Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Cpv17]

GEPS Ensembles paint a concerning picture for at least the Antilles and the Bahamas and it isn't looking great for the CONUS either.

https://i.imgur.com/U0O42CP.gif

Man that looks bad for Florida.

[ScottNAtlanta]

JB was all over this wave in his update this morning. He is extremely bullish about it. Looks like if it stays north of the Islands it could make that ominous turn west as the high strengthens. He did say there is an opportunity for it to come up (but then again he always seems to see some reason things will come up). Bottom line is this wave is no joke.

[toad strangler]

GEPS Ensembles paint a concerning picture for at least the Antilles and the Bahamas and it isn't looking great for the CONUS either.

https://i.imgur.com/U0O42CP.gif

Man that looks bad for Florida.

Way too far out. Where this goes in relation to the Greater Antilles will be interesting. I mentioned the Hebert Box this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone notice the other developing circ just to the west of this? .. 6z euro shows both interacting and the precise interaction will be key to consolidation location.. how far north/south etc.

Euro also might be indicating the circ to the west actually develops instead.. and the circ south of the cape verde lifts north..

this could be why the euro is so much faster than the other models and farther north.

dont hold your breath.. because either GFS side of things change or the Euro depending on which area develops.

[ScottNAtlanta]

GEPS Ensembles paint a concerning picture for at least the Antilles and the Bahamas and it isn't looking great for the CONUS either.

https://i.imgur.com/U0O42CP.gif

Man that looks bad for Florida.

Looks worse for LA. Thats a Katrina-like track
Just to make sure...we are talking about the wave at 35W, correct?

[toad strangler]

GEPS Ensembles paint a concerning picture for at least the Antilles and the Bahamas and it isn't looking great for the CONUS either.

https://i.imgur.com/U0O42CP.gif

Man that looks bad for Florida.

Looks worse for LA. Thats a Katrina-like track

Katrina developed very far to the W in the Bahamas. This likely will be a different story.

[ScottNAtlanta]

anyone notice the other developing circ just to the west of this? .. 6z euro shows both interacting and the precise interaction will be key to consolidation location.. how far north/south etc.

Euro also might be indicating the circ to the west actually develops instead.. and the circ south of the cape verde lifts north..

this could be why the euro is so much faster than the other models and farther north.

dont hold your breath.. because either GFS side of things change or the Euro depending on which area develops.

https://i.ibb.co/gtmw8gb/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/Zd0JKXm/modezrpd-20200818-1800-animation.gif

https://i.ibb.co/9qfGBDx/83053647.gif

It's the front one JB was all over.
It also looks to be developing some low level spin

[ScottNAtlanta]

Man that looks bad for Florida.

Looks worse for LA. Thats a Katrina-like track

Katrina developed very far to the W in the Bahamas. This likely will be a different story.

Just to be clear...wasn't implying another Katrina...just noting similar track

[ouragans]

anyone notice the other developing circ just to the west of this? .. 6z euro shows both interacting and the precise interaction will be key to consolidation location.. how far north/south etc.

Euro also might be indicating the circ to the west actually develops instead.. and the circ south of the cape verde lifts north..

this could be why the euro is so much faster than the other models and farther north.

dont hold your breath.. because either GFS side of things change or the Euro depending on which area develops.

https://i.ibb.co/gtmw8gb/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/Zd0JKXm/modezrpd-20200818-1800-animation.gif

https://i.ibb.co/9qfGBDx/83053647.gif

This might explain why it's not an Invest yet. Which of the 2 vorts is to be chosen an 98L?

[ScottNAtlanta]

anyone notice the other developing circ just to the west of this? .. 6z euro shows both interacting and the precise interaction will be key to consolidation location.. how far north/south etc.

Euro also might be indicating the circ to the west actually develops instead.. and the circ south of the cape verde lifts north..

this could be why the euro is so much faster than the other models and farther north.

dont hold your breath.. because either GFS side of things change or the Euro depending on which area develops.

https://i.ibb.co/gtmw8gb/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/Zd0JKXm/modezrpd-20200818-1800-animation.gif

https://i.ibb.co/9qfGBDx/83053647.gif

This might explain why it's not an Invest yet. Which of the 2 vorts is to be chosen an 98L?

They might end up having to tag both of them. The western wave is really getting organized. You can see the low level inflow spinning into the area where the convection is firing off on the north end. If this continues it wont be long before there is a depression. There are certainly no dry air worries now.

[cycloneye]

The above may explain why we dont have the invest yet.

[CaribJam]

anyone notice the other developing circ just to the west of this? .. 6z euro shows both interacting and the precise interaction will be key to consolidation location.. how far north/south etc.

Euro also might be indicating the circ to the west actually develops instead.. and the circ south of the cape verde lifts north..

this could be why the euro is so much faster than the other models and farther north.

dont hold your breath.. because either GFS side of things change or the Euro depending on which area develops.

https://i.ibb.co/gtmw8gb/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/Zd0JKXm/modezrpd-20200818-1800-animation.gif

https://i.ibb.co/9qfGBDx/83053647.gif

This might explain why it's not an Invest yet. Which of the 2 vorts is to be chosen an 98L?

Are they sufficiently far apart to be two separate systems?

What are the models suggesting/hinting?

[Hurricaneman]

anyone notice the other developing circ just to the west of this? .. 6z euro shows both interacting and the precise interaction will be key to consolidation location.. how far north/south etc.

Euro also might be indicating the circ to the west actually develops instead.. and the circ south of the cape verde lifts north..

this could be why the euro is so much faster than the other models and farther north.

dont hold your breath.. because either GFS side of things change or the Euro depending on which area develops.

https://i.ibb.co/gtmw8gb/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/Zd0JKXm/modezrpd-20200818-1800-animation.gif

https://i.ibb.co/9qfGBDx/83053647.gif

This might explain why it's not an Invest yet. Which of the 2 vorts is to be chosen an 98L?

They might end up having to tag both of them. The western wave is really getting organized. You can see the low level inflow spinning into the area where the convection is firing off on the north end. If this continues it wont be long before there is a depression. There are certainly no dry air worries now.

Is it possible both Vorts develop and we get Laura and Marco while we get Nana from 97L

[Hurricaneman]

Well, looks like the lid has popped off and it looks like the ride will be quite rough

[TheStormExpert]

JB was all over this wave in his update this morning. He is extremely bullish about it. Looks like if it stays north of the Islands it could make that ominous turn west as the high strengthens. He did say there is an opportunity for it to come up (but then again he always seems to see some reason things will come up). Bottom line is this wave is no joke.

He just wants something to ALWAYS hit the NE U.S.!

[WeatherEmperor]

ICON much stronger approaching the SE Bahamas.....




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[TheStormExpert]

There’s still plenty of shear out there but pro Mets. are saying it should clear this week.

[Cpv17]

Yikes @ the 12z ICON.

[WeatherEmperor]

ICON at 180hrs. It shows the system moving WNW at the end of the run.......




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[toad strangler]

12z ICON AIN'T PRETTY.
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