Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[StruThiO]

00z gfs develops this

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 1600&fh=54

[cycloneye]

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to split this wave with the northern part breaking off and dissipating while the southern part develops in the western Caribbean, definitely need to watch this as it seems quite favorable in the Caribbean

[Blown Away]

12z EURO brings this wave as a TD/TS into the NE Caribbean and dissipates as it moves over Hispaniola with the remnants moving over E Cuba and into EGOM as it turns N. Have to watch if the Euro misses Hispaniola in future runs does this wave develop?

As of now this wave has the most potential to become a hurricane and ride under the ridge at least to 80W IMO...

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some
development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the
week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the
system is over the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

Yep, IMO the coming off the coast will be a classic CV storm and large HP forecasted, this may be the big hurricane through the Caribbean and/or CONUS. Globals for now taking it over big islands,..

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave located just west of the coast of Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days,
and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part
of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while
the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

00z gfs develops this

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 1600&fh=54

06Z GFS drops it. May have a chance but once it gets beyond 5 days, maybe not before it reaches the islands.

[Steve H.]

Convection starting to pop south of the Cape Verdes.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at this morning's visible... I have zero doubt this will be a TC sooner rather than later.. very impressive.

[MJGarrison]

Looks like a bit of SAL also coming off Africa.


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[NDG]

12z CMC develops this AEW as early as Wednesday but very little if any strengthening before reaching the Lesser Antilles late Friday as it interacts with the SAL to its north, is not until it shows it approaching P.R. & Hispaniola that strengthens it further. It shows it re-strengthening after passing Hispaniola with fairly good UL conditions all along its path across the Antilles into the GOM.

[WxEp]

12z UKMET developing this wave pretty quickly...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.5N 39.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.08.2020 14.5N 41.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2020 15.8N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2020 16.5N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2020 17.5N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2020 18.8N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2020 19.4N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 20.2N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET joins on developing the wave.

[gatorcane]

looking at this morning's visible... I have zero doubt this will be a TC sooner rather than later.. very impressive.

It has some negatives going against development for the next 5 days. Dry air is the issue now as seen on vis imagery. Then there looks to be an upper trough in its path NE of the Lesser Antilles if the GFS is right. Could make things pretty hostile at least for a few days. Beyond that the EPS is certainly lighting up so it could develop downstream perhaps once west or 60W:

[Aric Dunn]

looking at this morning's visible... I have zero doubt this will be a TC sooner rather than later.. very impressive.

It has some negatives going against development for the next 5 days. Dry air is the issue now as seen on vis imagery. Then there looks to be an upper trough in its path NE of the Lesser Antilles if the GFS is right. Could make things pretty hostile at least for a few days. Beyond that the EPS is certainly lighting up so it could develop downstream perhaps once west or 60W:

https://i.postimg.cc/4dtsWVjn/gfs-shear-atl-18.png

Unfortunately, i am not even remotely going to listen to any model for environmental conditions or strength. and only take synoptic reasoning into consideration.. models are absolutely poppycock this year.

Now casting out 24 hours based on current conditions is the only way to go right now.

[NDG]

looking at this morning's visible... I have zero doubt this will be a TC sooner rather than later.. very impressive.

It has some negatives going against development for the next 5 days. Dry air is the issue now as seen on vis imagery. Then there looks to be an upper trough in its path NE of the Lesser Antilles if the GFS is right. Could make things pretty hostile at least for a few days. Beyond that the EPS is certainly lighting up so it could develop downstream perhaps once west or 60W:

https://i.postimg.cc/4dtsWVjn/gfs-shear-atl-18.png

With the GFS keeping the MJO on the EPAC side of course is going to show hostile conditions near the Lesser Antilles.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

2. Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This
wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to
latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more
conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[NDG]

2. Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This
wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to
latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more
conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

They are throwing the GFS out the window and paying attention to the CMC and Euro ensembles. IMO

[MississippiWx]

One thing I’ve noticed this season in the MDR is the nearly constant pure westerlies. It’s no wonder everything tries to develop with such constant spin in the lower levels. The MDR, while still a bit dry, is much more moist than it was a month ago. There will probably be a time in the coming month or two where every single wave that comes off Africa develops or gives it a good shot.

The environment for this one should be better than most of the others that spawned TC’s previously.