WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

90W.INVEST

[Nancy Smar]

Oh my god, you are so fast.

JMA has mentioned this system as a low pressure area.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

Oh my god, you are so fast.

JMA has mentioned this system as a low pressure area.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.

I am checking the navy site often but you are fast too and more active in posting invests (I don't really care posting invests outside of WPAC) I just happen to be in checking mode...

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm GFS suddenly wants to develop this

[Hayabusa]

90W INVEST 200817 1800 10.2N 136.2E WPAC 15 1005

WWJP27 RJTD 171800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 139E WEST 20 KT.

[euro6208]

Indeed.

Timeframe getting closer starting in 84 hours.

Peaks at 960 mb, up from 954 mb in the 12z run.

[gatorcane]

So far Euro not on board.

[doomhaMwx]

EURO ensembles are now into development as well.



Huge difference with the previous run(s):

[euro6208]

EURO now has something, 1004 mb, into Japan.

GFS still says a direct typhoon landfall for Okinawa and mainland Japan. Quite intense.

[euro6208]

Rakes the Southern Ryukyu Islands before a Korean landfall.

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

A good number of EURO ens members have this becoming quite strong near the Ryukyus. Even a couple of <950mb members there.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191000Z-200600ZAUG2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZAUG2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.5N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE NOTED IN A 190759Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE IS DISORGANIZED,
HOWEVER SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A PARTIAL 190045Z ASCAT-A PASS
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
CIRCULATION IN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONTAINS WEAK CORE WINDS OF
10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER 20-25 KTS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE BOHOL SEA DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN HIGH
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY CHANGES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

Next name, Bavi...

[euro6208]

GFS has been very consistent.

[euro6208]

Checked out the other globals from my usual GFS and EURO... NAVGEM goes balistic.



CMC, ICON on the same boat.

[Hayabusa]

Some very strong Euro ensembles in the strong 12Z run, the minimum I saw is 928 mb.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Hugging the western portion of the basin is probably the way to go right now given the TUTT activity further east. Guidance solutions offer up a vague Jelawat '12ish type track.

[euro6208]

Invest 90W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 20, 2020:

Location: 15.6°N 122.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb