ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

I can see at least two swirls on the high-res 1-min loop. One is just below a burst of convection, the other is fully exposed a bit east of that. Very poorly-organized depression. Inflow is lacking, shear remains moderate. Could briefly become a TS east of the Caribbean, then it'll likely weaken to a remnant low (tropical wave) as it passes NE of the Caribbean.

[Visioen]

I'm really intrigued now by what strength it will be able to attain over the next few days. Better than Netflix.

[Nuno]

[GCANE]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

There ya go - sweet.

[GCANE]

That close-in tower is doing real well.
The convective anticyclone that just set up is helping it.
Not seeing any shear on the tower.
If it starts rotating CCW, its game on.

[Aric Dunn]

That close-in tower is doing real well.
The convective anticyclone that just set up is helping it.
Not seeing any shear on the tower.
If it starts rotating CCW, its game on.

The inner cloud lines nearest the center are starting to show towers beginning to build on the 1min hi res.. should be a nice fun burst

[ConvergenceZone]

I can see at least two swirls on the high-res 1-min loop. One is just below a burst of convection, the other is fully exposed a bit east of that. Very poorly-organized depression. Inflow is lacking, shear remains moderate. Could briefly become a TS east of the Caribbean, then it'll likely weaken to a remnant low (tropical wave) as it passes NE of the Caribbean.

http://wxman57.com/images/95Le.JPG

Hopefully it will go away fast. There will be plenty of other MUCH stronger storms to track soon. This storm is boring lol

[Aric Dunn]

moisture loop is closing.. convection building in all quads. A single tight llc, shear dropping, strong low level inflow and convergence.

seems to be keeping dry air out. should deepen.

[cycloneye]

AL, 11, 2020081218, , BEST, 0, 125N, 450W, 30, 1007, TD

At 1800 UTC, 12 August 2020, TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (AL11) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 12.5°N and 45°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 13 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[GCANE]

That'll erode the trof.
Stay tuned for future runs.

[GCANE]

Multiple overshooting tops firing thru the cirrus left by that big tower.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is tucking up under the convection between the large tower to the north and the tower to the west.. I wonder what over night convection will bring if it can do this at this time of day..

[GCANE]

Looking at current CIMSS, current UL winds about 5 knots over the CoC.
Was 20 knots earlier this morning.

[GCANE]

Those bubbling and boiling towers in that cirrus is seriously is getting this all stacked quickly.
Swirl has gotten underneath them.
This is heading deeper into the Anticyclone Wave Break with a stacked vort and convective anti-cyclone overhead.
Earlier I mentioned the cold pocket on top of the warm core.
If this is still intact, expect good intensification.

[Aric Dunn]

Towers firing around the center.. its deepening time..

[Orlando]

Starting to get a better picture of the current condition of the thermal profile of the core.
As expected, the warm core is slightly to the west of the center of circulation.
Air parcel trajectory is shown in pink.
A normal cold pocket is below the warm core which creates the updraft.
However, there is an unusually cold pocket above the warm core creating a greater than normal updraft as the air parcels swing by the warm core.
This is allowing the vortical hot towers to fire off at a pace that is above normal.
Any tower that fires close to the CoC will add latent heating into the core and cause an acceleration in strengthening.
I can't expressive enough that GFS is totally missing the boat on how this is modeling SAL / dry air involvement.
This TC is IMHO more prone to strengthening than currently being forecasted.

https://i.imgur.com/XZcDK3B.png

Bumping this thread up for the evening folks who may not read every page. Your service is invaluable as always. Thank you for keeping us informed.

[Nuno]

Would be surprised if this isn't designated as a TS by tonight. Anticyclone should protect it from shear to allow for strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Not a surprise it is organizing some. Models said it would over the next couple of days. But the wall of shear awaits...

[Chemmers]

Overshooting cloud top right be the coc, will be a ts in a matter off hours

[Aric Dunn]

Overshooting cloud top right be the coc, will be a ts in a matter off hours

Yeah tracking the center when it was exposed to about an hour ago when it became obscured under the CDO.. the current placement would be right under that large tower.