ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Is there a possibility we get two entirely separate systems from these vortices? They have a decent amount of separation

Who knows, I think I am just as confused as the models are in cancelling each vorticity out, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/caZjQ6L.gif

Western lobe seems to be organizing quickly, either the eastern lobe dies out or goes on to be Marco.

[NDG]

Is there a possibility we get two entirely separate systems from these vortices? They have a decent amount of separation

Who knows, I think I am just as confused as the models are in cancelling each vorticity out, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/caZjQ6L.gif

Western lobe seems to be organizing quickly, either the eastern lobe dies out or goes on to be Marco.

The one thing that I can see happening is the eastern vorticity heading more NW straight towards the SAL and eventually weakening and getting absorbed into the western vorticity's circulation, and that's my final answer for now

[sma10]

Is there a possibility we get two entirely separate systems from these vortices? They have a decent amount of separation

Who knows, I think I am just as confused as the models are in cancelling each vorticity out, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/caZjQ6L.gif

I think they are just a little too close together for both to form. But strangely, I don't even think that is what is keeping development down with the Euro. You can see that in relative short order it consolidates the wave, but for some reason it just has it flying north of the islands and thru the straights as nothing. Must have very unfavorable wind forecast.

[wxman57]

Looking TD-ish now, maybe near 11.6N / 41.2W. The eastern blob should merge with the western low over the next day or so. 12Z models didn't help. Euro & GFS bury it over the Greater Antilles and have a wave tracking across the Gulf next week. Could very well be the case. Both indicate a very strong African easterly Jet to its north by Friday night. They both move it westward at 20-25 kts from Friday afternoon to Monday morning. it's best shot at development may be over the next 48-72 hrs. If it can manage to avoid the big islands of the northern Caribbean, then it may have a chance of becoming a hurricane threat to S. Florida next Tuesday.

Note that the consensus model, TVCN, takes it right over PR, DR, and the entire length of Cuba. That's the model the NHC would follow most closely, as a model consensus is almost always going to be better than any single model. If it takes that track, then it weakens to a wave or TD over the DR and emerges into the Gulf Monday as a wave or maybe a TD if it hasn't been downgraded by the NHC. I think the NHC may initiate advisories this evening or overnight if we can get scatterometer data to confirm that what we're looking at is a TD (or a TS, even). Certainly looks better than Josephine did as a TS (I keep saying that).

One think that looks likely is that squalls will impact the northern Antilles west through Puerto Rico and the DR from Friday PM through Saturday. There will likely be winds to tropical storm strength, at least in gusts. Such wind could cause real problems with the power grid across Puerto Rico.

[Blown Away]

Is there a possibility we get two entirely separate systems from these vortices? They have a decent amount of separation

Who knows, I think I am just as confused as the models are in cancelling each vorticity out, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/caZjQ6L.gif

If you go by the NHC 2pm 'X" they are going with W circulation....

[SFLcane]

Looking TD-ish now, maybe near 11.6N / 41.2W. The eastern blob should merge with the western low over the next day or so. 12Z models didn't help. Euro & GFS bury it over the Greater Antilles and have a wave tracking across the Gulf next week. Could very well be the case. Both indicate a very strong African easterly Jet to its north by Friday night. They both move it westward at 20-25 kts from Friday afternoon to Monday morning. it's best shot at development may be over the next 48-72 hrs. If it can manage to avoid the big islands of the northern Caribbean, then it may have a chance of becoming a hurricane threat to S. Florida next Tuesday.

Note that the consensus model, TVCN, takes it right over PR, DR, and the entire length of Cuba. That's the model the NHC would follow most closely, as a model consensus is almost always going to be better than any single model. If it takes that track, then it weakens to a wave or TD over the DR and emerges into the Gulf Monday as a wave or maybe a TD if it hasn't been downgraded by the NHC. I think the NHC may initiate advisories this evening or overnight if we can get scatterometer data to confirm that what we're looking at is a TD (or a TS, even). Certainly looks better than Josephine did as a TS (I keep saying that).

