Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#101 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:31 am

USTropics wrote:00z ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.ibb.co/HChwDmW/73284851.gif

for the people saying that all the ensembles were weak today, there were some sub 960's there....
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2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#102 Postby N2FSU » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:48 am

0z CMCImage


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2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#103 Postby N2FSU » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:49 am

0z EuroImage


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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#104 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:56 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
USTropics wrote:00z ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.ibb.co/HChwDmW/73284851.gif

for the people saying that all the ensembles were weak today, there were some sub 960's there....


Here is a closer look at the 00z ECMWF ensembles that show development and potential landfall locations (not all are shown here). Quite a few strong members, and a plethora of possible solutions still:
Image
Last edited by USTropics on Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#105 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:20 am

For SFL this one to watch no doubt. Closer look at overnight EPS.

Image

Image
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#106 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:34 am

06z GFS hurricane into Yucatan then western Gulf.

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#107 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:34 am

06Z GFS is very strong in SW GOM.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#108 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:35 am

Image

Image
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#109 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:42 am

Landfall just south of Brownsville, Texas.

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#110 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:56 am

That's new...

:double:
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#111 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:17 am

No invest yet with this wave.. Development probability will likely continue to go up.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#112 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:21 am

SFLcane wrote:No invest yet with this wave.. Development probability will likely continue to go up.


Invest 98L will be up shortly.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#113 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:26 am

I see the GFS's last two runs finally decided to join the rest of the models of developing the TW as little by little starts letting go of overdoing continuing development on the EPAC side.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#114 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:30 am

Crazy the right biased GFS if way left of the left biased EURO with this wave...
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#115 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:35 am

Image
06z GFS..

Image
00z EURO...
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#116 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:35 am

Another tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. The wave is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few
days, and environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the
middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#117 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:49 am

00z UKMET...

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#118 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:11 am

Just a hair N of the Eastern Hebert Box
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#119 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:14 am

Probability for a TD 80-85%

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands

#120 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:14 am


I can’t believe it, the GFS actually develops something substantial in the Atlantic!

In all seriousness, a track like that would be very bad. The GFS sees RI into a major as it Mexico and Texas in the Gulf, and since SSTs in the region are almost entirely at least 30C, that’s a bad sign for any system going in there.
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