ATL: LAURA - Models

[WxEp]

UKMET is the blue line. The text output shows "weak" but it has 98L moving WNW towards South Florida. I dont know what intensity it has though

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200818/623d401c020ee906000b539c377b88bc.gif


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NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 20.9N 63.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2020 96 20.9N 63.7W 1009 30
0000UTC 23.08.2020 108 22.0N 67.0W 1008 31
1200UTC 23.08.2020 120 23.0N 69.9W 1006 35
0000UTC 24.08.2020 132 24.1N 73.3W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 144 25.0N 76.5W 1001 43

[Aric Dunn]

So far the CMC is at least initializing the two systems and showing that rotating around each other.

lets see if the Euro does..

but the HWRF and HMON should do a lot better once the data is ingested.

[AutoPenalti]

So far the CMC is at least initializing the two systems and showing that rotating around each other.

lets see if the Euro does..

but the HWRF and HMON should do a lot better once the data is ingested.

The western lobe seems to be showing more curved banding on Satellite, kinda interesting.

[lsuhurricane]

CMC appearing to follow a similar intensity and track to the ICON model. Area just north of Puerto Rico is the sweet spot for shear to relax.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian approaching Florida




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[WeatherEmperor]

Canadian has landfall in upper Keys / lower Miami Dade county




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[BobHarlem]

12z Canadian approaching Florida

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200818/53a0d1b1d6de092f8af7061c7b44f0e3.jpg


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CMC has a 98L middle Keys landfall, with a simultaneous 97L landfall in Mexico, then 98 keeps going into the gulf.

[lsuhurricane]

This CMC run will no doubt get the board popping again

[SFLcane]

CMC 12z... SFL northern quadrant of possibly a Cat 2.

[toad strangler]

12z CMC strikes the FL Keys. Classic track right there.

[Steve]

CMC then moves straight toward SELA which is a bit west of recent landfalls on the north Gulf. Legit 970's Cat 2 there.

[Blown Away]

CMC 12z... SFL northern quadrant of possibly a Cat 2.

Sizable N shift compared to 00z...

[Steve]

[stormlover2013]

anything passed 3-5 days stop watching the models, models have struggled all year so make sure u don't model hug!!

[lsuhurricane]

From the 12z GFS Ensembles, roughly 15 of the 20 ensemble members bring this to hurricane strength. Results from full recurve all the way to landfall as far west as TX.

Very much in disagreement with its operational run

[AutoPenalti]

anything passed 3-5 days stop watching the models, models have struggled all year so make sure u don't model hug!!

It’s the models thread...

[Aric Dunn]

The 6z HWRF is interesting.. the eastern system eventually weakens but a third weak vort develops along the ITCZ and forces 98L on a brief westerly motion keeping farther south..

given the binary interaction that will play out. I wouldn't rule out the HWRF and HMON since they are made for such mesoscale features.

[Blown Away]

From the 12z GFS Ensembles, roughly 15 of the 20 ensemble members bring this to hurricane strength. Results from full recurve all the way to landfall as far west as TX.

Very much in disagreement with its operational run

Can u post graphic?

[AdamFirst]

Why does the GFS stunt development on this?

[plasticup]

Counterpoint to the Canadian, GFS brings 98L through the Florida Straights as an open wave: