2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[EquusStorm]

I don't know if I would put money on a truly hyperactive season just yet since incredible years like 2008 didn't manage to get there - it usually takes luck of the draw and getting a massive 2017 esque outbreak or a very strong very slow moving hurricane or two to build ACE - but if we're not at least on the higher end of above average I'll still be surprised. Base state remains extremely impressive and if going by climatology this would be a major and unprecedented anomaly to be anything less than high end AA given such extreme indicators.

[toad strangler]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

I have the same feeling.

I keep rubbing my eyes but the date still says 8/11

[CyclonicFury]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

What seems off? We've already had two hurricanes when the average through this date is one. ACE is more than twice the average through this date. We're in a suppressed MJO phase right now and we're still likely going to have a tropical depression develop in the MDR over the next day or so. None of the last 11 years have had a major hurricane by this date. SAL seems nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year, mid-level RH has rebounded over the last two weeks in the MDR.

[MarioProtVI]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

It’s not 2013. Nice try though at trying to say it without mentioning it but I saw through that

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We have a record-breaking number of storms, near record low wind shear, record low sea level pressures, near record high sea surface temperatures, a record wet Africa, and people in this thread are saying something feels off. Lol.

[Steve]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

You didn't address many of the comments posted last time you said this. I always found you to be pretty intelligent and obviously curious. But if something seems off to you and you don't know what it is, maybe it isn't? I'm not going back to my other recent post from last time you said that, but there isn't anything "off" with the start of the season except that experts have mostly adjusted their season totals upward.

[stormlover2013]

We have a record-breaking number of storms, near record low wind shear, record low sea level pressures, near record high sea surface temperatures, a record wet Africa, and people in this thread are saying something feels off. Lol.

it's because they are only modeling hugging

[StruThiO]

We have a record-breaking number of storms, near record low wind shear, record low sea level pressures, near record high sea surface temperatures, a record wet Africa, and people in this thread are saying something feels off. Lol.

they will get absolutely dumpstered on in a few weeks as usual just like 2017...... and 2018...... and 2019......... and.......

[Steve]

We have a record-breaking number of storms, near record low wind shear, record low sea level pressures, near record high sea surface temperatures, a record wet Africa, and people in this thread are saying something feels off. Lol.

it's because they are only modeling hugging[/quote]

Lol. Ordinarily I would agree, but it was TheStormExpert who said it and he/she isn't really that much of a model hugger. Possibly it's impatience or needing hard proof to believe something (e.g. Thomas from the Bible)

[EquusStorm]

Just a reminder that last year we only had two named storms through August 19th - more than a week later than today - and ended the season with a total of eighteen. And that's only a moderately AA season. IF we have a backloaded season like nearly every season since 2014, it could still be rather easy to rack up massive totals.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just a reminder that last year we only had two named storms through August 19th - more than a week later than today - and ended the season with a total of eighteen. And that's only a moderately AA season. IF we have a backloaded season like nearly every season since 2014, it could still be rather easy to rack up massive totals.

if we just follow the 2019 pace from here (which shouldn't be that hard with much more favorable conditions), then we will reach the greeks or come extremely close.

i think we are underestimating what this season has already done. we have NINE named storms and TWO hurricanes already before we even got to mid august. that's crazy.

[KAlexPR]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1293254898168012803

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1293254898168012803

LOL he reads this forum

[mcheer23]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... h_full.png

CPC likes the MDR Aug 19-25th

[aspen]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

Possibly the sense of dread for what late August through September could bring, given the very high SSTs, record low Caribbean shear, record wet Africa, and high likelihood of AEWs being pumped out like crazy.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1293254898168012803

LOL he reads this forum

He reads this thread!

[FireRat]

Those who like to track storms and hurricanes have patience as they will eventually form. Is only August 11.

https://i.imgur.com/kzVXARW.jpg

I understand it’s only August 11th but something just seems off to me and I really don’t know what it is?

Possibly the sense of dread for what late August through September could bring, given the very high SSTs, record low Caribbean shear, record wet Africa, and high likelihood of AEWs being pumped out like crazy.

I'd say if anything is "off" is how ridiculously busy it has been during the early season, with storms like Hanna and Isaias even having existed... easily the busiest start to a season, hurricane-wise, since 2008 and 1996, and only below 2005 in the recent era. Isaias took a similar track to Bertha '96 too, except closer to south FL. This all happening in the early season.

Perhaps the feeling something is "off" is actually having to do with the feel of the Calm before the Storm. We're in the lull, the 'moat', between early season and peak season... and a short lull at that.

I say 8/25, two weeks from now, will be another story! Things are about to get nasty IMO.

[SFLcane]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

CPC likes the MDR Aug 19-25th

There you folks just a matter of time now.

[psyclone]

My gawd this thread....lol. I am more convinced than ever that we're right on schedule . Time for a soak in the 90 degree gulf

[TROPICALCYCLONEALERT]

I'm not quite sure why some people on this forum are adamant on canceling seasons before we even get to their bulk, including this one. A 6 day long lull does not mean that the remainder of the year will feature no hurricanes. That's just ridiculous. I also find it odd that people take notably flawed models as a godsend, and use them to push their own ideas about the hurricane season. Ideas that are contradicted with known evidence, and honestly seem like a major reach. Assuming that the CFS is fully factual, while knowing that it has persistently shown the two major standing waves breaking down without that actually happening? Yikes.

Taking 2020 as an example, we have some of the most favorable conditions on record lining up as we head towards September 10th. The current lull is a result of an intraseasonal wave (CCKW/MJO), which is presently traversing the Eastern Pacific. Usually, one would find typhoons (WPAC) and hurricanes (EPAC) associated with this pulse. But it appears as if the underlying conditions are unfavorable enough to prevent any major development thus far (no STY's in the WPAC, only C4 in the EPAC was Douglas that formed due to a strong CCKW earlier this year). The North Atlantic on the other hand, has one of the warmest MDR's on record, coinciding with near record low shear and MSLP. I also recall the West African Monsoon reaching unprecedented levels - which promotes westerlies in the MDR (causing further warming) and stronger African Easterly Waves. To top it off, the same MJO event that I mentioned earlier should be moving into the NATL by the end of this month into the start of September. That screams TC outbreak to me.

Now, I'm not going to say that this will equal or surpass 2005. It could, but that year is still an anomaly. And so is 2013, for that matter...