WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Eyewall forming on radar, but it’s short on time. Recent shifts eastward in the model forecast would leave it with even less time over water, but could mean heavier effects for the densely populated pearl River delta region. But still I think landfall as a typhoon isn’t completely out of question.

http://pi.weather.com.cn/i/product/pic/l/sevp_aoc_rdcp_sldas_ebref_az9660_l88_pi_20200818072400000.png

The new landfall time is almost 24hrs earlier than what was expected yesterday, but Higos appears to be doubling its effort to intensify as well.

[mrbagyo]

Please change the title.

[mrbagyo]

Bulletin issued at 16:55 HKT 18/Aug/2020

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 kilometres per hour are expected.

At 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Higos was estimated to be about 210 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 21.0 degrees north 115.6 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 20 kilometres per hour across the northern part of the South China Sea and intensify gradually, towards the coast of western Guangdong.

According to the present forecast track, Higos will skirt within about 150 kilometres to the southwest of Hong Kong tonight and tomorrow morning. As Higos has adopted a track closer to Hong Kong and also intensified, local winds may strengthen further overnight. The Observatory will consider issuing the Gale or Storm Signal, No. 8 between 10 p.m. and midnight.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Waglan Island, Tate's Cairn and Cheung Chau Beach were 59, 57 and 57 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts exceeding 66, 83 and 76 kilometres per hour respectively.

[Hayabusa]

Please change the title.

https://i.imgur.com/NEo4iPl.gif
https://i.imgur.com/LWx6TrR.gif

I know right, if only we have an active western pacific moderator

[doomhaMwx]

CMA has upgraded Higos to a STS. Up to 60kts from them at 10Z.
JMA and JTWC: 35kts and 40kts respectively .

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 181000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS HIGOS 2007 (2007) INITIAL TIME 181000 UTC
00HR 21.1N 115.2E 980HPA 30M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 30KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
30KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 21KM/H=
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
08W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
129 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING AND SUSTAINED CONVECTION
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIRCULATION
CENTER EVIDENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AN
180552Z ATMS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 40KTS WINDS PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUT FROM A 180220Z ASCAT-B
PASS, AS WELL AS MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (PGTW, 45 KTS) AND T2.5 (RJTD, 35 KTS), A 180600Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND
A 180600Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 36 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SSTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS HIGOS
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HIGOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24 NEAR
YANGJIANG, CHINA. THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS AND
WARM SSTS WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50KTS AT TAU 12
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND CHINA,
IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING OVER LAND AND RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO FULL DISSIPATION
OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

To think this was just upgraded to a TS.

Clearly underestimated. This is a rapidly intensifying typhoon at landfall.



From 3 hours ago.

[doomhaMwx]

The Chinese agencies (CMA, HKO, and SMG) all have this as a STS now.

[Nancy Smar]

The Chinese agencies (CMA, HKO, and SMG) all have this as a STS now.

According to some undisclosed observation data, CMA will call it as a typhoon at 12Z.

[1900hurricane]

Well, this feels like deja-vu.

[doomhaMwx]

70kts typhoon from CMA

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 181200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY HIGOS 2007 (2007) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC
00HR 21.1N 114.9E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
200KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST
40KM SOUTHEAST
40KM SOUTHWEST
40KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 20KM NORTHEAST
20KM SOUTHEAST
20KM SOUTHWEST
20KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 20KM/H=
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Gosh. I knew JMA's gonna be behind with this one, but I never thought I'd see them give 35kts while one agency is already analyzing it as a 70kt TY.

TS 2007 (Higos)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 18 August 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°10' (21.2°)
E114°55' (114.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Gosh. I knew JMA's gonna be behind with this one, but I never thought I'd see them give 35kts while one agency is already analyzing it as a 70kt TY.

TS 2007 (Higos)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 18 August 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°10' (21.2°)
E114°55' (114.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

Maybe they saw the latest radar image out of HK. The western eyewall has collapsed -35 knots is still pathetically low though Hahaha

[euro6208]

Gosh. I knew JMA's gonna be behind with this one, but I never thought I'd see them give 35kts while one agency is already analyzing it as a 70kt TY.

TS 2007 (Higos)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 18 August 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°10' (21.2°)
E114°55' (114.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)

Does it still surprise you? They didn't upgrade Tropical Storm 06W which had a bullseye ASCAT with 45 knot winds and Typhoon Mekkhala which pass over a chinese buoy which reported 70 knots.

Glad JTWC follows real data.

[euro6208]

08W HIGOS 200818 1200 21.1N 114.9E WPAC 45 995

[euro6208]

30 hours ago



30 hours later

It's something I guess. Pretty classic La Nina sloppy invest headed for the SCS.

[doomhaMwx]

Could be quite an impact for Macau.

A tropical cyclone alert is now in effect and the signal no. 3 is issued.
This means that under the influence of a tropical cyclone, winds with sustained speed of 41 to 62 km/h is expected or blowing and the gust may exceed 110 km/h in Macao.

At 22:00,Typhoon "Higos" (2007) was estimated to be about 150 kilometres SE of Macau (near 21.2°N, 114.6°E). It is forecast to move NW at around 25km/h.

Signal No.3 is still in effect.
The present signal will be replaced by signal No.8NE at 23:30 L.T. on the 18th of August.
The local winds will strengthen.
At 22 L.T., Typhoon "Higos" (2007) is located about 150 km southeast of Macao and moves toward the west of the Pearl River Estuary.
As the winds over the bridges are expected to be strong and gusty, drivers are advised to pay attention to traffic safety. Motorcyclists should travel between Macao Peninsula and Taipa Island through motorcycle lane on Sai Van Bridge.

[mrbagyo]

Bulletin issued at 22:45 HKT 18/Aug/2020

Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Warning Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.

The No. 8 Northeast Gale or Storm Signal was issued at 10:40 p.m.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the northeast quarter.

At 11 p.m., Severe Tropical Storm Higos was centred about 110 kilometres south of Hong Kong (near 21.3 degrees north 114.3 degrees east) and is forecast to move northwest or west-northwest at about 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast of western Guangdong.

Higos will be closest to Hong Kong within the next couple of hours, skirting about 100 kilometres to the southwest of Hong Kong. The winds over the territory are expected to strengthen further. The Gale or Storm Signal, No. 8 will remain in force for a period of time overnight and tomorrow morning (19 August). Members of the public are reminded to note the latest weather information before departing tomorrow morning.

Seas are very rough and there are swells. Members of the public are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

Owing to storm surge, some low-lying areas may have flooding or backflow of seawater tomorrow morning.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Waglan Island, Tate's Cairn and Cheung Chau Beach were 83, 64 and 51 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts exceeding 95, 78 and 65 kilometres per hour respectively.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1295736116423712769



 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1295746039341674496

[mrbagyo]