ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Besides the 7 day forecast points and quadrant wind radii, do you also submit an NHC-type forecast discussion to your clients? Hopefully yes, as this would give an opportunity to convey messages such as 'uncertainty is a bit higher, given unusual genesis scenario ... etc'?

The track is a very small part of the forecast, which includes a discussion and site-specific forecasts for individual client locations, which guides clients through the activation of the various phases of their hurricane response plans. I see that we already have conference calls being scheduled for today and tomorrow. Going to be a busy next 2 months.

That’s where you earn the big bucks.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS dissipates 98L after passing the NE Caribbean but develops 97L and moves it into the lower TX coast as what's left of 98L is moving across the NE Gulf. That's nice...

Canadian has a hurricane over the FL Keys and a TS in the SW Gulf at the same time next Tuesday evening. ICON is very similar. That's even nicer...

[Aric Dunn]

It is looking more and more likely that we will get 99L out of the eastern system at some point..

Very rare for two systems to form this close.

I think a couple seasons ago in the pacific it happened. and you saw the crazy model runs with that..

expect the same here. except these two systems are similar sized.

I'd like to see your 7-day forecast on two systems interacting. It's easy when you can just propose something but don't have to follow through with a 7-day forecast for clients. Clearly, there are two separate systems now. However, models indicate a merger in a couple of days. It's better to keep it simple and have one feature to track, as was done with Cristobal earlier this year.

I think it is pretty clear what my thoughts are per my previous posts. the long term track is simple and the overall mean center will be wnw..

but what fun is that ?

the mesoscale features and forecast are far more interesting.. anyone can forecast out 7 days based off the model consensus with a reasonable track error... I Will leave that part to everyone else and enjoy the physics of it all

Remember Children give those models a real big hug.

[Laminar]

Let’s play a game then!
You both predict it’s position at landfall, at 3pm this afternoon. We can see who is right.

[BobHarlem]

Which blob wins?

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1295753576749379584

[TheProfessor]

Aric and 57 are bickering, but it's interesting because they're giving out two different sides of forecasting. In Aric's case, when forecasting to the general public, there's absolutely no reason to have a detailed 7-day track right now when a solid LLC hasn't formed and there's high uncertainty in the short term. In this case issuing a 7-day forecast could only incite panic at this point. However, from 57's point of view he's a consultant and has to deal with clients. This is an entirely different side of meteorology and often times he's consulting with companies that need a 1-2 week lead time. This obviously makes his work much more difficult because his clients require specific information even when there's high uncertainty. It's an extremely stressful job. In a way they're both right.

[EquusStorm]

My childhood dream was to be a forecaster, but times like this make me glad I woke up from that dream lol

[psyclone]

Levi called it a mess last night. It was accurate then and it still is. Take no comfort in disorganization at such an easterly longitude. Later formation often = later recurve which increases the likelihood of eventual land entanglement.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Which blob wins?

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1295753576749379584

Blob wars Part 2. My East blob prediction for Isaias didn't go so well. With that being said.....I am team East Blob again!

[Jr0d]

I manage a waterfront bar in Key West, so obviously I have a vested interest in whats developing besides just taking care of my home and family.

I am not even going to mention the storm to the owner unless she says something. Being a well established fixture in Old Key West, a situation like this happens several times a season. It is not a concern as of right now, and it will be business as usual. We will take action if necessary when the storm clears Haiti and still forecast to be a problem.

Worrying about an invest is a waste of stress. While I will stock up on storm supplies when I go grocery shopping and maybe get some extra supplies from the hardware storm, this is far from a threat. It seems like tge majority of developing systems in this area are initialy forecast to come our way...but only once a decade or so we axtually get a hurricane.

That said I will be watching this 24/7 mostly because I am a weather nerd.

Current storm threat level in Key West: Very low

[TheStormExpert]

My childhood dream was to be a forecaster, but times like this make me glad I woke up from that dream lol

Same here! I’m passionate about weather and hurricanes but times like this with struggling systems make me impatient and frustrated in a way.

[wxman57]

Aric and 57 are bickering, but it's interesting because they're giving out two different sides of forecasting. In Aric's case, when forecasting to the general public, there's absolutely no reason to have a detailed 7-day track right now when a solid LLC hasn't formed and there's high uncertainty in the short term. In this case issuing a 7-day forecast could only incite panic at this point. However, from 57's point of view he's a consultant and has to deal with clients. This is an entirely different side of meteorology and often times he's consulting with companies that need a 1-2 week lead time. This obviously makes his work much more difficult because his clients require specific information even when there's high uncertainty. It's an extremely stressful job. In a way they're both right.

You are correct. Sometimes I lose sight of the fact that no one here on this forum has to produce any specific forecast. It's just a discussion about development potential and possible tracks. Unfortunately, just ignoring the models doesn't help me when I have to issue a precise 7-day forecast. I wish I could wait a few days to issue a forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GFS dissipates 98L after passing the NE Caribbean but develops 97L and moves it into the lower TX coast as what's left of 98L is moving across the NE Gulf. That's nice...

Canadian has a hurricane over the FL Keys and a TS in the SW Gulf at the same time next Tuesday evening. ICON is very similar. That's even nicer...

Tough forecast!

[SFLcane]

80-90!

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progres of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[WxEp]

I'm really surprised they went up to 80% within 48 hours given the current level of organization and the models appearing to push back development timing a bit. I thought they would choose to leave it at 70% for now.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like an LLC rapidly getting sucked under the convection of West Blob. Have to wait and see if that leads to more organization.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[Blown Away]

The 12z GFS/EURO basically don't develop 98L through day 4-5, but NHC keeps increasing odds, so they obviously have data/tools to see beyond the GFS/EURO runs...

[Powellrm]

Been following this one for two days now. Each single time I've refreshed my webpages for updates and see the posts and new model runs, I keep saying "what?!". This is such a mess to make sense out of, and I'm so appreciate for the experts out there. Yall rock.

So out of confusion and surprise for this system I'll say it again: What?!

[Javlin]

I'm really surprised they went up to 80% within 48 hours given the current level of organization and the models appearing to push back development timing a bit. I thought they would choose to leave it at 70% for now.

Actually I am glad to see it means they are using all the tools at there disposal not not just hugging model output.I could put up Katrina as an example when Derek had the forecast correct three days before before landfall within 3/10 degree.