ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Based on today’s modeling, I’m betting NHC backs off the odds slightly at 8pm...

60/80

[TallyTracker]

The east side is coming a lot closer to the west, are they merging this early on? Or is it just a short term thing?

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I don’t think the two sides are coming together yet. It think it’s a bit of an illusion from the setting sun in conjunction with building convection on the western side of the East circulation.

[BobHarlem]

Based on today’s modeling, I’m betting NHC backs off the odds slightly at 8pm...

60/80

The way the euro has been severely flip flopping I doubt it, if they go with ATCF It'll get classified at 5PM, but I'm not sure that alone is enough.

[AutoPenalti]

What bothers me to no end is how we went from development to absolutely no development within 24 hours.

[sma10]

Based on today’s modeling, I’m betting NHC backs off the odds slightly at 8pm...

60/80

Do you think they will back off with the way it looks this afternoon? I guess it's possible, but I doubt it. And if the models go back to development tonight - flip flop back?

[TallyTracker]

Has an ASCAT pass hit the western circulation in the past few hours?

[cainjamin]

What bothers me to no end is how we went from development to absolutely no development within 24 hours.

The models flip-flopped a lot with Isaias as well, but eventually he developed. I think there's too much spin with 98L for something to not form. It will likely be a gradual process of consolidation similar to what we saw with pre-Isaias as well.

[galaxy401]

Based on today’s modeling, I’m betting NHC backs off the odds slightly at 8pm...

60/80

I highly doubt the NHC will drop it that much after just raising it. The NHC doesn't flip-flop that quick like the models do.

[Hammy]

Based on today’s modeling, I’m betting NHC backs off the odds slightly at 8pm...

60/80

NHC never backs off that much in one outlook unless there's a drastic change in real time conditions. Not to mention they don't make their forecasts based on single run to run changes.

[Blown Away]

Clearly see the multiple vortices...

[Blown Away]

[chris_fit]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/oHxHk0G.gif/url]
Clearly see the multiple vortices...

To my eyes, I see one pretty decently established center right here....

[DestinHurricane]

LOL @ trusting a model that had 940 mb yesterday but an open wave today.

Looks much better than it did earlier this morning. Some more sustained convection and we're not far from Laura.

[EquusStorm]

Models are a tool, not a rule; gotta watch actual developments and observations now and worry about modeling once it actually develops. They've been terrible with genesis lately

[AutoPenalti]

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[url]https://i.imgur.com/oHxHk0G.gif/url]
Clearly see the multiple vortices...

To my eyes, I see one pretty decently established center right here....

https://i.imgur.com/vkhMJtF.jpg

Two competing vortices, this is going to take some time.

[TallyTracker]

Considering this is DMIN, this wave is looking quite good. I expect it will become a depression tomorrow.

As for the models, they are notoriously unreliable until a single center is dominant. In this case, with two significant circulations within about 5 degrees of longitude, the models are gonna have a more difficult time than normal. Focus on real time conditions more than model output at this point.

[Hammy]

Models are a tool, not a rule; gotta watch actual developments and observations now and worry about modeling once it actually develops. They've been terrible with genesis lately

I'll add with the Euro that in the Atlantic it has a very long history, something I first noticed as far back as 2014, of not only struggling with MDR development (several others have pointed that out over the years) and showing development only to drop it as the timeframe gets closer, and then show it developing again after a few days.

[tiger_deF]

Is there a possibility we get two entirely separate systems from these vortices? They have a decent amount of separation

[NDG]

Is there a possibility we get two entirely separate systems from these vortices? They have a decent amount of separation

Who knows, I think I am just as confused as the models are in cancelling each vorticity out, lol.

[toad strangler]

It's still a mess. Long way to go before true genesis.