Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[AxaltaRacing24]

2. Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This
wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to
latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more
conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

They are throwing the GFS out the window and paying attention to the CMC and Euro ensembles. IMO

it honestly doesn’t matter what the gfs says until it figures out its deal with the mjo.

the euro, cmc, and icon look more realistic for the time being.

[cycloneye]

2. Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This
wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to
latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more
conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

They are throwing the GFS out the window and paying attention to the CMC and Euro ensembles. IMO

it honestly doesn’t matter what the gfs says until it figures out its deal with the mjo.

the euro, cmc, and icon look more realistic for the time being.

And UKMET joined at 12z.

[SFLcane]

Here is the UK close to you Luis..

[sma10]

2. Another tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This
wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to
latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more
conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

They are throwing the GFS out the window and paying attention to the CMC and Euro ensembles. IMO

More likely I think, they are doing as Aric says above - nowcasting, with less reliance on models than usual.

[WxEp]

Even the 12z GEFS is now showing signs of life for this wave later down the road.

[aspen]

12z Euro develops this as early as 48 hours out and tracks it just north of the Greater Antilles like Irma, but keeps it weak and has it starting to die around 144-168 hours.

[Ubuntwo]

12z Euro develops this as early as 48 hours out and tracks it just north of the Greater Antilles like Irma, but keeps it weak and has it starting to die around 144-168 hours.

At hour 192, looks like it starts tightening up. Not what you want to see tracking into the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Run ends this way.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO setting up classic CV storm moving W across Atlantic, then over NE Caribbean, into SE Bahamas, through FL Straits, and turns N over EGOM... This one has the look...

[NDG]

We're probably within hours of this AEW being declared an Invest as models little by little are coming on to agreement in developing it.

[SFLcane]

Eps will sure get your attention.

[toad strangler]

Eps will sure get your attention.

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/16/b3d33febf78b0c7f62a9856079fb18e5-full.png

I was afraid of that.....

[St0rmTh0r]

This really looks like the big one talk about bad timing with Bermuda high building back strong.

[St0rmTh0r]

Run ends this way.

https://i.imgur.com/ePzdM9J.gif

That's the last thing you want to see in late August of a hyperactive year!

[EquusStorm]

Boy things have escalated in the last 24 hours. I'd say the lull was nice while it lasted, but we didn't even really get one with Josephine active through most of it.

[Blown Away]

The trend I’ve seen with the globals move storms to fast in the 5+ days out timeframe...

[SFLcane]

Interesting trend...EPS

[AutoPenalti]

This is the one to watch, although something tells me this will struggle to develop because of how fast it’s going.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm...

[SFLcane]

Folks this one just has the look! Very impressed.. odds should continue to go for development.