ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kazmit]

Wow, less than a day of unenthusiastic model runs and people are already cancelling this storm. There are still many days ahead.

[aspen]

Wow, less than a day of unenthusiastic model runs and people are already cancelling this storm. There are still many days ahead.

I guess people are buying into the Euro’s surprising lack of anything this run. To be fair, I was quite surprised it went back to being as unenthusiastic as the GFS.

[stormlover2013]

models been struggling all year, with airlines not as active, data is blah

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wow, less than a day of unenthusiastic model runs and people are already cancelling this storm. There are still many days ahead.

I guess people are buying into the Euro’s surprising lack of anything this run. To be fair, I was quite surprised it went back to being as unenthusiastic as the GFS.

i wasn't. this is a very complex developmental setup for the models to handle, and in a year that models are missing everything anyways, this was bound to happen at some point.

[jlauderdal]

Just for fun, here's the NAV

https://i.imgur.com/mI8csTE.gif

nice escape route on that run

[stormlover2013]

euro ensembles

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[EquusStorm]

If we were making definitive decisions off single model runs we'd have evacuated everyone from Texas to Maine with this by now; next run will probably be drastically different until there's something solid to latch onto instead of competing ITCZ swirls

[MississippiWx]

I know models have backed off this run, but I’d encourage people to look at satellite imagery and notice the continued organization of 98L through the day. The models are likely having fits consolidating so much spin into one tropical cyclone.

There is a reason the chances for development went up at 2pm and it has nothing to do with models and everything to do with a favorable environment and continued organization. How soon we forget the GFS and Euro missed a HUGE hurricane in the Gulf as little as one day out from the event this year.

[NDG]

One thing for sure, that the weaker it stays over the next 2-3 days while it organizes into one big dominant low pressure area the bigger the threat is for the SE US and GOM giving time for the Bermuda ridge to really take its position and keep pushing it westward.
We could very well see two systems affect the southern US, 97L & 98L almost at the same time, that would be historic.

[otowntiger]

Just for fun, here's the NAV

https://i.imgur.com/mI8csTE.gif

nice escape route on that run

Yep in that scenario you'd look for the very next frame for a pretty sharp turn north.

[eastcoastFL]

Tvcn consensus hits every island before killing it over CUBA

[caneseddy]

Had to laugh at this

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1295806512196194304

[caneseddy]

ICON running now. Will it show a hurricane in S. Florida like 12z run, join GFS/Euro in nit developing or OTS.

We shall find out soon!!

[caneseddy]

Big change on the 12z GFS-Para from a wave/TD south of Cuba to a borderline major hurricane into South Florida

[lsuhurricane]

Big change on the 12z GFS-Para from a wave/TD south of Cuba to a hurricane north of Cuba heading to South Florida.

Thats yesterdays run. GFS-Para is only intermittently run

[AutoPenalti]

ICON at hr 54 about the same.. maybe a 1mb weaker?

[caneseddy]

Big change on the 12z GFS-Para from a wave/TD south of Cuba to a hurricane north of Cuba heading to South Florida.

Thats yesterdays run. GFS-Para is only intermittently run

My mistake...

[eastcoastFL]

Big change on the 12z GFS-Para from a wave/TD south of Cuba to a borderline major hurricane into South Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081712&fh=168

Panhandle gets a cane and the 2nd one goes Irma style up the gut from the keys

[SFLcane]

Big change on the 12z GFS-Para from a wave/TD south of Cuba to a borderline major hurricane into South Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020081712&fh=168

Irma 2.0

[sma10]

18z ICON staying consistent in development north of islands. Still in UK / CMC camp