ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2020081618, , BEST, 0, 123N, 506W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, al792020 to al972020,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121131

[Aric Dunn]

I was wondering how long they could hold out..... looking very good.. quickly organizing.

overshooting tops in the middle of already deep towers..

[aspen]

97L has been producing a lot of convection today, and it’s possible it could become a TD much earlier than anticipated, but we’ll have to see if it persists and tries to get better organized within the next 24 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think this is the start to absolute craziness when it comes to hurricane season. The next 3 to 4 weeks is going to brutal. Buckle down!

[wx98]

Here we go...
Will this become the first serious Caribbean threat of the year?

[Nimbus]

Big burst of convection at sunset west of 50 and at low latitude scary.

[drezee]

My Storm2K Family, here starts the sprint we have anticipated. Ensure you have gotten sleep, pulled your hurricane kit together, checked your generator, etc. WXMAN57 your days will be long for a while. Aric and GCane, you will be right a lot in this type of phase. Keep us up to date! Pace yourselves and be safe!

97L has the look now and was naked a day ago. Surface pressures must be lowering at this point. Max coming...

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m waiting for wxman to post that it’s not going to develop into much, hehe. I don’t blame him though, If I was a Met who had to work long hours during hurricanes seasons when storms developed, I’m sure Iwould do the same thing and try and will them away. I’m sure he deserves every vacation he gets!!!

We’ll see if this invest will be a semi long tracker or not. Much to early to say. Although not too Far East, so wouldn’t technically be a long tracker

[EquusStorm]

That's the quickest flipping of the switch I can remember. Obviously fully expected but wow, from only scattered indications last night to increasing consensus of major action and an invest today.

[CaribJam]

97L has the potential to be a massive system, with moisture from the south and west to feed from.

[DestinHurricane]

If it develops I would have to guess an Ivan like track (not intensity!) this early. Really has been a while since we've seen a real Caribbean cruiser.

[shiny-pebble]

Its weird thinking of the Caribbean as a favorable place for development after all the seasons it's been the graveyard, lol

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[eastcoastFL]

Its weird thinking of the Caribbean as a favorable place for development after all the seasons it's been the graveyard, lol

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Well there wouldn’t be a better year for things to start growing out of graveyards...

[StruThiO]

Anticyclone aloft...

[StruThiO]

Ships makes this a hurricane

[ConvergenceZone]

I think all the models will start jumping on board on developing this. They just haven’t looked at the calendar yet

[eastcoastFL]

I was looking back at storms that formed in this region during similar set ups across the Atlantic. 2004 was pretty similar set up wise and saw quite a few develop in this general area. It looked Bonnie Charlie and Earl all formed around where 97l is now. Ivan aNd Frances bit further east I believe and Jeanne a little further north.

[Cpv17]

I was looking back at storms that formed in this region during similar set ups across the Atlantic. 2004 was pretty similar set up wise and saw quite a few develop in this general area. It looked Bonnie Charlie and Earl all formed around where 97l is now. Ivan aNd Frances bit further east I believe and Jeanne a little further north.

You also have to look when it forms though. It’s mid August.

[CyclonicFury]

Not really sure why the global models aren't developing this more. It already has a decent vorticity signature and convection has been building near the diurnal minimum. It will likely move too fast to develop for the next few days but once it slows down in the central Caribbean, development becomes more likely.

[eastcoastFL]

I was looking back at storms that formed in this region during similar set ups across the Atlantic. 2004 was pretty similar set up wise and saw quite a few develop in this general area. It looked Bonnie Charlie and Earl all formed around where 97l is now. Ivan aNd Frances bit further east I believe and Jeanne a little further north.

You also have to look when it forms though. It’s mid August.

Charlie formed August 9th