Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 97L)

[Aric Dunn]

Development chances pre Carrib also increasing..

COnvection showing signs of trying to organize. with some convection building in curved bands on the NW and SE side..

It clearly already has a circulation but partially attached to the ITCZ.

[WxEp]

12z UKMET - Location and timing similar to the 12z CMC but UKMET is a bit farther north.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 18.1N 84.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 19.1N 85.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[psyclone]

Development certainly looks possible once it nears the Western Caribbean. That is where the wave should slow its forward speed and convection should start to “pile up” not to mention a large anticyclone should be there.

I think you're on target here. That also matches nicely with the system engaging the incoming favorable mjo transiting from the EPAC.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a fast-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the
Windward Islands. This system is expected to move westward at
about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is
likely to limit significant development while the system approaches
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Monday, and moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system
is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for
development during the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

100 dollars.. says as this nears the islands.. just before it crosses into the carrib it becomes a TD/ maybe weak TS.. any takers ?

[MississippiWx]

This potential Caribbean action seems so foreign. Looks like the waves are lining up to cruise the Caribbean. Places in the Western Caribbean have been lulled to sleep in recent years. Hope this one isn’t a rude wake up call.

[tailgater]

Smells like a invest is in the oven, Idk about a td before the Windwards but I do think they will get some squally weather. If it does develop a closed coc and maintains that to the WCarb. then someone is gonna be a little worried(moi).

[Aric Dunn]

With the 12z Euro darn near closed off in 36 hours as it is about to cross into the carrib. It would not take much more organization to become a TD/TS.

Invest is definitely coming soon now that the Euro is showing this.

[eastcoastFL]

I keep looking at the wrong thing. Is the group of storms to the west of this wave associated with it? The nhc puts this wave around 50w. The group of t storms I’m referring to extends from 55w to 60w.

[ronjon]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

[abajan]

I keep looking at the wrong thing. Is the group of storms to the west of this wave associated with it? The nhc puts this wave around 50w. The group of t storms I’m referring to extends from 55w to 60w.

That's probably mostly a flareup of the ITCZ.

[SconnieCane]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

"If Charley and Irma decided to join forces..."

[DestinHurricane]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

"If Charley and Irma decided to join forces..."

Charley and Ivan.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro doesn’t do much with this. Sends it into northern Mexico/STX as a wave.

[sma10]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

Not sure I recall simultaneous imminent threats to N Gulf Coast / Bahamas, SE FL before. Could get interesting

[SconnieCane]

We could be in trouble in the NE GOM in about a week if 12z ICON correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081612&fh=240

"If Charley and Irma decided to join forces..."

Charley and Ivan.

Nah, Irma would be the one north of the GA heading into the Turks and Caicos/southern Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

large surge of moisture and convection quickly being pulled in from the south.. curvature continues to increase with convection start to really expand..

cant believe this is not an invest yet...

[tailgater]

I keep looking at the wrong thing. Is the group of storms to the west of this wave associated with it? The nhc puts this wave around 50w. The group of t storms I’m referring to extends from 55w to 60w.

That's probably mostly a flareup of the ITCZ.

Wave axis is about 51W and trying to close off near 12.5N
Looking better than Josephine right now.

[sma10]

large surge of moisture and convection quickly being pulled in from the south.. curvature continues to increase with convection start to really expand..

cant believe this is not an invest yet..

It even started to look like banding convection started building today on the NE side

[aspen]

large surge of moisture and convection quickly being pulled in from the south.. curvature continues to increase with convection start to really expand..

cant believe this is not an invest yet...

https://i.ibb.co/NCvDb8K/LABELS-19700101-000000-14.gif

I could see this getting bumped up to 60-70% in 5 days for the 8pm TWO.