2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[EquusStorm]

One thing to note with the EPac activity is, we did get a category two, but the basin-crossing development weakened, the new tropical depression is supposed to be barely a tropical storm, the new Invest off the Mexican coast is supposed to be short lived into cold water, and really only the newest area on the TWO to the south has much potential (and modeling has even trended weaker on that expected potential major) - certainly an outbreak of activity but definitely feels like a struggling outbreak in a basin that isn't gonna be the big show this year

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Models have latched onto a solution where the current 0/70 AOI is the last storm of this East Pacific outbreak. As that system moves westward, and as the MJO moves eastward, shear should begin to weaken by the end of next week. We will transition to the most favorable base state for Atlantic hurricane activity that most of us have seen. Whether that leads to a record-breaking period for activity is probably dependent on smaller scale factors at the time, but this is exactly the kind of pattern needed to meet or exceed current seasonal forecasts.

[captainbarbossa19]

An analysis of sea surface temperature on August 4th and an analysis taken earlier today. Note how the majority of the Western Atlantic has warmed since the fourth (especially the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico).

August 4th:


August 13th:

[Ivanhater]

The northern central gulf is cooking

[gatorcane]

Looking at the MJO forecast from the CFS, looks like it still has the wet phase moving into the Caribbean and Atlantic starting in the next week or two. It doesn’t look like the signal is particularly strong but probably enough to get some ramp up in Atlantic activity. But climo also says it should also ramp up as we move through Aug. If this pulse doesn’t produce, interesting how the CFS has the dry phase coming back for much of September. Do I believe that? Not really:

[StruThiO]

Meanwhile, in reality. Here's the wave behind Josephine, southwest of the Cabo Verde islands. While this is highly likely to not develop, as has been the case with many waves this year, scattered convection is firing and broad turning is evident.

This and TS Josephine are present during the most suppressive phase the MJO can be in in the Atlantic.



Would anyone like to guess what will happen when the current MJO pulse propagates eastward and constructively interferes with the standing wave of rising air located over Africa? Take a wild guess.

[aspen]

Meanwhile, in reality. Here's the wave behind Josephine, southwest of the Cabo Verde islands. While this is highly likely to not develop, as has been the case with many waves this year, scattered convection is firing and broad turning is evident.

https://imgur.com/fA8TcC1

This and TS Josephine are present during the most suppressive phase the MJO can be in in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/XgUYtZJ.png

Would anyone like to guess what will happen when the current MJO pulse propagates eastward and constructively interferes with the standing wave of rising air located over Africa? Take a wild guess.

The MJO pulse in week 1 will likely help with the 20/70 AOI in the EPac, but once the suppressive MJO lifts off of Africa by week 2 and the final week of August, activity should pick up in the MDR. I can only imagine the absolute madhouse the Atlantic will be once the MJO and African standing wave overlap.

[toad strangler]

.

[St0rmTh0r]

Meanwhile, in reality. Here's the wave behind Josephine, southwest of the Cabo Verde islands. While this is highly likely to not develop, as has been the case with many waves this year, scattered convection is firing and broad turning is evident.

https://imgur.com/fA8TcC1

This and TS Josephine are present during the most suppressive phase the MJO can be in in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/XgUYtZJ.png

Would anyone like to guess what will happen when the current MJO pulse propagates eastward and constructively interferes with the standing wave of rising air located over Africa? Take a wild guess.

Looks like it is organizing to me

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

And... I am sorry but I have to.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904

[toad strangler]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

And... I am sorry but I have to.

as you like to say.... BUCKLE UP!

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

And... I am sorry but I have to.

as you like to say.... BUCKLE UP!

Sleep now lol all I gotta say. Expecting a historic outbreak in a few weeks.

[aspen]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

I’ve been expecting 2020 to behave a bit like 2017 (and, to a lesser extent, 2018) where the peak of activity lasted from the end of August through the first half of October. That’s 3-4 storms in August, 5-7 in September, and 2-3 in October. However, if the Atlantic is going to be prime for development even until November, then this October could be one of the most active on record.

Assuming 3 more storms for the rest of August, 7 in September (2018/19 both had 6-7), 5 in October, and 1 in November, that’ll be a total of 26 named storms by the end of the season — almost as high as 2005.

[Hammy]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

That looks like a really unfavorable September setup.

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

That looks like a really unfavorable September setup.

Yeah, I don’t see how that’s a possible solution...

[CyclonicFury]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

That looks like a really unfavorable September setup.

Not really, upward motion over the Africa and IO is often a very favorable setup for MDR activity.

[Steve]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

I’ve been expecting 2020 to behave a bit like 2017 (and, to a lesser extent, 2018) where the peak of activity lasted from the end of August through the first half of October. That’s 3-4 storms in August, 5-7 in September, and 2-3 in October. However, if the Atlantic is going to be prime for development even until November, then this October could be one of the most active on record...

I don't have much of an opinion on this yet, but I'm paying attention. I've read and heard a few different people's opinions on how they think timing of the peak(s) of the season might go. I'd bet it's not going to go nonstop through November.
There are always breaks in a season because of all the major atmospheric changes that happen from August to November (all types, levels and from all directions). Patterns intensify and relax. MJO and Kelvin Waves come by. Fronts come down often with splitting troughs in La Nina so you need a few days to clear those patterns and have a weakness, etc.. I think I read someone suggest 3 weeks or so of activity, a break of a week or two and then another burst. Bastardi suggested that we might have a 6ish week period of intense activity and the not much after that. Others have said they think September and October will be busy.

?

[toad strangler]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

I’ve been expecting 2020 to behave a bit like 2017 (and, to a lesser extent, 2018) where the peak of activity lasted from the end of August through the first half of October. That’s 3-4 storms in August, 5-7 in September, and 2-3 in October. However, if the Atlantic is going to be prime for development even until November, then this October could be one of the most active on record...

I don't have much of an opinion on this yet, but I'm paying attention. I've read and heard a few different people's opinions on how they think timing of the peak(s) of the season might go. I'd bet it's not going to go nonstop through November.
There are always breaks in a season because of all the major atmospheric changes that happen from August to November (all types, levels and from all directions). Patterns intensify and relax. MJO and Kelvin Waves come by. Fronts come down often with splitting troughs in La Nina so you need a few days to clear those patterns and have a weakness, etc.. I think I read someone suggest 3 weeks or so of activity, a break of a week or two and then another burst. Bastardi suggested that we might have a 6ish week period of intense activity and the not much after that. Others have said they think September and October will be busy.

?

Noll's statement was "risks into November". Pretty sure nobody would read this as nonstop action, but rather a general favorable background state that will be anomalous to a peak centered burst and done regime.

[KAlexPR]

:eek:

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

That looks like a really unfavorable September setup.

That's actually the most favorable setup you could possibly get for enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. This pattern closely matches the hyperactive season VP anomaly composite.