2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

[stormlover2013]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

https://i.postimg.cc/kg8yG5zx/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-41.png

Gfs sucks

[BYG Jacob]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

https://i.postimg.cc/kg8yG5zx/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-41.png

This is blatant cherry picking. You are also ignoring the very well known flaws of the GFS

[Hammy]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

https://i.postimg.cc/kg8yG5zx/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-41.png

Gfs sucks

Neither the Euro or GFS showed any storms, or even low pressures, in their 120 hour forecast for today.

[StruThiO]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

https://i.postimg.cc/kg8yG5zx/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-41.png

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1293914771515944960

[Hurricaneman]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

https://i.postimg.cc/kg8yG5zx/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-41.png

Gfs sucks

Neither the Euro or GFS showed any storms, or even low pressures, in their 120 hour forecast for today.

The models haven’t been exactly stellar when it comes to cyclogenesis until there’s actually something there this year

[KAlexPR]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

https://i.postimg.cc/kg8yG5zx/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-41.png

Gfs sucks

Neither the Euro or GFS showed any storms, or even low pressures, in their 120 hour forecast for today.

The models have clearly struggled with the transition to upward motion in the Atlantic, as every factor laid out by the experts points to a very active peak. Said experts have pointed out flaws in modeling and advice caution when interpreting them to avoid cherry picking a desired outcome. To add, models often struggle to detect TC outbreaks more than 2-3 days out, which is exactly what occurred in August 2017 when the season was cancelled countless times.

[TheDreamTraveler]

How many models showed Kyle forming? Not only that we have 2 storms in the atlantic during an unfavorable time before August 15th, still breaking record territory with naming. Looking at the models and assuming no storms are going to spin up isn't wise considering things will become more favorable and it'll be the heart of the season in a few weeks.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Gfs sucks

Neither the Euro or GFS showed any storms, or even low pressures, in their 120 hour forecast for today.

The models haven’t been exactly stellar when it comes to cyclogenesis until there’s actually something there this year

Yeah I've noticed that this year, definitely, especially the GFS. Not sure why people are banking on it so much considering how poorly it has done this year regarding cyclogenesis. In several situations it has had to play catch-up in extreme fashion; perhaps the worst examples of this being Hanna and Douglas. Take a look at this. Just awful.



Don't have a full GIF for Douglas but this is what it had early on. Just one measly closed isobar when in reality it eventually became a cat 4 east of the Hawaiian islands.


It also took forever to finally latch on to developing Isaias, but I don't have a GIF for that unfortunately. Bottom line is that the GFS has been far from reliable this season. Honestly I would chalk it up to lack of observational aircraft data but none of the other models seem to be struggling this much. Could be something with the FV3 core? Not entirely sure, but if that's the case, I would expect NOAA to take a good long look at the upgrade in the offseason, especially if it continues to bungle cyclogensis detection like this for the remainder of the season - could be dangerous.

[gatorcane]

Zilch on the GFS rest of month in the Atlantic. As some of said shows even more in the EPAC, at least a few more storms that spin up:

https://i.postimg.cc/kg8yG5zx/gfs-mslpa-Norm-epac-41.png

This is blatant cherry picking. You are also ignoring the very well known flaws of the GFS

I am just posting model runs and making observations which is what this thread if for. The Euro has zilch also the next 10 days with lower pressures in the EPAC and over CA:

[StruThiO]

Neither the Euro or GFS showed any storms, or even low pressures, in their 120 hour forecast for today.

The models haven’t been exactly stellar when it comes to cyclogenesis until there’s actually something there this year

Yeah I've noticed that this year, definitely, especially the GFS. Not sure why people are banking on it so much considering how poorly it has done this year regarding cyclogenesis. In several situations it has had to play catch-up in extreme fashion; perhaps the worst example of this being Hanna. Take a look at this. Just awful.

https://i.ibb.co/MSCM7z7/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-trend-1.gif

It also took forever to finally latch on to developing Isaias, but I don't have a GIF for that unfortunately. Bottom line is that the GFS has been far from reliable this season. Honestly I would chalk it up to lack of observational aircraft data but none of the other models seem to be struggling this much. Could be something with the FV3 core? Not entirely sure, but if that's the case, I would expect NOAA to take a good long look at the upgrade in the offseason, especially if it continues to bungle cyclogensis detection like this for the remainder of the season - could be dangerous.

Oooh fun! Let's do the King next.



Oh, look. Garbage.

[TheProfessor]

Yes this is the models thread, but we should also be using the models correctly. In that case you should never use run to run deterministic models to try to decipher a pattern 10+ days out. There's just too much uncertainty and lack of skill that far out to take anything as gospel. What you should use are probabilistic models(Ensembles) as a guide to see how the extended range pattern looks. And when you do look at these models you'll see that the EPS, Para-GEFS, and GEPS all show an uptick in activity over the next couple of weeks. That's what we should be watching.

[tolakram]

PLEASE READ

Any more personal attacks, repeating posts, or snark at other members will result in a board warning and or suspension.

