ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Can anyone tell me how you view the sst’s on TT?

Here is the ocean's section so you can select what you want to see about the sst's.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[Kingarabian]

Can anyone tell me how you view the sst’s on TT?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[GeneratorPower]

If this becomes the L storm, what would be the name?

Laura.

Pronounced LOOR-ruh.
Yep. Here we go again.

As for me and my house, we will say Laura.

[Steve]

If this becomes the L storm, what would be the name?

Laura.

Pronounced LOOR-ruh.
Yep. Here we go again.

French pronunciation I think because most of the other languages we use would be more toward the A than U sound. I live in a French city and lots of people said George-es back in ‘98 instead of Zhorj.

[Aric Dunn]

Partial ASCAT pass. looks like it is closed. but likely still attached to the ITCZ to the west.

but this is half the battle. if it keeps the convection going through tomorrow could see this develop quicker.

[sma10]

Laura.

Pronounced LOOR-ruh.
Yep. Here we go again.

French pronunciation I think because most of the other languages we use would be more toward the A than U sound. I live in a French city and lots of people said George-es back in ‘98 instead of Zhorj.

Isnt LOOR-ruh the usual pronunciation of that name? The only other alternative I guess would be LAOW-ruh

[Hurricane Mike]

Pronounced LOOR-ruh.
Yep. Here we go again.

French pronunciation I think because most of the other languages we use would be more toward the A than U sound. I live in a French city and lots of people said George-es back in ‘98 instead of Zhorj.

Isnt LOOR-ruh the usual pronunciation of that name? The only other alternative I guess would be LAOW-ruh

Laura is pronounced the American English way, like "Laura Bush".

Laura was the replacement name for Hurricane Lili of 2002.

[sma10]

French pronunciation I think because most of the other languages we use would be more toward the A than U sound. I live in a French city and lots of people said George-es back in ‘98 instead of Zhorj.

Isnt LOOR-ruh the usual pronunciation of that name? The only other alternative I guess would be LAOW-ruh

Laura is pronounced the American English way, like "Laura Bush".

Laura was the replacement name for Hurricane Lili of 2002.

Exactly. That's what I figure

The irony is this system may actually end up Marco if the system behind develops first

[Steve]

Some forerunner for the trough is moving through now. Windy in the 30’s and st warning. Trough itself should bring a day or two of hot sunny weather then all bets are off as to how it splits (weakness left behind? cut off low? etc.). Its behavior along with the western heat ridge and Atlantic high pressure look like three important upper features in later steering.

[Hurricaneman]

I believe that the path of this will depend on its strength, a weaker storm will head to Texas/Mexico while a stronger storm will head to Anywhere between New Orleans to Tampa so stay tuned to as the storm turns

[cycloneye]

A fast-moving tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is expected to move
westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast
forward speed is likely to limit significant development while the
system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today,
and moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday
and Wednesday. After that time, however, the system is expected to
move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean Sea, where
upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development
of a tropical depression during the latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands beginning this evening through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[GCANE]

Rossby Wave dives deep into the GOM by the time this hits the mid Carib according to GFS.
If this holds, I doubt it'll be just a wave by then.

[GCANE]

I would say better than even odds this goes thru the Yucatan Channel

[GCANE]

At this point all the globals are showing a ton of shear in the GoM as it arrives due to the close proximity of the Rossby wave.
After that, what happens in the GoM is debatable.

[cycloneye]

A fast-moving tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is expected to
move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that
fast forward speed is likely to limit significant development while
the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands
today, and moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, however, the system is
expected to move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean
Sea, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the
development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands beginning today through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

This is definitely boogying... passing barbados over the next few hours. looking good.

convection was not able to hold overnight at the wave axis so chances of development before islands is low.

but things looking good starting tomorrow and Wed for this to really come together.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looking like this could be our first 'Caribbean Cruiser' type track since Ernesto in 2012. Ernesto stayed weak most of its trek though and only got its act together shortly before landfall. The last powerhouse Cruisers were Dean and Felix as others have mentioned. It sure has been a long time coming if 97L can pull it off.

[eastcoastFL]

Fast movement with slow development until it slows down to feed off of the Carib

A fast-moving tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is expected to
move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that
fast forward speed is likely to limit significant development while
the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands
today, and moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, however, the system is
expected to move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean
Sea, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the
development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands beginning today through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking like this could be our first 'Caribbean Cruiser' type track since Ernesto in 2012. Ernesto stayed weak most of its trek though and only got its act together shortly before landfall. The last powerhouse Cruiser were Dean and Felix as others have mentioned. It sure has been a long time coming if 97L can pull it off.

It looks like models want to bring it towards the Yucatán channel... Could set up a Charlie type track if the trough does its thing. Charlie also formed in the same area around the same time.

[eastcoastFL]

The gfs suddenly makes this a strong cane heading for tex/mex border at 956mb. Hopefully that’s not a trend