ATL: LAURA - Models

[kevin]

Still far out (as is the case with all models at this stage of course), but 12z ICON sends this towards Florida. 968 mbar at 180 hours. The run stops there so not sure if ICON curves it OTS.

[stormlover2013]

models have struggled all year, won't be descent till about 4 days out

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the EURO is on crack. That out to sea track would require absolute perfect precision like timing in order for that to occur.

it could also turn sooner than that. it is honestly not possible to tell 8 days out.

This

Doubtful. I think plenty of other models would be sniffing it out if that was the case. The Euo is the outlier

[Jr0d]

I think the EURO is on crack. That out to sea track would require absolute perfect precision like timing in order for that to occur.

That is a common track in terms of climatology. It tajes perfect precision for a storm strike Florida from the east coast.

With this latest EURO run, a model that has a 'left' bias showing a miss, that is encouraging for Florida. We will see if the other models follow suit. We could just be seeing the wiper effect from this model of the EURO. If it is still showing a similar solution Wednesday, then I will feel confident in a Florida miss.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the Euro will shift left in time. With a huge Bermuda High stretching to the East Coast

[DestinHurricane]

Just remember that shifts to the east are more common than west in this situation. Models frequently overdo ridging early on. If I had to bet I would bet OTS for this one.

[MississippiWx]

I think the main point that is coming across from models is the favorable environment in the Western half of the basin as we head into the weekend/next week. I wouldn't get too caught up in a track for the next few days at least.

[toad strangler]

I think the EURO is on crack. That out to sea track would require absolute perfect precision like timing in order for that to occur.

That is a common track in terms of climatology. It tajes perfect precision for a storm strike Florida from the east coast.

With this latest EURO run, a model that has a 'left' bias showing a miss, that is encouraging for Florida. We will see if the other models follow suit. We could just be seeing the wiper effect from this model of the EURO. If it is still showing a similar solution Wednesday, then I will feel confident in a Florida miss.

I’d never be confident 5 plus days out

[stormlover2013]

who cares what the models say right now, they have been struggling all year.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS Ensemble trend over the past 5 runs. The ensembles are slowly trending to the right and stronger. By tomorrow I'd bet that most of these will be in the NW Bahamas or east of there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Amazing how everyone is saying that it’s going out to sea already when it’s not even a depression yet. <rolls eyes>

[SouthFLTropics]

Amazing how everyone is saying that it’s going out to sea already when it’s not even a depression yet. <sigh>

Not going out to sea necessarily. I suggest that the models will trend right only to come back left in the end. There three sides to it. Normally down the middle between the two others is the most accurate. There's a reason why the NHC forecast track normally is in line with the TVCN.

[Blown Away]

Amazing how everyone is saying that it’s going out to sea already when it’s not even a depression yet. <sigh>

Not going out to sea necessarily. I suggest that the models will trend right only to come back left in the end. There three sides to it. Normally down the middle between the two others is the most accurate. There's a reason why the NHC forecast track normally is in line with the TVCN.

At 240 hours Euro is OTS off Virginia and GFS is landfalling at Tx/Mexico border... I expect some changes to occur...

[stormlover2013]

it's crazy that some peeps really believe models this far out lol, models have been so bad this year that 3-4 days out you might have some confidence.

[ConvergenceZone]

We’ll see what the models say once it develops a center

Even if this does go out to sea, Invest 97L ain’t going out to sea, that’s for sure.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles.

[TheProfessor]

A smart man wouldn't make any predictions on where 98L is going to end up right now. A smart forecaster would take a blend of the Ensemble forecasts and some of the deterministic runs and go in the middle(though the GFS would probably be thrown out of this blend for being an outlier right now.). I'd give my opinion on where this would track, but there's no reason for me to when we're 8 or so days out and I'm not giving a forecast to a client.

[DestinHurricane]

Looking back at the Irma/93L model thread, this is eerily similar.

Look at those ensembles. Looks very much like now.

viewtopic.php?f=85&t=119059&start=80

[SouthFLTropics]

In the "For What Its Worth" department, I give you the 12z NAVGEM for your viewing entertainment...Enjoy

[sma10]

A smart man wouldn't make any predictions on where 98L is going to end up right now. A smart forecaster would take a blend of the Ensemble forecasts and some of the deterministic runs and go in the middle(though the GFS would probably be thrown out of this blend for being an outlier right now.). I'd give my opinion on where this would track, but there's no reason for me to when we're 8 or so days out and I'm not giving a forecast to a client.

Even Eric Blake recently tweeted that looking at model solutions beyond short term is pure folly