ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

I’m up in New England and keeping a close eye on this. There are several large trees in the side of my yard that are going to be taken down towards the end of the month, because they could fall on my house. The last thing we need is a TC before the trees are removed.

Are the trees you plan to fell close enough to hit your house if they were to sway too much or topple? Those not near enough to hit the house while swaying or falling shouldn't be cut down, because they would help to attenuate strong winds and thus protect your house.

Then again, dry branches and/or fruit could break off and hit the house. Hmm

That is absolutely correct. If they won't hit your house or a neighbors, leave it because it will act as a wind break.

I assume that "because they could fall on my house" means they could fall on his house

[aspen]

Are the trees you plan to fell close enough to hit your house if they were to sway too much or topple? Those not near enough to hit the house while swaying or falling shouldn't be cut down, because they would help to attenuate strong winds and thus protect your house.

Then again, dry branches and/or fruit could break off and hit the house. Hmm

That is absolutely correct. If they won't hit your house or a neighbors, leave it because it will act as a wind break.

I assume that "because they could fall on my house" means they could fall on his house

Well, the oak is a big risk for crushing half of the yard because it is at an angle, sloping a little towards the south. However, it and the other trees around my house did survive the May 15th 2018 Derecho and macroburst, where winds briefly got up to 110 mph, and they survived Isaias as well (gusts were probably around 60-65 mph).

[EquusStorm]

60/90

[Aric Dunn]

60/90

figured they would bump it up..

looks like we will have a TD/TS tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

90-60!

Increasing banding features..

[MarioProtVI]

60/90

figured they would bump it up..

looks like we will have a TD/TS tomorrow.

That’s a huge jump....after that microwave I can see why they decided to go with that...

Laura could be quite a strong one..

[aspen]

60/90

figured they would bump it up..

looks like we will have a TD/TS tomorrow.

Oh wow that was a huge jump! And it was on the top side of my estimates from a few hours ago.

[EquusStorm]

Wherever I live I immediately plant forest over every square inch of the yard because I'm essentially The Lorax, probably with body hair to match eventually, but I also live 300 miles inland where strong wind is really sporadic so hard to compare to windier locales

If we get a bunch of MDR big ones like this one is attempting to do, we'd be kinda overdue I think, hopefully they decide to be a bunch of recurves more akin to 1995 (minus the couple murdercanes) than 2004

[tiger_deF]

60/90

figured they would bump it up..

looks like we will have a TD/TS tomorrow.

Looks pretty fantastic on visual already for an invest, wouldn't be suprised if we have a TS by the 2 PM update if not earlier. Early signs of banding are evident, and microwave shows a potent internal structure

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure located
about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become
better organized since yesterday, with increasing banding features
near the center. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a
couple days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[hipshot]

Are the trees you plan to fell close enough to hit your house if they were to sway too much or topple? Those not near enough to hit the house while swaying or falling shouldn't be cut down, because they would help to attenuate strong winds and thus protect your house.

Then again, dry branches and/or fruit could break off and hit the house. Hmm

That is absolutely correct. If they won't hit your house or a neighbors, leave it because it will act as a wind break.

I assume that "because they could fall on my house" means they could fall on his house

I guess that depends on how far apart your houses are. It also depends on the type of tree, some are much more prone to being uprooted or shear from wind and heavy rain.

[Hurricane Mike]

8pm Video Update on the tropics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTqLsRn2y0s

[gatorcane]

Looking better today...but obstacles lie ahead for this to be a Frances, Irma, Andrew part 2 and just about every other infamous hurricanes that hit Florida from the east that I see some folks bringing up.

First there is an upper trough sitting out around 50W. That could limit any significant organization over the next 5 days not to mention how fast 98l is moving.

Second if 97l ends up a stronger or even a large system in the Western Caribbean or Gulf but not necessarily strong, the outflow from the upper anticyclone could really produce strong northerly upper winds over the SW Atlantic and Bahamas.

Third there does seem to be hints in the models of a on erosion of the Bermuda High in about 7-8 days from now should 98l try to approach Florida and the Bahamas from the east. The 18Z GFS shows even more of a trough and is closer to the Euro in that timeframe. The Bermuda High has not been that strong so far this summer so would give credence to models trending more towards a more transient Bermuda High.

