ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[TallyTracker]

20/60 on the latest TWO

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave near the Windward Islands continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to
limit significant development. After that time, however, the system
is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of
this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Steve]

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

I think we all have to be realistic though. I posted yesterday that I thought it could potentially make a run at a moderate cane and got some flack for that. I didn't say it couldn't get to major status and I didn't downplay it for a wash-out. And I don't ever argue with western Gulf processes. But there's only so much energy in a given area in a given pattern. Like wxman57 said, this is the forerunner for what looks to be a much more substantial system. We see that pretty often when there is a 1-2 shot at the Gulf. It's not always the second system that is stronger, but often the first clears the path for the system behind.

So I'm not down-playing 97L. But I'm not scared out of my wits yet either.

I think it is out right foolish to say; “I am not worried about X. I am worried about Y”. Unless you are god. Last time I looked, there are no gods on this board.

Clearly you understand that isn't in any way what I'm saying or implying. That came from wxman 57. wxman57 knows his game. He's earned my trust and then some over the last 20ish years. There is the luxury of time for him to adjust his opinion if necessary.

[Laminar]

That meme never gets old. Long range model runs should be safely locked away from children...and adults who act like children. Oh screw that...haven't we been waiting like 9 months for this sort of late night, pulse quickening tracking? Of course we have. It's our favorite sickness. Welcome back everyone and welcome to late August...time for a multi course serving of something...for someone.

Glad to hear you’re happy that small island nations will be destroyed in the midst of dealing with COVID. Zero evac for many places. Might become the deadliest season on record if you get your way. Glad you’re excited though.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like it may have some similar issues to Isaias for the near term. Moving too fast to develop and possibly bumping into pockets of shear until it gets further west into the Carib

[eastcoastFL]

That meme never gets old. Long range model runs should be safely locked away from children...and adults who act like children. Oh screw that...haven't we been waiting like 9 months for this sort of late night, pulse quickening tracking? Of course we have. It's our favorite sickness. Welcome back everyone and welcome to late August...time for a multi course serving of something...for someone.

Glad to hear you’re happy that small island nations will be destroyed in the midst of dealing with COVID. Zero evac for many places. Might become the deadliest season on record if you get your way. Glad you’re excited though.

Hyperbolic much? He/she said absolutely none of what you mentioned. If you’re not here to track storms then I’m not sure what you’re here for.

[psyclone]

That meme never gets old. Long range model runs should be safely locked away from children...and adults who act like children. Oh screw that...haven't we been waiting like 9 months for this sort of late night, pulse quickening tracking? Of course we have. It's our favorite sickness. Welcome back everyone and welcome to late August...time for a multi course serving of something...for someone.

Glad to hear you’re happy that small island nations will be destroyed in the midst of dealing with COVID. Zero evac for many places. Might become the deadliest season on record if you get your way. Glad you’re excited though.

Hyperbolic much? He/she said absolutely none of what you mentioned. If you’re not here to track storms then I’m not sure what you’re here for.

We have these every year. Part of the ebb & flow. water off a duck's back..

[Laminar]

All about the candor of delivery. There are nations out in the path that are suffering heavily under COVID lockdowns and regulations at this very moment, and not like the Americans are ‘suffering’. Real life or death struggles for the most basic of necessities.

We are all here to track the storms - some just have much more to lose. Maybe less TV game show host and more meteorologist....makes the impeding suffering easier to swallow.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Like I posted yesterday, there is no reason 97L should not develop appreciably once it reaches the western Caribbean, and models' general bearishness doesn't make much sense given the environmental conditions at hand.

Humans vs. models. Let's see.

[eastcoastFL]

All about the candor of delivery. There are nations out in the path that are suffering heavily under COVID lockdowns and regulations at this very moment, and not like the Americans are ‘suffering’. Real life or death struggles for the most basic of necessities.

We are all here to track the storms - some just have much more to lose. Maybe less TV game show host and more meteorologist....makes the impeding suffering easier to swallow.

In nearly 20 years on this board I’ve yet see anyone wish for a storm to devastate an island nation. So you may wanna take it down a notch or 10. Those late heart pumping nights they spoke of have got me through some scary times as monster storms barreled down on me.

[Steve]

That meme never gets old. Long range model runs should be safely locked away from children...and adults who act like children. Oh screw that...haven't we been waiting like 9 months for this sort of late night, pulse quickening tracking? Of course we have. It's our favorite sickness. Welcome back everyone and welcome to late August...time for a multi course serving of something...for someone.

Glad to hear you’re happy that small island nations will be destroyed in the midst of dealing with COVID. Zero evac for many places. Might become the deadliest season on record if you get your way. Glad you’re excited though.

Hyperbolic much? He/she said absolutely none of what you mentioned. If you’re not here to track storms then I’m not sure what you’re here for.

Fair, but Laminar is coming at you from 18 degrees north. So I understand and respect apprehension down there. It's 2020 with all that entails too, so there's going to be some pressure and edginess ahead. I feel like psyclone was just contextualizing his point and not trying to be crass, so I agree with you on that.

