ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Just making my mark here in case this thread goes over several hundred pages! Long trackers like these make us spend up to two weeks watching it.

This wave looks very vigorous already. We keep saying that the next wave is going to open the floodgates but 98L has a good chance at actually doing it.

It sure does.It is organizing very quickly, and the moisture envelope with this feature is very impressive.This one indeed is shaping up to be one of these CV storm classics!!!

[storm4u]

Based on satelite I will go with 50/80 at 8 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/tQHrUZA.jpg

80/100

[DestinHurricane]

Based on satelite I will go with 50/80 at 8 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/tQHrUZA.jpg

80/100

NHC doesn't or very rarely puts chances at 100. They won't do that tonight. 50/80 sounds right.

[AnnularCane]

Based on satelite I will go with 50/80 at 8 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/tQHrUZA.jpg

80/100

NHC doesn't or very rarely puts chances at 100. They won't do that tonight. 50/80 sounds right.

They'll do it when something is on the verge of being classified, but in that case it's pretty much always 100/100.

[msbee]

watching this one VERY closely here in the Northern Caribbean

[St0rmTh0r]

So this is the true start of a parade of systems? Scary to think what is in store with this system and future ones plus 97L potentially..

Peak of the season is forecast to be in the strongest phase of the MJO for a while. CFS developing just about every wave rolling off in September. Unprecedented activity about to commence that could last into October.

[cycloneye]

watching this one VERY closely here in the Northern Caribbean

Hi Barbara. Also watching from PR. Let's see how it all evolves.

[eastcoastFL]

This storm is starting to get its act together. Looking more consolidated every time I check

[Jonny]

This wave looks very vigorous already. We keep saying that the next wave is going to open the floodgates but 98L has a good chance at actually doing it.

The classic fall canes are waiting to ponce.

[mpic]

I know there's way more to it than just the track but this one is way too simliar.

[Aric Dunn]

This should pretty much be all that is needed for the NHC to up the chances to high for the next 48 hours. with development likely tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

This should pretty much be all that is needed for the NHC to up the chances to high for the next 48 hours. with development likely tomorrow.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/744994799861366868/745050824580792390/20200817.png

My call is 50-80 @ 8pm. That looks quite impressive on that microwave.

[Chemmers]

I think this has the potential to be the first major hurricane of the season

[toad strangler]

As usual a really informative Levi video. Watch it. Basically, don't put much stock in ANY down range model output for now. 98L is a "MESS" right now says Levi and that has to be sorted out before any other scenarios are deemed viable.

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1295486867459248128

[abajan]

At least it's pretty clear there is no U.S. threat from this system. Track into the Bahamas then turning NE, right?

Watching here in New England.. seems like you'll be busy for awhile now..

I’m up in New England and keeping a close eye on this. There are several large trees in the side of my yard that are going to be taken down towards the end of the month, because they could fall on my house. The last thing we need is a TC before the trees are removed.

Are the trees you plan to fell close enough to hit your house if they were to sway too much or topple? Those not near enough to hit the house while swaying or falling shouldn't be cut down, because they would help to attenuate strong winds and thus protect your house.

Then again, dry branches and/or fruit could break off and hit the house. Hmm

[Dean_175]

Based on satelite I will go with 50/80 at 8 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/tQHrUZA.jpg

80/100

NHC doesn't or very rarely puts chances at 100. They won't do that tonight. 50/80 sounds right.

Actually I have seen them put 100 percent before ( they did it for either the B or C storm in 2010, cant remember which)- but I have only seen them do it when it is one advisory away from being declared. Putting 100 percent 5 days out is too bold and I can’t imagine them doing it.

A lot can happen in 5 days. Nobody expected Harvey to degenerate and then come back as a cat 4 all in the space of a week.

[aspen]

Watching here in New England.. seems like you'll be busy for awhile now..

I’m up in New England and keeping a close eye on this. There are several large trees in the side of my yard that are going to be taken down towards the end of the month, because they could fall on my house. The last thing we need is a TC before the trees are removed.

Are the trees you plan to fell close enough to hit your house if they were to sway too much or topple? Those not near enough to hit the house while swaying or falling shouldn't be cut down, because they would help to attenuate strong winds and thus protect your house.

Then again, dry branches and/or fruit could break off and hit the house. Hmm

Some are slightly tilted towards my house and yard, including an oak so tall, it would extend all the way into my neighbor’s yard if it fell.

[abajan]

80/100

NHC doesn't or very rarely puts chances at 100. They won't do that tonight. 50/80 sounds right.

Actually I have seen them put 100 percent before ( they did it for either the B or C storm in 2010, cant remember which)- but I have only seen them do it when it is one advisory away from being declared. Putting 100 percent 5 days out is too bold and I can’t imagine them doing it.

A lot can happen in 5 days. Nobody expected Harvey to degenerate and then come back as a cat 4 all in the space of a week.

On several occasions I've seen 100% stated in TWOs. It's not that unusual.

[EquusStorm]

Speaking of the TWO, it's time to incessantly refresh waiting on the new one

[hipshot]

Watching here in New England.. seems like you'll be busy for awhile now..

I’m up in New England and keeping a close eye on this. There are several large trees in the side of my yard that are going to be taken down towards the end of the month, because they could fall on my house. The last thing we need is a TC before the trees are removed.

Are the trees you plan to fell close enough to hit your house if they were to sway too much or topple? Those not near enough to hit the house while swaying or falling shouldn't be cut down, because they would help to attenuate strong winds and thus protect your house.

Then again, dry branches and/or fruit could break off and hit the house. Hmm

That is absolutely correct. If they won't hit your house or a neighbors, leave it because it will act as a wind break.