This board is a supposed to be a friendly place to discuss tropical weather and we've let it stray too far from that objective. I think each of you is smart enough to recognize when you cross the line, so don't. There is a report button and if you believe a post violates S2K rules then use it, and do not reply.

[Hammy]

How many models showed Kyle forming? Not only that we have 2 storms in the atlantic during an unfavorable time before August 15th, still breaking record territory with naming. Looking at the models and assuming no storms are going to spin up isn't wise considering things will become more favorable and it'll be the heart of the season in a few weeks.

GFS didn't even have so much as a low pressure, or even defined trough of any sort, 72 hours ago. I was going to post this with my earlier post, but of course got sidetracked and never uploaded it, but the GFS/Euro today, and how the forecast from five days ago showed things.

[crownweather]

Use the deterministic models with EXTREME caution. They haven't done so well this season w/ picking up storms ahead of time.

The ensembles may be the way to go with at least picking out the increase in activity. Both GEPS (Canadian) and GEFS-PARA (GFS ensemble parallel) are pretty consistent in showing a pretty substantial uptick in activity VERY soon.

[tiger_deF]

Ironic that despite the models showing a massive EPAC outbreak and an Atlantic lull, there are currently 2 named storms in the Atlantic and not a single one in the Pacific

[eastcoastFL]

Neither the Euro or GFS showed any storms, or even low pressures, in their 120 hour forecast for today.

The models haven’t been exactly stellar when it comes to cyclogenesis until there’s actually something there this year

Yeah I've noticed that this year, definitely, especially the GFS. Not sure why people are banking on it so much considering how poorly it has done this year regarding cyclogenesis. In several situations it has had to play catch-up in extreme fashion; perhaps the worst examples of this being Hanna and Douglas. Take a look at this. Just awful.

https://i.ibb.co/MSCM7z7/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-trend-1.gif

Don't have a full GIF for Douglas but this is what it had early on. Just one measly closed isobar when in reality it eventually became a cat 4 east of the Hawaiian islands.
https://i.ibb.co/XZJYVMx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-cpac-24.png

It also took forever to finally latch on to developing Isaias, but I don't have a GIF for that unfortunately. Bottom line is that the GFS has been far from reliable this season. Honestly I would chalk it up to lack of observational aircraft data but none of the other models seem to be struggling this much. Could be something with the FV3 core? Not entirely sure, but if that's the case, I would expect NOAA to take a good long look at the upgrade in the offseason, especially if it continues to bungle cyclogensis detection like this for the remainder of the season - could be dangerous.

Is that real? The gfs developed a hurricane over Texas?

[Hammy]

The models haven’t been exactly stellar when it comes to cyclogenesis until there’s actually something there this year

Yeah I've noticed that this year, definitely, especially the GFS. Not sure why people are banking on it so much considering how poorly it has done this year regarding cyclogenesis. In several situations it has had to play catch-up in extreme fashion; perhaps the worst examples of this being Hanna and Douglas. Take a look at this. Just awful.

https://i.ibb.co/MSCM7z7/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-trend-1.gif

Don't have a full GIF for Douglas but this is what it had early on. Just one measly closed isobar when in reality it eventually became a cat 4 east of the Hawaiian islands.
https://i.ibb.co/XZJYVMx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-cpac-24.png

It also took forever to finally latch on to developing Isaias, but I don't have a GIF for that unfortunately. Bottom line is that the GFS has been far from reliable this season. Honestly I would chalk it up to lack of observational aircraft data but none of the other models seem to be struggling this much. Could be something with the FV3 core? Not entirely sure, but if that's the case, I would expect NOAA to take a good long look at the upgrade in the offseason, especially if it continues to bungle cyclogensis detection like this for the remainder of the season - could be dangerous.

Is that real? The gfs developed a hurricane over Texas?

It's the model trend--each frame is closer to the same date, and essentially shows that the farther out you went, the less the GFS had there (and about three days or so out only showed showers moving onshore)

[MississippiWx]

Ironic that despite the models showing a massive EPAC outbreak and an Atlantic lull, there are currently 2 named storms in the Atlantic and not a single one in the Pacific

I don’t know how to emphasize this more. The important factor to note is these storms keep forming despite less than ideal conditions. Those conditions change to very favorable in a week or two...for a while.

I’d be very interested to know why models continue to struggle with TC genesis so much in the Atlantic this year. Maybe some smart person will eventually figure it out.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ironic that despite the models showing a massive EPAC outbreak and an Atlantic lull, there are currently 2 named storms in the Atlantic and not a single one in the Pacific

I don’t know how to emphasize this more. The important factor to note is these storms keep forming despite less than ideal conditions. Those conditions change to very favorable in a week or two...for a while.

I’d be very interested to know why models continue to struggle with TC genesis so much in the Atlantic this year. Maybe some smart person will eventually figure it out.

i don't know the technicalities of this, but it is clear that the models are underestimating the atlantic's background state and doing the opposite for the epac.

the models are each basin like like it is 2014 or 15 it seems.