ATL: LAURA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

06z HWRF ends like this... 978MB south of Hispaniola

[TallyTracker]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1295608863471935488

Are commercial flights actually used to feed information into the Global Models?

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile, 06z HMON loses it completely in the NE Caribbean.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1295608863471935488

Are commercial flights actually used to feed information into the Global Models?

I believe so. Personally, I suspect that statistical guidance, for once, may actually perform better than some of the global models this season.

[SFLcane]

06z Euro... still rolling

[SFLcane]

[BobHarlem]

The 6z TVCN rides it just north of the islands into the gulf, which jives with the strong ridge idea. That general trajectory is going to be a fire starter here on the model thread. But if it remains on the weaker side, which is what the Atlantic has been this year so far, it'll probably happen. GFS falls apart because it's just nonstop land interaction.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1295608863471935488

Are commercial flights actually used to feed information into the Global Models?

I believe so. Personally, I suspect that statistical guidance, for once, may actually perform better than some of the global models this season.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1289057659866345474

[tolakram]

Looks like we have no idea what 98L will do. Models seem completely random at this point.

It's the Euro 0Z's turn to hit New Orleans. Remember when we could rely on the CMC to do this?


The message here is the same though. There will be a disturbance of unknown strength moving in this general direction.

[toad strangler]

Are commercial flights actually used to feed information into the Global Models?

I believe so. Personally, I suspect that statistical guidance, for once, may actually perform better than some of the global models this season.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1289057659866345474?s=21

Posted this a few days ago. It just get's ignored, or nobody follows Ben Noll at all. I dunno.

[tolakram]

I believe so. Personally, I suspect that statistical guidance, for once, may actually perform better than some of the global models this season.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1289057659866345474?s=21

Posted this a few days ago. It just get's ignored, or nobody follows Ben Noll at all. I dunno.

I don't like one word answers, no matter who it comes from.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1289057659866345474?s=21

Posted this a few days ago. It just get's ignored, or nobody follows Ben Noll at all. I dunno.

I don't like one word answers, no matter who it comes from.

It's twitter

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'd say this thread is worth a read:
 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1295691645065863172

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1289057659866345474?s=21

Posted this a few days ago. It just get's ignored, or nobody follows Ben Noll at all. I dunno.

I don't like one word answers, no matter who it comes from.

He seems to be the only one that can answer that question though. Or rather was just asked that question. I wonder if Levi can provide some input.

[tolakram]

I think we need to be careful with the tweets. I don't know the qualifications of some of these people. I follow Noll, I see what his twitter page says, but I'm not sure if he has any solid evidence of why models are under-performing. Honestly I'm not even sure they are, other than the GFS. The euro has never been good with early developing storms, we usually look at ensembles or the general tracks, ignoring intensity.

If we look at the GFS and the CMC (and UKMET) then we see a disturbance moving in that general direction, so we keep an eye on it, ignoring intensity.

[toad strangler]

If we look at the GFS and the CMC (and UKMET) then we see a disturbance moving in that general direction, so we keep an eye on it, ignoring intensity.

This is exactly the forecast I offered up '57 when he asked for one just earlier. Keep an eye on it until IF or WHEN genesis happens.

[USTropics]

I can't speak on behalf of the other models, but there was an excellent article in March provided by the ECMWF on how aviation data is used and how it has affected model output.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-ce ... -forecasts

[SFLcane]

00z UKMET heading W-WNW

[FixySLN]

I'd say this thread is worth a read:
https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1295691645065863172

Ehhh, it's no different than one of us tweeting our THOUGHTS on the system. I'm sure he means well.

[SFLcane]