Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Kazmit]

Euro 24hrs .. has a TD/TS already

You would think NHC development chances would be higher through 48 hrs...

[blp]

GEFS much more aggressive and further north. North of the islands. Expect the ops run to follow.

[toad strangler]

Right now @gatorcane is looking for ANY HINT of a trough / weakness or a move into Shredderola to ensure his 2020 FL E Coast no threat forecast holds up.

Doupt he will find it models for now are showing pretty substantial ridging all the way to FL.

not gonna lie, i hope that he is right. it'd have the potential to be a pretty bad situation if not.

Of course. Nobody is giddy about that kind of historic track verifying.

[CourierPR]

Well, Met. Joe Bastardi has peninsula Florida as a high candidate for a strike this season.

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro coming in




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[Cpv17]

Well, Met. Joe Bastardi has peninsula Florida as a high candidate for a strike this season.

They always have about the best chance to get hit out of anyone in the Gulf imo.

[Jr0d]

Surprised this is not an invest yet. I will likely be getting supplies ready starting tomorrow here in Key West.

We have seen it countless times where a trough comes in from seemingly no where to spare Florida, based on that climatology I think an East Coast atrike probability is low. We are still very uncertain if it will go north of tbe islands or run through the Carribean.

Regardless, the models are painting an ominous scenerio for Florida, the Bahamas, and the Carribean islands late this week into next week.

It is that time of year!

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks to everyone who’s posting the models,until of course we get an actual invest and model thread

[caneseddy]

Well the fact that WXMAN57 is watching this one more closely than 97L, which he is not that concerned about, should tell you something.

That's the classic NE Leeward/SE Bahamas/SE Florida/Gulf track we all know and love

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro at 96hrs. Looks stronger than previous runs




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[SFLcane]

Further north and stronger.

[SFLcane]

That’s not going to end well.

[WeatherEmperor]

Adrian, can you take over and post thw Euro? I'm at work. Boss might complain


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[caneseddy]

Further north and stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/NygCLvB.png

So as of now, the GFS is the only showing this system going south of the Greater Antilles. Think it will adjust to go north of the islands in the next several runs.

Waiting for that magic trough to come and sweep it away, although looking at the pattern so far, I'm not too hopeful ATM

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[toad strangler]

ridge ridge ridge and more ridge

[SconnieCane]

Further north and stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/NygCLvB.png

Cue "Jaws" theme...

[Aric Dunn]

Euro wont be going north with this in place.. geez..

[SFLcane]

Adrian, can you take over and post thw Euro? I'm at work. Boss might complain


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Sure thing!

[SFLcane]

Will post his res loop when it’s done running.

[Aric Dunn]

120 hours..

looks like FLorida straights and gulf bound..