ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

I'm seeing many outflow boundaries SW-NW of the convection - a sign of collapsing convection.

[ThetaE]

Looks like winds are stronger under deep convection, but circulation has elongated and is barely closed. But with the way the LLC is now better-positioned within the convection, and with clear signs that the storm is better ventilated than it was yesterday, I think this'll recover a more circular structure and be named a TS some time between 11am and 5pm.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1293906290868023306

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like winds are stronger under deep convection, but circulation has elongated and is barely closed. But with the way the LLC is now better-positioned within the convection, and with clear signs that the storm is better ventilated than it was yesterday, I think this'll recover a more circular structure and be named a TS some time between 11am and 5pm.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1293906290868023306

The time of that ASCAT is right when the center was being pulled into the deep convection.

there was definitely some re -orginization at that time. since then it has improved quite a bit.

and as you mentioned ... it is much better positioned now.

[NDG]

Plenty of 35 knot wind barbs.
This was at 11z when the LLC clearly was on its way in relocating closer to the convection the reason why it might have looked elongated.

[tiger_deF]

One important difference in 11 this morning is that the night's convection has been sustained through the AM with another meaty burst going on right now. Yesterday and the day before, by noon pretty much allnthe convection collapsed

[SouthDadeFish]

This looks like a strong tropical wave to me. If there is a LLC, it's very small. Overall, the system lacks organization. It seems repeated dry air intrusions have caused the system to have a pulsating convective structure. Everytime the convection collapses, it results in low-level divergence, which I suspect is the main reason the circulation is relatively weak.

[NDG]

I'm seeing many outflow boundaries SW-NW of the convection - a sign of collapsing convection.

Deep convection refiring.

[Nancy Smar]

It has developed into TS Josephine.

AL112020 - Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE
AL, 11, 2020081312, , BEST, 0, 134N, 486W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 70, 1010, 150, 70, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSEPHINE, M, 12, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,

[gfsperpendicular]

Well, there goes another one of 2005's genesis records, this one by a full 9 days.

[zhukm29]

Josephine following the footsteps of Henri and Ana... never a strong storm.

Meanwhile Kyle has been a hurricane the last two times it was used. Maybe an omen...?

[AnnularCane]

Deep convection refiring.

https://i.imgur.com/usGScUa.gif

She put on her amazing technicolor dreamcoat.

[aspen]

Well, there goes another one of 2005's genesis records, this one by a full 9 days.

This is going to make beating Katrina’s record easier, because it was named only a day or two after Jose; without Josephine being named this early, it would’ve been difficult for 2020 to beat both records.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking good. low level curvature to the cloud line continues to improve.

[HurricaneEnzo]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Still has decent enough conditions to work with currently but unless the shear moves out of the way looks like its time for strengthening will be limited.

[aspen]

50-55 kt seems like a good estimate for peak intensity, since it’s already at 40 kt and will have 24-36 hours in a generally favorable environment, but isn’t the best organized TS. I will be surprised if Josephine makes a run for C1 winds, but it’s a pretty tiny system and prone to intensity wings both up and down. Just look at Gonzalo — almost made it to hurricane status very early on, but couldn’t re-intensify.

[Aric Dunn]

Now lets see how the models react to a 45 mph TS and a 10 mb lower pressure vs an open wave lol

back to force feeding the models again..

[GCANE]

Now lets see how the models react to a 45 mph TS and a 10 mb lower pressure vs an open wave lol

back to force feeding the models again..

Close-in radial fingers on IR surrounding a warm-core feature.
That is one heck of an open wave.
With respect to the models, its more garbage in.
Looks like recon may go tomorrow.

[wxman57]

By the way, my crosshairs are centered on 13.7N / 49.2W, NHC's center position. It doesn't appear to have much of a low-level circulation. I'm not seeing an LLC where the NHC put it. It could be a little ENE of that point. Still very poorly-organized. Note that strong tropical waves can produce 40-50 mph winds with no well-defined LLC. We saw that with Isaias this year before recon finally closed off a circulation. I think Josephine will be weakening to a depression or remnant low by Saturday. It's often a fine line between a trof producing enhanced outflow and strong wind shear. Initially, as with Lily in 2002, a trof enhances the outflow. Later, it's strong wind shear, which is what tore Lily apart as it neared landfall.

[GCANE]

Looking at 12Z GFS shear 30+ hrs out.
Any track of Joe south of current forecast and that shear will not be shear but a very well developed outflow channel.
A lot of convective debris already flowing into the Bahamas from the convection off SC coast.
The more it sits there and fires, the more the upper-levels become to allow Joe to survive the guillotine.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure recon would find a well-defined low-level circulation this morning. However, looking at the satellite loop zoomed out, it does appear to be detaching from the tropical wave, which is what it needs to do to become better organized and have an LLC develop beneath the convection. it's still heading for a wall of shear beyond 24 hours, though. All models (global and HWRF) indicate peak intensity tonight followed by steady weakening.