ATL: LAURA - Models
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Icon 102hrs weak TS north of PR
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
sma10 wrote:18z ICON staying consistent in development north of islands. Still in UK / CMC camp
18z Icon not gonna end well
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Yikes on 12z GFS para! 958 mb storm from 97l in the eastern GOM.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Icon ends with deepening 997mb storm in SE Bahamas
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:Icon ends with deepening 997mb storm in SE Bahamas
18z ICON... Slightly N and stronger than 12z...
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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
And the upward trend begins again
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
How much impact are the competing circulations having on the models apparent inability to develop this?
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
18z GFS... Slightly N of 12z at 90 hours...
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Am I crazy or is ICON 18z run go out to only 120 hours?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
18Z GFS again plows a weak wave head first into the GA's and looks to ride the spine. DEATH
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Am I crazy or is ICON 18z run go out to only 120 hours?
120hrs that would be correct.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
The GFS parallel has proven to be way too aggressive on intensity so far this season. Latest GFS with something similar to the previous runs, weak and tangled up in the Greater Antilles:
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
GFS implying multiple vortices will fight each other until eventually none of them win and dissipates in the Islands.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Am I crazy or is ICON 18z run go out to only 120 hours?
ICON runs out to 180 hours at 00z and 12z; out to 120 hours at 06z and 18z.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
We all learned this lesson a month ago; The models 5+ days out, especially when they have yet to latch onto a closed core, are pure fantasy.
WXMan talking about South Florida today makes me feel comfortable right now. If he's singing that tune on Friday, well, I'll get a bit antsy. I'm not gonna let myself get caught up in the models for 98L until it reaches the Antilles.
WXMan talking about South Florida today makes me feel comfortable right now. If he's singing that tune on Friday, well, I'll get a bit antsy. I'm not gonna let myself get caught up in the models for 98L until it reaches the Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Well this is a bit different from the GFS... ridge backed off a bit compared to last run and allowed a more northerly movement after running across the Greater Antilles.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
18z GFS... Appears to be a slight N shift and TD/TS landfall into SFL...
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote: We all learned this lesson a month ago; The models 5+ days out, especially when they have yet to latch onto a closed core, are pure fantasy.
WXMan talking about South Florida today makes me feel comfortable right now. If he's singing that tune on Friday, well, I'll get a bit antsy. I'm not gonna let myself get caught up in the models for 98L until it reaches the Antilles.
Yeah ya just get the feeling a conservative guy like wxman57 just doesn't just offer up forecasting like that on this forum without it being a solid possibility in his circles.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
18z GFS... TD/TS landfall in SFL...
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