It is quite possible a weak system stays south and impacts the islands and Greater Antilles. But should 98l be a deep system, it should more than likely will recurve, even the left-biased CMC shows a recurve but not before making it past Florida. I am really not concerned at the moment.

[Ubuntwo]

I wonder why the intensity guidance for the most part dips around 132hrs and then starts climbing again? Land interaction ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_intensity_latest.png

Statistical models don't initially account for land interaction like that. The 12z Euro and GFS also showed a brief period of weakening while passing near the E Carib. Looks like a brief bout of higher upper level winds.

[toad strangler]

Looking better today...but obstacles lie ahead for this to be a Frances, Irma, Andrew part 2 and just about every other infamous hurricanes that hit Florida from the east that I see some folks bringing up.

First there is an upper trough sitting out around 50W. That could limit any significant organization over the next 5 days not to mention how fast 98l is moving.

Second if 97l ends up a stronger or even a large system in the Western Caribbean or Gulf but not necessarily strong, the outflow from the upper anticyclone could really produce strong northerly upper winds over the SW Atlantic and Bahamas.

Third there does seem to be hints in the models of a on erosion of the Bermuda High in about 7-8 days from now should 98l try to approach Florida and the Bahamas from the east. The 18Z GFS shows even more of a trough and is closer to the Euro in that timeframe. The Bermuda High has not been that strong so far this summer so would give credence to models trending more towards a more transient Bermuda High.

It is quite possible a weak system stays south and impacts the islands and Greater Antilles. But should 98l be a deep system, it more than likely will recurve, even the left-biased CMC shows a recurve but not before making it past Florida.
It’s early but chances are a strong storm like a Frances-type storm should recurve before impacting the CONUS. I am really not concerned at the moment.

7-8 day ridge forecasts are always a crap shoot. That's a hint I can provide. A re-curve is almost always a safe bet as it is standard basin climatology.

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder why the intensity guidance for the most part dips around 132hrs and then starts climbing again? Land interaction ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_intensity_latest.png

Statistical models don't initially account for land interaction like that. The 12z Euro and GFS also showed a brief period of weakening while passing near the E Carib. Looks like a brief bout of higher upper level winds.

That makes sense but in that case I won’t have too much confidence in forecasting Shear that far down the road. But it is interesting that almost all of them are picking up on the same idea.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better today...but obstacles lie ahead for this to be a Frances, Irma, Andrew part 2 and just about every other infamous hurricanes that hit Florida from the east that I see some folks bringing up.

First there is an upper trough sitting out around 50W. That could limit any significant organization over the next 5 days not to mention how fast 98l is moving.

Second if 97l ends up a stronger or even a large system in the Western Caribbean or Gulf but not necessarily strong, the outflow from the upper anticyclone could really produce strong northerly upper winds over the SW Atlantic and Bahamas.

Third there does seem to be hints in the models of a on erosion of the Bermuda High in about 7-8 days from now should 98l try to approach Florida and the Bahamas from the east. The 18Z GFS shows even more of a trough and is closer to the Euro in that timeframe. The Bermuda High has not been that strong so far this summer so would give credence to models trending more towards a more transient Bermuda High.

It is quite possible a weak system stays south and impacts the islands and Greater Antilles. But should 98l be a deep system, it more than likely will recurve, even the left-biased CMC shows a recurve but not before making it past Florida.
It’s early but chances are a strong storm like a Frances-type storm should recurve before impacting the CONUS. I am really not concerned at the moment.

7-8 day ridge forecasts are always a crap shoot. That's a hint I can provide. A re-curve is almost always a safe bet as it is standard basin climatology.

Yeah lets stick with inside 5 days.. at least.

[gatorcane]

You can see the upper trough starting to drop down south over the Central Atlantic and along with it some not so favorable upper-level winds.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2020081800, , BEST, 0, 111N, 352W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

At 0000 UTC, 18 August 2020, LOW INVEST 98 (AL98) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 11.1°N and 35.2°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 20 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If we make it all the way to W I'm going to have a hard time with Wilfred...