One think that looks likely is that squalls will impact the northern Antilles west through Puerto Rico and the DR from Friday PM through Saturday. There will likely be winds to tropical storm strength, at least in gusts. Such wind could cause real problems with the power grid across Puerto Rico.

Thx 57! You heard it here first.

[EquusStorm]

If 98L buries itself in the Antilles as a TS and 97L stays relatively weak, we're at 13/2/0; what a weird ratio to go into September with

2011 was 10/1/1 though so not unprecedented

[Blown Away]

Looking TD-ish now, maybe near 11.6N / 41.2W. The eastern blob should merge with the western low over the next day or so. 12Z models didn't help. Euro & GFS bury it over the Greater Antilles and have a wave tracking across the Gulf next week. Could very well be the case. Both indicate a very strong African easterly Jet to its north by Friday night. They both move it westward at 20-25 kts from Friday afternoon to Monday morning. it's best shot at development may be over the next 48-72 hrs. If it can manage to avoid the big islands of the northern Caribbean, then it may have a chance of becoming a hurricane threat to S. Florida next Tuesday.

Note that the consensus model, TVCN, takes it right over PR, DR, and the entire length of Cuba. That's the model the NHC would follow most closely, as a model consensus is almost always going to be better than any single model. If it takes that track, then it weakens to a wave or TD over the DR and emerges into the Gulf Monday as a wave or maybe a TD if it hasn't been downgraded by the NHC. I think the NHC may initiate advisories this evening or overnight if we can get scatterometer data to confirm that what we're looking at is a TD (or a TS, even). Certainly looks better than Josephine did as a TS (I keep saying that).

One think that looks likely is that squalls will impact the northern Antilles west through Puerto Rico and the DR from Friday PM through Saturday. There will likely be winds to tropical storm strength, at least in gusts. Such wind could cause real problems with the power grid across Puerto Rico.

Thx 57! You heard it here first.

Convection building to the SE of the wxman57 11.6N/41.2W area... Let's see if this is the beginning...

[TheStormExpert]

Looking TD-ish now, maybe near 11.6N / 41.2W. The eastern blob should merge with the western low over the next day or so. 12Z models didn't help. Euro & GFS bury it over the Greater Antilles and have a wave tracking across the Gulf next week. Could very well be the case. Both indicate a very strong African easterly Jet to its north by Friday night. They both move it westward at 20-25 kts from Friday afternoon to Monday morning. it's best shot at development may be over the next 48-72 hrs. If it can manage to avoid the big islands of the northern Caribbean, then it may have a chance of becoming a hurricane threat to S. Florida next Tuesday.

Note that the consensus model, TVCN, takes it right over PR, DR, and the entire length of Cuba. That's the model the NHC would follow most closely, as a model consensus is almost always going to be better than any single model. If it takes that track, then it weakens to a wave or TD over the DR and emerges into the Gulf Monday as a wave or maybe a TD if it hasn't been downgraded by the NHC. I think the NHC may initiate advisories this evening or overnight if we can get scatterometer data to confirm that what we're looking at is a TD (or a TS, even). Certainly looks better than Josephine did as a TS (I keep saying that).

One think that looks likely is that squalls will impact the northern Antilles west through Puerto Rico and the DR from Friday PM through Saturday. There will likely be winds to tropical storm strength, at least in gusts. Such wind could cause real problems with the power grid across Puerto Rico.

What would you put the chances of that happening at?

[TheStormExpert]

If 98L buries itself in the Antilles as a TS and 97L stays relatively weak, we're at 13/2/0; what a weird ratio to go into September with

2011 was 10/1/1 though so not unprecedented

Quantity over quality my friend! We could have a season with 20+ named storms and only 4-6 hurricanes and a few majors and it would still be classified as above average or hyperactive.

