ATL: MARCO - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Finally GFS peters this out as it heads toward Brownsville.
https://i.imgur.com/j9iN8oy.png

I’m thinking that the GFS is giving into its non development bias and or erroneously killing the system, the GFS bias of sending kelvin waves and MJO east to west

[shah83]

Fundamentally, I think there are real problems with the modeling of intensity going on. We need to talk more about why these models keep these systems as weak as they are for so long...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Fundamentally, I think there are real problems with the modeling of intensity going on. We need to talk more about why these models keep these systems as weak as they are for so long...

in very basic terms, it is because the background state of this season is more favorable than the models think it is.

they are poorly handling indicators such as the mjo, shear, and much more.

[captainbarbossa19]

Finally GFS peters this out as it heads toward Brownsville.
https://i.imgur.com/j9iN8oy.png

Images of Hanna are suddenly resurfacing in my mind.

[CrazyC83]

Finally GFS peters this out as it heads toward Brownsville.
https://i.imgur.com/j9iN8oy.png

Images of Hanna are suddenly resurfacing in my mind.

A strong Southern US ridge would do just that. Allen 1980 and Dean 2007 (track, hopefully not intensity) could also be reasonable analogs.

[USTropics]

GFS-Para ensembles have really been hinting at this scenario for a good part of a week now. Some very strong signals on the 00z run:

[USTropics]

00z CMC operational:

[USTropics]

Will be interesting to see the ECMWF ensembles tonight, CMC is inline with the new GFS-Para ensembles:

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF operational has no development in the Caribbean, wave axis tracks into the BOC:

[USTropics]

Development on the ensembles starts around 4-5 days. With previous storms in the Atlantic this season, the GFS/ECMWF start to pick up on development about ~72 hours from actual development. We'll see if that trend continues. You can see on the GFS operational ensembles below, while not nearly as active as the GFS Para ensembles, if development occurs a track through the Yucatan Channel and even western Cuba is definitely in the cards. No/weak development likely will lead to a faster motion through the Yucatan Peninsula.

[Aric Dunn]

funny thing about the Euro is that 97L and the wave behind it arrive in the gulf roughly the same time. which seems unrealistic.

[catskillfire51]

funny thing about the Euro is that 97L and the wave behind it arrive in the gulf roughly the same time. which seems unrealistic.

Also interesting to me is that 97L makes it towards the upper Texas coast as a weaker system but the stronger system stays more south... Shouldn't that be the other way around?

[Blown Away]

funny thing about the Euro is that 97L and the wave behind it arrive in the gulf roughly the same time. which seems unrealistic.

It seems 97L would trend further S into the Yucatan and into BOC... Future 98L seems to be on a WNW track at least to 75W...

[SouthFLTropics]

It wouldn't be the models page without...

FWIW NAVGEM

[eastcoastFL]

[SoupBone]

Finally GFS peters this out as it heads toward Brownsville.
https://i.imgur.com/j9iN8oy.png

Images of Hanna are suddenly resurfacing in my mind.

A strong Southern US ridge would do just that. Allen 1980 and Dean 2007 (track, hopefully not intensity) could also be reasonable analogs.

We've had some serious high pressure in place over Texas for weeks now. Of course it could diminish.

[Senobia]

Development on the ensembles starts around 4-5 days. With previous storms in the Atlantic this season, the GFS/ECMWF start to pick up on development about ~72 hours from actual development. We'll see if that trend continues. You can see on the GFS operational ensembles below, while not nearly as active as the GFS Para ensembles, if development occurs a track through the Yucatan Channel and even western Cuba is definitely in the cards. No/weak development likely will lead to a faster motion through the Yucatan Peninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/G9prvQi.png

What's right there in the Gulf causing this curve toward Florida, some sort of high pressure ridge?

[Ivanhater]

I did say the place to watch is the NW Caribbean the last week of August. Here we go

[FLpanhandle91]

Fort Walton Beach, Florida here. The 00z CMC is a nightmare.

[Steve]

This is where we are for a possible Gulf 1-2 punch:

Canadian (00Z)
97L - Pensacola/Navarre 1am Monday looks like midgrade TS
Trailing Wave - Ocean Springs/Pascagoula Cat 2ish Wednesday night (974 on model)

GFS (06Z)
97L - Washes out off Brownsville Tuesday night
Trailing Wave - Brownsvile/Matamoros Cat 2-3 Friday morning 1am (968 on model)

EC (00Z)
97L - wave stays low and moves into southern Mexico
Trailing Wave - Approaching WFL Wednesday night as TS/Cat 1 as ridge over the top is not connected. Hard turn toward the lifting out trough