ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Well no wind sampling in the strongest part of the Josephine for recon they are leaving..

pretty much a complete waste.

unless onboard radar got some good velocities sweeps of the convection.

[GCANE]

Those strat-cumulus clouds spewing out the NW side is filling in the dry slot nicely.
Should get a nice bump up in CAPE tomorrow as it approaches warmer waters.
If convection fires off then, NW of the CoC, the anticyclone will likely rotate there and Joe will track into it.
A TC tracking into an anticyclone usually brings about strengthening.

[GCANE]

Well no wind sampling in the strongest part of the Josephine for recon they are leaving..

pretty much a complete waste.

unless onboard radar got some good velocities sweeps of the convection.

They're thirsty.

[wxman57]

Looks like the plane found enough of an LLC well north of the forecast track to continue advisories. 35kts is questionable, though, but they won't downgrade something approaching the islands. Looks absolutely horrible on satellite now. One small area of squalls, multiple outflow boundaries. Won't last much longer.

[EquusStorm]

While it won't do much for the shear present, Josephine's suicide run into the SAL has moistened up a pretty decent chunk NE of the Lesser Antilles. Doubt that lasts too long with another plume drifting that way but dust overall looks a lot less like a wall across the tropics and more like a shallow spotty later very slowly fading with climo every day.

[GCANE]

A reprieve for Josephine from the Guillotine

[tiger_deF]

Looks like the plane found enough of an LLC well north of the forecast track to continue advisories. 35kts is questionable, though, but they won't downgrade something approaching the islands. Looks absolutely horrible on satellite now. One small area of squalls, multiple outflow boundaries. Won't last long.

Those strat-cumulus clouds spewing out the NW side is filling in the dry slot nicely.
Should get a nice bump up in CAPE tomorrow as it approaches warmer waters.
A TC tracking into an anticyclone usually brings about strengthening.

I've always loved the diversity of opinion on here

[GCANE]

Looks like the plane found enough of an LLC well north of the forecast track to continue advisories. 35kts is questionable, though, but they won't downgrade something approaching the islands. Looks absolutely horrible on satellite now. One small area of squalls, multiple outflow boundaries. Won't last long.

Those strat-cumulus clouds spewing out the NW side is filling in the dry slot nicely.
Should get a nice bump up in CAPE tomorrow as it approaches warmer waters.
A TC tracking into an anticyclone usually brings about strengthening.

I've always loved the diversity of opinion on here

They are high-altitude strat-cumulus clouds.
If you look at ice/snow imagery, you can see ice/snow coming off the top of some of them.

[Aric Dunn]

A reprieve for Josephine from the Guillotine

https://i.imgur.com/Wn036BK.png

The only Guillotine was coming from people hugging the ASCAT data... which is always tricky.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the plane found enough of an LLC well north of the forecast track to continue advisories. 35kts is questionable, though, but they won't downgrade something approaching the islands. Looks absolutely horrible on satellite now. One small area of squalls, multiple outflow boundaries. Won't last long.

Those strat-cumulus clouds spewing out the NW side is filling in the dry slot nicely.
Should get a nice bump up in CAPE tomorrow as it approaches warmer waters.
A TC tracking into an anticyclone usually brings about strengthening.

I've always loved the diversity of opinion on here

They are high-altitude strat-cumulus clouds.
If you look at ice/snow imagery, you can see ice/snow coming off the top of some of them.

Zero reasons to downgrade. evidence pointed towards winds being even higher, closer to 45 maybe 50 mph. since recon avoided the deep convection as they were flying very low. and oddily enough the overall appearance of Josephine has been improving all day with this burst of convection over the center. despite the shear.

[GCANE]

Looks like the plane found enough of an LLC well north of the forecast track to continue advisories. 35kts is questionable, though, but they won't downgrade something approaching the islands. Looks absolutely horrible on satellite now. One small area of squalls, multiple outflow boundaries. Won't last long.

Those strat-cumulus clouds spewing out the NW side is filling in the dry slot nicely.
Should get a nice bump up in CAPE tomorrow as it approaches warmer waters.
A TC tracking into an anticyclone usually brings about strengthening.

I've always loved the diversity of opinion on here

They are high-altitude strat-cumulus clouds.
If you look at ice/snow imagery, you can see ice/snow coming off the top of some of them.

Can also tell the anticyclone is to the SW

[Aric Dunn]

I know they are professionals. and full respect of course..

but this is an issue..

"The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 1004 mb, and the combination
of flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
35 kt."


Recon completely avoided the deep convection where winds were likely higher. ..


this is like hiking mount Everest and only checking the weather half way up. lol

[BYG Jacob]

Not to call you out WXMAN, but Joesephine looks pretty good honestly

[Hammy]

A reprieve for Josephine from the Guillotine

https://i.imgur.com/Wn036BK.png

Did the center actually reform mid-mission?

[tiger_deF]

Josephine really is a lady of the evening/night, every morning I wake up, look at IR loops, and get ready to write her off but by the evening she without fail has looked significantly better

[TheAustinMan]

A reprieve for Josephine from the Guillotine

https://i.imgur.com/Wn036BK.png

Did the center actually reform mid-mission?

I'd say it's been in the process of reforming. Throughout Josephine's life we've seen the mid-level circulation remain generally northwest of the low-level center, which was typically broad and diffuse. A couple of scatterometer passes from the early morning hours today, before recon ever got there, suggested that a center reformation was in process. The old center was becoming rather frail and diffuse, and the displacement of the mid-level center allowed it to gain its own surface reflection amid the decaying influence of the other circulation. By the time recon got there, the newly formed surface circulation related to the convectively active mid-level circulation solidified, which is what we saw in the data. I'd say recon sampled the storm right around the time the new center became dominant.

[GCANE]

A reprieve for Josephine from the Guillotine

https://i.imgur.com/Wn036BK.png

Did the center actually reform mid-mission?

IR Imagery showed it was a high-helicity tower.
So, likelyhood it was.
Even a C130 flying at 2500' avoided the drowndraft.

[Aric Dunn]

Funny thing...

the SE mid level shear appears to have come to an end...

and now there is some westerly upper level shear..

looking at some of the towers to west in the outer bands the shear appears to be all in the upper levels...

meaning this might have a better chance of survival if the mid level westerly shear is low.

[Aric Dunn]

Partial eyewall feature trying to develop? interesting. ...

[ozonepete]

Funny thing...

the SE mid level shear appears to have come to an end...

and now there is some westerly upper level shear..

looking at some of the towers to west in the outer bands the shear appears to be all in the upper levels...

meaning this might have a better chance of survival if the mid level westerly shear is low.

You can tell from the satellite loops that the shear is dropping ahead of it. The improving alignment of the LLC and MLC also indicates shear is dropping. How much? We need more upper air data and model runs before we can say.

It's still too early to draw any conclusions, but there is now some indication that tomorrow the intensity forecasts may have to change.