techniques combined with changing qualifications for naming. Twenty-storm seasons may become more common in the future, mostly due to short-lived tropical storms or subtropical storms, but the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes won't change much.
http://wxman57.com/images/Short-Lived.JPG
TheStormExpert wrote:wxman57 wrote:Last month, I decided to look back through the best track data to the 1800s to count the number of short-lived storms (2 days or less). Most of them in the 1800s were only short-lived because they could not be detected unless they were passing land. You can see that the number of short-lived storms is steadily increasing, but not necessarily because there are more now than existed in the past. The reason is likely due to better detection techniques combined with changing qualifications for naming. Twenty-storm seasons may become more common in the future, mostly due to short-lived tropical storms or subtropical storms, but the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes won't change much.
http://wxman57.com/images/Short-Lived.JPG
This right here why we could see a high number of named storms but a much lower number of hurricanes or major hurricanes this year and in coming years.
toad strangler wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:wxman57 wrote:Last month, I decided to look back through the best track data to the 1800s to count the number of short-lived storms (2 days or less). Most of them in the 1800s were only short-lived because they could not be detected unless they were passing land. You can see that the number of short-lived storms is steadily increasing, but not necessarily because there are more now than existed in the past. The reason is likely due to better detection techniques combined with changing qualifications for naming. Twenty-storm seasons may become more common in the future, mostly due to short-lived tropical storms or subtropical storms, but the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes won't change much.
http://wxman57.com/images/Short-Lived.JPG
This right here why we could see a high number of named storms but a much lower number of hurricanes or major hurricanes this year and in coming years.
He just said that hurricanes and major hurricanes numbers would stay the same. Which makes absolute sense.
wxman57 wrote:You can see a small vortex on the west side of the broad low pressure area. It's rotating southward.
http://wxman57.com/images/95La.JPG
wxman57 wrote:Last month, I decided to look back through the best track data to the 1800s to count the number of short-lived storms (2 days or less). Most of them in the 1800s were only short-lived because they could not be detected unless they were passing land. You can see that the number of short-lived storms is steadily increasing, but not necessarily because there are more now than existed in the past. The reason is likely due to better detection techniques combined with changing qualifications for naming. Twenty-storm seasons may become more common in the future, mostly due to short-lived tropical storms or subtropical storms, but the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes won't change much.
http://wxman57.com/images/Short-Lived.JPG
TheStormExpert wrote:Is it just shear that causes dissipation or is it also dry air?
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TheStormExpert wrote:wxman57 wrote:Last month, I decided to look back through the best track data to the 1800s to count the number of short-lived storms (2 days or less). Most of them in the 1800s were only short-lived because they could not be detected unless they were passing land. You can see that the number of short-lived storms is steadily increasing, but not necessarily because there are more now than existed in the past. The reason is likely due to better detection techniques combined with changing qualifications for naming. Twenty-storm seasons may become more common in the future, mostly due to short-lived tropical storms or subtropical storms, but the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes won't change much.
http://wxman57.com/images/Short-Lived.JPG
This right here why we could see a high number of named storms but a much lower number of hurricanes or major hurricanes this year and in coming years.
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