ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

Looks a bit south and west of where it was expected. Right at the edge of the convection. Hard to see it hitting 19.6N by 11.

[GCANE]

Possible CoC just west of the tower.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon finds Josephine very much struggling this morning as expected. The low-level circulation is on the very edge of convective activity, and the extrapolated pressure is up about 5mb to 1009mb versus the flight yesterday afternoon. The environment only becomes more hostile over the next 24 hours.

[wx98]

Looking pretty weak so far per recon. Let’s see if they find any wind to the east.

[xironman]

Looking pretty weak so far per recon. Let’s see if they find any wind to the east.

You'd have to figure that the best winds would be under that convection. Definitely looks like it hit a wall of shear, but the further south it stays the better off it is.

[GCANE]

Apparently, its the 355K PV Streamer that is the current problem.
We'll see how this holds up.
Could look bad this afternoon.

[aspen]

If the CMC, ICON, and UKMET are right, Josephine could reform and become stronger in the central Atlantic. The 00z ICON even gets it to Cat 1 status next week. All we have to do is wait and put up with this mess of a storm, and hopefully it’ll become a more interesting fish system down the road.

[aspen]

Recon is finding 40 kt SFMR readings, so it was a good call to maintain the 12z best track intensity at 40 kt.

[GCANE]

All SFMR & rain-rate readings are being flagged.
However, there are 46 knot flight-level winds at 925 mb that are in the clear.

[GCANE]

Strong, refiring tower with gravity waves north of the main convection.
If it holds together, it may try and cutoff the PV Streamer.
Main convection has a good moist boundary-layer infeed.
That was a good drop by recon.

[GCANE]

One in-the-clear 30-sec-avg SFMR at 35 knots.

[Jr0d]

Doubt it will maintain storm status today, I expect to really start to fall apart throughout the day...doubtful the remnants will do anything, but some of the less realiable hint at regeneration down the road.

Now lets watch that blob coming off Africa!

[GCANE]

Now seeing some ice in the cirrus from the strat-cumulus clouds pushing away from the tower.
Looks like it may try and take out the PV Streamer.
Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

47 knot in-the-clear flight-level close to the center.

[GCANE]

Looks like the center is reforming, maybe more under the convection.

[GCANE]

Yup, PV streamer is weakening.
I thought it would take longer.
See if this holds up.

[GCANE]

Measured 1007mb at 17 knots FL.
Definitely strengthening.
See some improvement on the PVS impingement using UL WV.

[Aric Dunn]

Poor models, hopefully they figure out what the problem is this year.. because i feel like we have back tracked 20 years in model reliability this year..

[GCANE]

[abajan]

Now seeing some ice in the cirrus from the strat-cumulus clouds pushing away from the tower.
Looks like it may try and take out the PV Streamer.
Stay tuned.

https://i.imgur.com/6ABE0aJ.png

Were/Are you an MD who's accustomed to viewing and interpreting x-rays? I'm seeing nada.