Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[ouragans]

Models have been hinting a system coming from a high latitude over Western Africa. A robust wave might be the next one to follow

[aspen]

12z CMC develops this in the central MDR in 5-6 days and has it hit the northern Lesser Antilles as a strong TS on August 23rd/24th.

[ouragans]

Euro Ens has this system hitting Eastern Caribbean by August 21 ou 22 as a TS, 6 members are on it

[cycloneye]

CMC:

[SFLcane]

CMC:

https://i.imgur.com/V8hLdfe.gif

Ok CMC...

[EquusStorm]

CMC may be often over-eager, but its performance with Gonzalo (and assuming it's picking out conditions that should be about to get quite favorable soon) when almost nothing else noticed it has me convinced it's definitely worth keeping an eye on

[aspen]

CMC:

https://i.imgur.com/V8hLdfe.gif

Ok CMC...

CMC has been doing a little better than most of the global models this year. It sniffed out Gonzalo when the rest of the globals failed, and I recall it showing Kyle as well. I forget if it tried to develop Josephine too.

If the GFS can stop thinking that the MJO is going to go backwards into the Pacific, I could see it catching onto this as well.

[CyclonicFury]

06z EPS had some modest support for this.

[abajan]

Looks healthy on splashdown:

[toad strangler]

Look healthy on splashdown:

https://i.imgur.com/iWDr9gO.gif

Still shaking off the lions and zebras

[cycloneye]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

[aspen]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

https://i.imgur.com/MD9uF5c.gif

One of the members got below 970 mbar before going off screen. And there’s yet another wave behind it...models are really starting to light up now.

[AnnularCane]

Look healthy on splashdown:

https://i.imgur.com/iWDr9gO.gif

I love that term "splashdown." Makes me think of the waves cannonballing into the Atlantic.

[johngaltfla]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

https://i.imgur.com/MD9uF5c.gif

Yeah, I usually do not jump on to the model party early, but conditions are damned near perfect for this sucker to intensify before the Windward/Leeward Islands.

[abajan]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

https://i.imgur.com/MD9uF5c.gif

Yeah, I usually do not jump on to the model party early, but conditions are damned near perfect for this sucker to intensify before the Windward/Leeward Islands.

Chance of a mention in the 8 PM TWO. We'll know shortly.

[SconnieCane]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

https://i.imgur.com/MD9uF5c.gif

One of the members got below 970 mbar before going off screen. And there’s yet another wave behind it...models are really starting to light up now.

Yeah, a number of those get to Cat. 2+ hurricane-type pressures, which we haven't seen a lot of from the models until now.

[abajan]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

https://i.imgur.com/MD9uF5c.gif

Yeah, I usually do not jump on to the model party early, but conditions are damned near perfect for this sucker to intensify before the Windward/Leeward Islands.

Chance of a mention in the 8 PM TWO. We'll know shortly.

Another wave beat it to the punch.

[gatorcane]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

https://i.imgur.com/MD9uF5c.gif

One of the members got below 970 mbar before going off screen. And there’s yet another wave behind it...models are really starting to light up now.

These are the same Euro ensembles that were really bullish for the wave that spawned Isaias and we know it took much longer to get that wave to develop than what they were showing. These ensembles actually look weaker than what they showed for Isaias. Model consensus is not too bullish in general at the moment which could change. Not saying we don’t watch this wave as it is the time of year but whether it develops before the Lesser Antilles or at all for that matter is very much in question.

[aspen]

Euro ensembles has many members with wave.

https://i.imgur.com/MD9uF5c.gif

One of the members got below 970 mbar before going off screen. And there’s yet another wave behind it...models are really starting to light up now.

These are the same Euro ensembles that were really bullish for the wave that spawned Isaias and we know it took much longer to get that wave to develop than what they were showing. These ensembles actually look weaker than what they showed for Isaias. Model consensus is not too bullish in general at the moment which could change. Not saying we don’t watch this wave as it is the time of year but whether it develops before the Lesser Antilles or at all for that matter is very much in question.

We were dealing with late July climatology for 92L/Isaias. Now that it’s the second half of August with an incoming favorable MJO, overall conditions should be more conductive for these two waves than they were for Isaias and its precursor.

[Keldeo1997]

Has rotation already.