97L looks pretty good rolling through the EC tonight. It's firing off some decent convection near the Windwards.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

As we were discussing in the models thread last night, none of the globals dropped the pressure more than 5 or so mb's before slowing down near Central America. So we'll have to see if the forward speed and little bit of shear keeps it somewhat in check for the next few days or if it can intensify a little more than what most of the models think.

[psyclone]

Things can happen really fast in the western Caribbean. This is kind of a sleeper to keep an eye on. Proximity easily compensates for somewhat lower potential.

[eastcoastFL]

Glad to hear you’re happy that small island nations will be destroyed in the midst of dealing with COVID. Zero evac for many places. Might become the deadliest season on record if you get your way. Glad you’re excited though.

Hyperbolic much? He/she said absolutely none of what you mentioned. If you’re not here to track storms then I’m not sure what you’re here for.

Fair, but Laminar is coming at you from 18 degrees north. So I understand and respect apprehension down there. It's 2020 with all that entails too, so there's going to be some pressure and edginess ahead. I feel like psyclone was just contextualizing his point and not trying to be crass, so I agree with you on that.

97L looks pretty good rolling through the EC tonight. It's firing off some decent convection near the Windwards.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

As we were discussing in the models thread last night, none of the globals dropped the pressure more than 5 or so mb's before slowing down near Central America. So we'll have to see if the forward speed and little bit of shear keeps it somewhat in check for the next few days or if it can intensify a little more than what most of the models think.

I think you’re right that forward speed will keep it at bay for the coming days. If it does slow down I believe it will exceed the intensity estimates. The models have been really underplaying intensity over the past 12-18 months for some reason. Before that they made everything 920mb death storms... no happy medium

[gatorcane]

Things can happen really fast in the western Caribbean. This is kind of a sleeper to keep an eye on. Proximity easily compensates for somewhat lower potential.

Yes they can. But it does appear conditions may not be ideal this time around in the Western Caribbean. The main issue appears to be strong upper-level winds over the Yucatan and NW Carib caused by an anomalously deep upper trough digging all the way down into the southern GOM. Still development is possible but something like a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean while can’t be ruled out doesn’t appear likely. Maybe the Euro solution of a wave crashing into Central America is the end game here. I would go with a TS at this point but not a hurricane.

[psyclone]

Things can happen really fast in the western Caribbean. This is kind of a sleeper to keep an eye on. Proximity easily compensates for somewhat lower potential.

Yes they can. But it does appear conditions may not be ideal this time around in the Western Caribbean. The main issue appears to be strong upper-level winds over the Yucatan and NW Carib caused by an anomalously deep upper trough digging all the way down into the southern GOM. Still development is possible but something like a major hurricane in the Western Caribbean while can’t be ruled out doesn’t appear likely. Maybe the Euro solution of a wave crashing into Central America is the end game here. I would go with a TS at this point but not a hurricane.

Yeah it looks rough for development. we'll see if things change. beyond any coherent tc i am interested in moisture and convection sheared off to the east. we may really get some heavy rain in florida and some of that could be from this system. we need rain in my area so im hoping we get some.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

How many times does the gulf have to teach us the lesson to never turn your back on it?

Just look at Hanna. Models were showing almost nothing, but it rapidly intensified into a high end Cat 1 in the final hours before landfall...and that was in July.

Or Michael, Katrina, Rita, Charley. This list goes on.

And the list is much much larger for those that haven’t amounted to much of anything. Been living down here for over 35 years now so pretty in touch with what has and hasn’t happened.

[3090]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

Yes there is. Quite astonishing, really. They know who they are.

[Steve]

Just look at Hanna. Models were showing almost nothing, but it rapidly intensified into a high end Cat 1 in the final hours before landfall...and that was in July.

Or Michael, Katrina, Rita, Charley. This list goes on.

And the list is much much larger for those that haven’t amounted to much of anything. Been living down here for over 35 years now so pretty in touch with what has and hasn’t happened.

Good to see you Mike. Hopefully the worst we get the rest of the season is a couple of threats and some fringe stuff. Regards to you and the family.

[DestinHurricane]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

Yes there is. Quite astonishing, really. They know who they are.

Extremely foolish to downplay anything in the gulf. This time of year with warm water if the shear is low and dry air isn't a problem then it's just a matter of time before you have Harvey Charley Michael Opal etc. Not saying that this is going to be like that but the potential is certainly there regardless of what happens in the Caribbean.

[3090]

I think it is out right foolish to say; “I am not worried about X. I am worried about Y”. Unless you are god. Last time I looked, there are no gods on this board.

I'm more worried about Y

I’m equally concerned about both. Also equally skeptical until they form.

Concerned is a loosely used word. No real concerns until one, or the other (maybe both) form into something of significance. Again, for anyone to say they are concerned for one over the other at this point is foolish; PERIOD!