ATL: MARCO - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[TheProfessor]

The weakness that the Euro develops on the east coast then retrogrades into the Gulf states is not what you want to see with a tropical system lurking about. The Canadian sends this wave into Texas, but depending on the timing I think we could see a track more like Ivan or even Charley if the system is stronger and the Euro is correct on the pattern. It wouldn't surprise me to see this thing yanked out of the Caribbean.

[TheProfessor]

Here's today's Euro.



The CMC is even more defined with the trough.



This is going to be a classic case of weak=west and strong=east. If we see a strong storm earlier on, then I think it will become a problem for the eastern GoM and Cuba. If it stays weak then it becomes an issue for Texas and Louisiana(where it could strengthen quickly in the Gulf.).

[South Texas Storms]

Not only that, but a lot will depend on the speed of this system. The slower it moves, the more time it allows ridging to build in north of the system over the Gulf. The big trough over the northern Gulf looks to dissipate and shift westward in a little over a week based on the latest guidance.

[eastcoastFL]

CMC landfalls as 991mb storm central Texas coast

[eastcoastFL]

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Not only that, but a lot will depend on the speed of this system. The slower it moves, the more time it allows ridging to build in north of the system over the Gulf. The big trough over the northern Gulf looks to dissipate and shift westward in a little over a week based on the latest guidance.

Yep, speed will be important as well. It's currently expected to move at 20 mph the next couple of days. It will be important to see if it's keeping up with that estimate or is lagging behind.

[jlauderdal]

CMC landfalls as 991mb storm central Texas coast

CMC has been getting more love this year than previous 5 combined

[eastcoastFL]

CMC landfalls as 991mb storm central Texas coast

CMC has been getting more love this year than previous 5 combined

Not sure If that’s because it’s been performing well or just because the others have been so awful...

[stormlover2013]

Gfs has been so bad

[TheProfessor]

The GFS highlights the importance of intensity as the storm approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Low and even mid-level steering is fairly weak, so a weaker storm will both move more westerly and slower. It will also be pretty heavily sheared in the upper levels. However, a stronger storm(well organized hurricane perhaps) that taps into upper level steering will have a more northerly or northeasterly component and will be moving in the direction of the shear. With the low level steering being fairly weak the actual disruptive shear would be pretty minimal. Definitely something to watch over the next few days. Short term differences in intensity and location could have a huge effect on where this wave goes.

[Kingarabian]

CMC landfalls as 991mb storm central Texas coast

CMC has been getting more love this year than previous 5 combined

It got updated in 2018 and since then it hasn't been the CMC of old.

[WxEp]

The GFS highlights the importance of intensity as the storm approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Low and even mid-level steering is fairly weak, so a weaker storm will both move more westerly and slower. It will also be pretty heavily sheared in the upper levels. However, a stronger storm(well organized hurricane perhaps) that taps into upper level steering will have a more northerly or northeasterly component and will be moving in the direction of the shear. With the low level steering being fairly weak the actual disruptive shear would be pretty minimal. Definitely something to watch over the next few days. Short term differences in intensity and location could have a huge effect on where this wave goes.

Really appreciate your analysis of the future situation of 97L on this thread so far. This type of analysis is great stuff and one of the reasons I have been coming to S2K since the mid 2000's.

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/pRfWBiD.png

https://i.imgur.com/YFD2WON.png

https://i.imgur.com/vWFQYKW.png

The GFS highlights the importance of intensity as the storm approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Low and even mid-level steering is fairly weak, so a weaker storm will both move more westerly and slower. It will also be pretty heavily sheared in the upper levels. However, a stronger storm(well organized hurricane perhaps) that taps into upper level steering will have a more northerly or northeasterly component and will be moving in the direction of the shear. With the low level steering being fairly weak the actual disruptive shear would be pretty minimal. Definitely something to watch over the next few days. Short term differences in intensity and location could have a huge effect on where this wave goes.

So you’re saying 97L has no chance to develop if it goes towards the western Gulf? But if it goes towards the eastern Gulf it will be more developed?

[Cpv17]

Gfs has been so bad

It looks like it’s loaded with shear when 97L gets there. But that’s probably because it still wants to have an active epac. So it’s failing to progress the MJO over to the Atlantic.

[TheProfessor]

https://i.imgur.com/pRfWBiD.png

https://i.imgur.com/YFD2WON.png

https://i.imgur.com/vWFQYKW.png

The GFS highlights the importance of intensity as the storm approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Low and even mid-level steering is fairly weak, so a weaker storm will both move more westerly and slower. It will also be pretty heavily sheared in the upper levels. However, a stronger storm(well organized hurricane perhaps) that taps into upper level steering will have a more northerly or northeasterly component and will be moving in the direction of the shear. With the low level steering being fairly weak the actual disruptive shear would be pretty minimal. Definitely something to watch over the next few days. Short term differences in intensity and location could have a huge effect on where this wave goes.

So you’re saying 97L has no chance to develop if it goes towards the western Gulf? But if it goes towards the eastern Gulf it will be more developed?

No, I'm basically saying that if 97L moves into the western Gulf it will likely be as a weaker system than it would be if it's moving more poleward earlier on. Once the storm is in the western Gulf and that ridge builds overhead(the western solution is a slower one and gives more time for the ridge to build back in.) then it's all systems go and we'll likely see a rapidly developing tropical system like Hanna and Harvey.

[Cpv17]

https://i.imgur.com/pRfWBiD.png

https://i.imgur.com/YFD2WON.png

https://i.imgur.com/vWFQYKW.png

The GFS highlights the importance of intensity as the storm approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Low and even mid-level steering is fairly weak, so a weaker storm will both move more westerly and slower. It will also be pretty heavily sheared in the upper levels. However, a stronger storm(well organized hurricane perhaps) that taps into upper level steering will have a more northerly or northeasterly component and will be moving in the direction of the shear. With the low level steering being fairly weak the actual disruptive shear would be pretty minimal. Definitely something to watch over the next few days. Short term differences in intensity and location could have a huge effect on where this wave goes.

So you’re saying 97L has no chance to develop if it goes towards the western Gulf? But if it goes towards the eastern Gulf it will be more developed?

No, I'm basically saying that if 97L moves into the western Gulf it will likely be as a weaker system than it would be if it's moving more poleward earlier on. Once the storm is in the western Gulf and that ridge builds overhead(the western solution is a slower one and gives more time for the ridge to build back in.) then it's all systems go and we'll likely see a rapidly developing tropical system like Hanna and Harvey.

Ok I understand now. Thanks

[Steve]

ICON at 18z (TT has only to 120 hours) shows 97L is likely to miss Central America to the NE. It could still hit Belize or the Yucatan. Or it might could go through the Channel. We'll have to wait until about 10:30 tonight to see the next 60 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 618&fh=120

[aspen]

ICON at 18z (TT has only to 120 hours) shows 97L is likely to miss Central America to the NE. It could still hit Belize or the Yucatan. Or it might could go through the Channel. We'll have to wait until about 10:30 tonight to see the next 60 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 618&fh=120

What’s really important is how it’s showing 97L as a developed TC by 120 hours out, as well as future-98L. Both systems could get bumped up to 70-80% in 5 days in the next TWO, or that of tomorrow morning.

[SFLcane]

There is a trof in the gulf that will likely bring this north eventually.