ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models

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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#41 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:20 am

Looks like the global models are going to have to be force-fed the fact that there will be a TS.. lol

Euro is not having any of it... GFS is not doing any better.

Will likely be a stronger farther south system in this case..

You ever try to get a child to eat their vegetables and they throw them at you... screaming nooooooooo ... and you keep putting the spoon and food back in their hand ???


well that is the Euro and GFS right now..

Now eat your TS ... no I dont want too. ... I said eat it !!

NO ...
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#42 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like the global models are going to have to be force-fed the fact that there will be a TS.. lol

Euro is not having any of it... GFS is not doing any better.

Will likely be a stronger farther south system in this case..

You ever try to get a child to eat their vegetables and they throw them at you... screaming nooooooooo ... and you keep putting the spoon and food back in their hand ???


well that is the Euro and GFS right now..

Now eat your TS ... no I dont want too. ... I said eat it !!

NO ...

Gonzalo II
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#43 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:32 am

The CMC brings it back from the dead on the east coast. Not totally out to lunch if this is a 2005 like season

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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#44 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:18 am

xironman wrote:The CMC brings it back from the dead on the east coast. Not totally out to lunch if this is a 2005 like season

https://i.imgur.com/YWXfthx.png

This is the second run in which the CMC has kept Josephine alive to the East Coast. I hope it’s not on to something, because the last thing we need in Connecticut is another tropical storm. Recovery from Isaias has already been problematic enough.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#45 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:05 pm

Image
Image
18z Guidance... Looping usually indicates some uncertainty in the modeling in the 5+ day range...
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#46 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:10 pm

and left the fun begin lol..

GFS and Euro Ensembles turning west and even wsw with some doing loops.. geee didnt see that coming lol
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#47 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:and left the fun begin lol..

GFS and Euro Ensembles turning west and even wsw with some doing loops.. geee didnt see that coming lol



That would be great, almost better than a TUTT the storm following behind would follow Josephines weakness out to sea! Models will change if the circulation stabilizes at TS strength or better but with the dry air around it wouldn't take much shear to turn this into a naked swirl in 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#48 Postby Kazmit » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:03 pm

Hurricane Jose-type track anyone? :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Models

#49 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:32 pm

A loop back to the west after it nears Bermuda is definitely not out of the question as the Bermuda ridge re-strengthens from there on into SE Canada by then. But first it has to survive the shear as it tracks north of the Lesser Antilles.
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Re: ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models

#50 Postby TheBigO » Fri Aug 14, 2020 4:17 pm

Have there been no new models for some reason?
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Re: ATL: JOSEPHINE - Models

#51 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Aug 15, 2020 5:26 am

Interesting...several models appear to be on board with showing possible regeneration with Josephine down the road. Someone mentioned in the main thread for the storm that we could see an Irene 2005-esque scenario, and honestly that might not be too far off if any of these solutions verify (although granted Irene never actually fully dissipated like Josephine is expected to do).

CMC
Image
ICON
Image
UKMET
Image
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 30.3N 66.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2020 132 30.8N 65.9W 1011 29
0000UTC 21.08.2020 144 31.1N 63.9W 1011 27

HWRF
Image
ACCESS-G
Image
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