When will the last storm of 2020 dissipate?

[zhukm29]

To lighten up the mood before the craziness that will likely begin later this week, let's start a poll for when you all think the last storm of 2020 will dissipate. 2020 has been beating earliest-formation records left and right, but will the activity end like a normal season, or will we follow 2005 until the end of December?

I'm going to guess that there might be one off-season storm, and that the last storm of the season will dissipate between December 1-10. However, with 2020's record, I wouldn't be surprised if it tried to pull off a system later than that!

What are your thoughts?

[Hurricaneman]

Early December

[CyclonicFury]

November 28

[toad strangler]

January

[wayne1701]

The season shall extend into next year January 2021. I understand that is counted for next year.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

We haven't had a post-season December storm in quite some time...(Olga 2007 was the last one I believe). Honestly if there was any year in particular in which it would occur again I feel this would be it.

[AnnularCane]

December 28.

[mlfreeman]

Because 2020 is just evil, the last name of the season will be claimed in a special 11 PM advisory on Dec 31, 2020 and the storm will set a new world record for longest lasting tropical cyclone, dissipating between Feb 5 2021 and Feb 10 2021.

[Blinhart]

We will have a storm that will be still alive on Dec. 31/Jan. 1. Just the way to start the 2021 year with an active storm.

[hcane27]

October 23rd

[Homie J]

October 23rd

This almost feels like a joke answer

[EquusStorm]

As statistics are super rad, let's take a look back at all the seasons in the +AMO, back to 1995, and see which day in UTC that the last named storm ceased to be a tropical cyclone...

1995: November 1
1996: November 26
1997: October 17
1998: December 1
1999: November 23
2000: October 29
2001: December 4
2002: October 12
2003: December 11
2004: December 3
2005: January 6 2006
2006: October 3
2007: December 12
2008: November 9
2009: November 10
2010: November 7
2011: November 11
2012: October 29
2013: December 7
2014: October 28
2015: November 11
2016: November 26
2017: November 9
2018: October 31
2019: November 24

Of 25 years, none ended before October (that last happened in 1993) 7 ended in October; 11 ended in November, statistically the most likely despite the gap between 1999 and 2008; 6 ended in December; one ended in January the following year.

[chaser1]

January

You beat me to it LOL. Last Storm of 2020 dissipate? 2021

[Hammy]

As statistics are super rad, let's take a look back at all the seasons in the +AMO, back to 1995, and see which day in UTC that the last named storm ceased to be a tropical cyclone...

1995: November 1
1996: November 26
1997: October 17
1998: December 1
1999: November 23
2000: October 29
2001: December 4
2002: October 12
2003: December 11
2004: December 3
2005: January 6 2006
2006: October 3
2007: December 12
2008: November 9
2009: November 10
2010: November 7
2011: November 11
2012: October 29
2013: December 7
2014: October 28
2015: November 11
2016: November 26
2017: November 9
2018: October 31
2019: November 24

Of 25 years, none ended before October (that last happened in 1993) 7 ended in October; 11 ended in November, statistically the most likely despite the gap between 1999 and 2008; 6 ended in December; one ended in January the following year.

The only three that even ended before Oct 20--1997/2002/2006--were El Nino.

We haven't had a post-season December storm in quite some time...(Olga 2007 was the last one I believe). Honestly if there was any year in particular in which it would occur again I feel this would be it.

Unnamed SS in early December 2013.

[Abdullah]

December 1 - 10

Can we get a poll?

[hcane27]

October 23rd

This almost feels like a joke answer

Nope. Not a joke answer.

[HurricaneEdouard]

My guess is December.

October 23rd

This almost feels like a joke answer

Nope. Not a joke answer.

Given that this season is unanimously forecasted to be hyperactive, the last storm dissipating on October 23rd is extremely unlikely; over the past 25 years, the last storm has dissipated on or before this date only in three below-average El Nino seasons (1997 with 8 named storms, 2002 with 12 named storms, and 2006 with 10 named storms), which this season (with 11 named storms already and forecasted La Nina developing) most assuredly is not.