CyclonicFury wrote:Hammy wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:At this point it probably won’t even get a name. Definitely underperforming!
The MDR seems like it's cursed (or blessed, depending on how you look at it

)
Kind of strange that we've had so much dry air and MDR struggles for so many back to back seasons, especially since nothing's really struggled elsewhere.
Not sure I agree on that one. 2017 had two Category 5s and a near-Category 5 in the MDR - all after August 30. 2018 had four hurricanes in the MDR despite a much cooler than normal MDR, three of which were in September. 2019 had no hurricanes in the MDR prior to September 18, then it had Jerry (a Category 2) and Lorenzo (a high end Category 4 in the MDR). If anything, the Caribbean has been the part of the basin that has been struggling lately (unless you are referring to the Caribbean as part of the MDR in this case).
I think it's more that the MDR isn't ready yet than a sign of the MDR being unfavorable all season. All 2010 had in the MDR prior to August 20 was a minimal tropical storm. 1998 and 1999, also big MDR years, didn't have much in the MDR yet at this point. 2003 had a weak depression and that's it. 2020 has already had 3 TCs form in the MDR so far.
The thing is the MDR has been less than ideal pretty much every year as a whole after 2010 with the exception of 2017, seemingly regardless of how active the season as a whole is. It's enough to be noticeable when everything has done a lot better outside of it than the storms that exist there--even this year, literally
nothing outside of the MDR has really struggled, and the three storms that we've had there have all faltered and generally under-performed the forecasts. Even Isaias didn't really take off until it reached the Caribbean.
Not at all saying storms won't form there but it's certainly a visible oddity over that particular region of the Atlantic and even the longer range modeling shows the bulk of the stronger activity either over the subtropical Atlantic, or western Atlantic/GoM.
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