2020 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Guess what, a new area added west of Invest 92E.

2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late
this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the
coast of southwest Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple
of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is
possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward
into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

Nada mas for the major GFS cane in the EPAC, too close to the Mexican coastline.

[EquusStorm]

Aaaaaaand it's back on the 0z run, 945mb next Wednesday south of Cabo

[wx98]

Looks like we may be getting F, G, and H pretty fast here.

[gatorcane]

EPAC is acting like we have an El Nino

[SFLcane]

EPAC is acting like we have an El Nino

All part of the MJO signal slowly sliding east into the Atl.

[cycloneye]

2. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next few days before the system
reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to
move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

EPAC is acting like we have an El Nino

I’ll say!! Definitely caught me off guard as I wasn’t expecting much after the extremely slow and quiet start.

[Astromanía]

Well this is the second most active basin in the world after all, so it's possible to have some surprises when conditions are not the best

[EquusStorm]

We had a pretty impressive EPac outbreak in late September 2005 about the time Rita was rolling along at peak intensity, hard to keep the basin down sometimes even in seasons that wind up below average.

[gatorcane]

The GFS trough over the Eastern CONUS and Gulf is so deep, it looks to try and pull a cyclone northward into Mexico. What a trough for this time of year!

[Kingarabian]

The GFS trough over the Eastern CONUS and Gulf is so deep, it looks to try and pull a cyclone northward into Mexico. What a trough for this time of year!

Yeah I've been noticing the lack of heights over most of the EPAC and this is interesting because August-September tracks are predominately more west due to a more dominant subtropical ridge. It's allowing for storms to track closer to Mexico or move NW about 500 miles off of Baja. We'll see if this steering sticks around.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah you definitely don't usually see that sharp of a NE curve toward Mexico this time of year, if troughing verifies (and I'm not sure I fully buy it just yet) at least I can look forward to cooler temperatures here. I'll never say no to an early taste of fall

[Kingarabian]

Yeah you definitely don't usually see that sharp of a NE curve toward Mexico this time of year, if troughing verifies (and I'm not sure I fully buy it just yet) at least I can look forward to cooler temperatures here. I'll never say no to an early taste of fall

I would honestly lean towards weaker systems if this setup persists. Other than Elida (which struggled for the most part until it finally became a Cat.2), the best development we got was further west near 120W.

[cycloneye]

3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

The GFS trough over the Eastern CONUS and Gulf is so deep, it looks to try and pull a cyclone northward into Mexico. What a trough for this time of year!

Yeah I've been noticing the lack of heights over most of the EPAC and this is interesting because August-September tracks are predominately more west due to a more dominant subtropical ridge. It's allowing for storms to track closer to Mexico or move NW about 500 miles off of Baja. We'll see if this steering sticks around.

ITCZ being further north than usual is helping with this as well.

[Yellow Evan]

Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[gatorcane]

Down to 948MB on the 12Z GFS

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is located just offshore the Pacific
coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for a low to develop from this trough over the next few days, and
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF looking more bullish for the system the GFS insists will become a significant hurricane. Seems if the storm can stay away from Mexico, could become a major: