ATL: LAURA - Models

[Ken711]

00z UKMET heading W-WNW

https://i.imgur.com/gnrxUES.png

Could end up with a Hurricane Isaias track.

[Jr0d]

https://i.imgur.com/6C9KUFx.png

Looks like there will be a trough to pull it north on that run. Still to early to put any weight in any long-ranger. It seemed like just yesterday morning none of the models were hinting at a trough to possibly steer it away from the CONUS.

[BobHarlem]

12Z Early models


Shift a bit left/south, TVCN (which is probably pretty close to what an official track would be if they issued one) now pretty much rides over Cuba and then turns right into the Gulf.

I guess the big question for this one is how much land interaction (or not) it gets. Initialization is probably still poor, so I'm fairly sure this will shift again.

[SFLcane]

Yikes...

[NDG]

Yikes...

https://i.imgur.com/EwBLo2Q.jpg

Not surprising, a weaker system before reaching the Lesser Antilles and a strong Bermuda ridge to the north equals a bigger threat for US.

[Nederlander]

Well, there’s certainly quite a bit of model divergence up to this point, about as wide as you can get. CMC to Galveston, Euro to New Orleans, GFS buries it over Caribbean land, and the Icon has a monster heading for GA/Carolinas. Interesting week ahead for sure.

[plasticup]

12Z Early models
https://i.imgur.com/UhMTR40.gif

Shift a bit left/south, TVCN (which is probably pretty close to what an official track would be if they issued one) now pretty much rides over Cuba and then turns right into the Gulf.

I guess the big question for this one is how much land interaction (or not) it gets. Initialization is probably still poor, so I'm fairly sure this will shift again.

So basically anything. Got it.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yikes...

https://i.imgur.com/EwBLo2Q.jpg

Stronger signal than 00z.

[northjaxpro]

Well, there’s certainly quite a bit of model divergence up to this point, about as wide as you can get. CMC to Galveston, Euro to New Orleans, GFS buries it over Caribbean land, and the Icon has a monster heading for GA/Carolinas. Interesting week ahead for sure.

Yes indeed. At this juncture currently, everything remains on the table

[aspen]

Yikes...

https://i.imgur.com/EwBLo2Q.jpg

Stronger signal than 00z.

https://i.ibb.co/890dLY9/ezgif-2-1424bed66181.gif

A little off topic, but there’s a pretty good signal of a third system forming off of Africa by the end of that forecast period. I think it’s possible to reach Nana before the start of September, if all three systems develop.

[SFLcane]

We'll see if 12z is similar with new ASCAT added.

[Blown Away]

8am 5 Day Graphic...

12z Guidance...

Notice the 12z TVCN at 5 day/120 hrs is past 70W, and the NHC 8am 5 day graphic is just short of 60W. I don't think the NHC feels 98L is going to move as rapidly as the recent guidance suggests...

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/GUAetWC.jpg
8am 5 Day Graphic...
https://i.imgur.com/YwBtQtZ.jpg
12z Guidance...

Notice the 12z TVCN at 5 day/120 hrs is past 70W, and the NHC 8am 5 day graphic is just short of 60W. I don't think the NHC feels 98L is going to move as rapidly as the recent guidance suggests...

Good catch, yes there's no way that day 5 it will be that far east of the Lesser Antilles.

[ConvergenceZone]

Gatorcane was pointing out the dry air and trough interaction way ahead of it, but I bet it will still make tropical storm status before it reaches that and weakens. I wonder if this will be a Gilbert all over again?

[Weatherboy1]

12Z Early models
https://i.imgur.com/UhMTR40.gif

Shift a bit left/south, TVCN (which is probably pretty close to what an official track would be if they issued one) now pretty much rides over Cuba and then turns right into the Gulf.

I guess the big question for this one is how much land interaction (or not) it gets. Initialization is probably still poor, so I'm fairly sure this will shift again.

So basically anything. Got it.

Haha. Yep! This far out both geographically and time-wise, all you can do is watch and wait and follow general model trends vs. zoom in on a potential landfall site, much less intensity. Will be interesting over next 48 hours, for instance, to see if models continue to shift toward showing a stronger Bermuda high. Obviously a key player in whether some place (or no place) in US gets impacted

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly, I don't care what the global models are saying at this point. I've never seen a year with so many missed genesis forecasts between the GFS and ECMWF. Getting to the point where using these models to predict TC genesis is borderline pointless.

[chris_fit]

Just to level set before the 12Z Model Suites start trickling in, here are the 00Z GFS and 00Z EURO Ens...

[ConvergenceZone]

Honestly, I don't care what the global models are saying at this point. I've never seen a year with so many missed genesis forecasts between the GFS and ECMWF. Getting to the point where using these models to predict TC genesis is borderline pointless.

I agree with you. I’m not even going to look at the models anymore. They are a complete mess. Just going to watch the wave

[plasticup]

Honestly, I don't care what the global models are saying at this point. I've never seen a year with so many missed genesis forecasts between the GFS and ECMWF. Getting to the point where using these models to predict TC genesis is borderline pointless.

One explanation I heard was that with far fewer passenger planes they have fewer inputs. No idea whether those planes do collect/contribute meaningful data, but would be interesting if true.

[lsuhurricane]

ICON insists on making both 97 and 98 to tropical storm status by Sunday.

98 really gets going once north of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Likely a 975ish hurricane drawing a bead on South Florida. Appears to be a reasonable solution so far.

970mb landfall near Miami to Fort Lauderdale