Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#161 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:45 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:ICON at 180hrs. It shows the system moving WNW at the end of the run.......

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200817/721afc4732c0e887ec6cf06accd15f90.jpg


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Look at that high over the southeast. That looks like it wants to go through the straits and into the Gulf.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#162 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:45 am

12z ICON hot off the press... :eek:

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#163 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:49 am

Westward bound...Only way to go with that blocking high.

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#164 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:50 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:ICON at 180hrs. It shows the system moving WNW at the end of the run.......

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200817/721afc4732c0e887ec6cf06accd15f90.jpg


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Oh wow! :eek:
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#165 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:50 am

That's the "Cat4 into S FL" possibility for this thing.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#166 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:53 am

SFLcane wrote:That's the "Cat4 into S FL" possibility for this thing.


Looks like the 12z GFS is coming in more line with the other models with over or just N of the NE Caribbean...
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Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#167 Postby MJGarrison » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:53 am

FWIW Levi tagged the west convection in his recent tweet while the NHC tagged the east convection in the recent TWO.


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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#168 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:54 am

ICON is stronger and north because it too now develops the farther west circ. which on this new ASCAT is tigher and more defined with more organized convection vs the farther east one.


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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#169 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:54 am

:double:

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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#170 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:55 am

I think we will find that it's the western circulation that the models are hooking into
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#171 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:57 am



Depicting a good old fashioned LARGE CV storm
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#172 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:59 am

No chance to recurve atleast not before FL.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#173 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:03 am

Ok can someone give me my invest now? Lol
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#174 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:04 am

SFLcane wrote:No chance to recurve atleast not before FL.


Come on, you know that magic door and trough can always appear at just the right moment... :D
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#175 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:04 am

SFLcane wrote:No chance to recurve atleast not before FL.


I wanted to ask you.....what are the chances later on there will be the magical trough that comes out of nowhere to turn it north to the Carolinas?


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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#176 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:07 am

So... anyone miss models showing weak benign non-destructive conditions yet?
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#177 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:08 am

I hate to say it...The GFS used to at least be good for entertainment but compared to past years, this year its programming has gone from a good TV suspense/drama to a sitcom.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#178 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:10 am

12z UKMET. If somebody can plot this but it looks to take the system north of the islands


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.8N 54.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2020 17.8N 54.4W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2020 18.9N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2020 20.1N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 20.9N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 21.9N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.9N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#179 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:13 am

At least the GFS develops the farther west circ..

it differs from the other models in that.. the western atlantic ridge-lobe is significantly stronger and tilted .. which pushes the system wsw into the big islands/south . which is not unheard off.. one name comes to mind.. IKE.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands

#180 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:13 am

12z GFS says S of the islands, gets tangled in Hispaniola as a TD/TS moving WNW... See if it blows up after that..
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