[EquusStorm]

If 98L buries itself in the Antilles as a TS and 97L stays relatively weak, we're at 13/2/0; what a weird ratio to go into September with

2011 was 10/1/1 though so not unprecedented

Quantity over quality my friend! We could have a season with 20+ named storms and only 4-6 hurricanes and a few majors and it would still be classified as above average or hyperactive.

It would certainly be frustrating to have a season that's truly hyperactive with such a weird ratio; could theoretically happen with a couple really massive 50+ ACE churners and a couple long track hurricanes then weak TS otherwise. Really like to use ACE instead of named storms for that reason to compare seasons but hey at least the weak stuff is something to briefly track waiting on things to pick up somewhere lol

[cycloneye]

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.

[SFLcane]

57 can you create one of those maps we’re you estimate the potential center is.

[wxman57]

Looking TD-ish now, maybe near 11.6N / 41.2W. The eastern blob should merge with the western low over the next day or so. 12Z models didn't help. Euro & GFS bury it over the Greater Antilles and have a wave tracking across the Gulf next week. Could very well be the case. Both indicate a very strong African easterly Jet to its north by Friday night. They both move it westward at 20-25 kts from Friday afternoon to Monday morning. it's best shot at development may be over the next 48-72 hrs. If it can manage to avoid the big islands of the northern Caribbean, then it may have a chance of becoming a hurricane threat to S. Florida next Tuesday.

Note that the consensus model, TVCN, takes it right over PR, DR, and the entire length of Cuba. That's the model the NHC would follow most closely, as a model consensus is almost always going to be better than any single model. If it takes that track, then it weakens to a wave or TD over the DR and emerges into the Gulf Monday as a wave or maybe a TD if it hasn't been downgraded by the NHC. I think the NHC may initiate advisories this evening or overnight if we can get scatterometer data to confirm that what we're looking at is a TD (or a TS, even). Certainly looks better than Josephine did as a TS (I keep saying that).

One think that looks likely is that squalls will impact the northern Antilles west through Puerto Rico and the DR from Friday PM through Saturday. There will likely be winds to tropical storm strength, at least in gusts. Such wind could cause real problems with the power grid across Puerto Rico.

What would you put the chances of that happening at?

Avoiding the big islands and a stronger storm heading for FL or the Carolinas? Maybe 30-40%. Just slightly less chance than tracking over the Greater Antilles. It all depends on how the storm comes together over the next few days. I see the EC ensembles are in. Most have a weak system tracking across the big islands into the Gulf next Mon/Tue. Almost all members either don't develop 97L or move it across Central America or southern Yucatan and into southern Mexico.

[chaser1]

Let's say you have to make a 7-day track today, but you've "thrown out" all the models. What's the forecast?

Hmmm, that would be a fun exercise (minus the developing ulcer lol). Let's see...... I'd probably mix one ounce of Climo, 2 ounces of persistence, add a cup of vis/IR/WV satellite loops, a splash of grenadine, and half a bottle of Bacardi Dark. Mix well and chill for 30 minutes. Then, I'd saunter up into the attic and pull out my 'ol dart board. With W. Atlantic map well fastened to the dart board, and a cold tall glass of my "model-less" concoction in hand.... I'd start throwing darts. Three board misses, and it's out to sea. One single dart sticks, and that's my forecast. Now, if 2 or more darts hit the board this would simply suggest that I havn't refined my forecast quite yet and I proceed to fill my glass and try again LOL.

[Blown Away]

Broad Circulation...

[Hammy]

If 98L buries itself in the Antilles as a TS and 97L stays relatively weak, we're at 13/2/0; what a weird ratio to go into September with

2011 was 10/1/1 though so not unprecedented

Even if these don't develop there's still 13 days left in August--I highly doubt it would mean nothing else develops the rest of the month.

[Kingarabian]

It's looking pretty good on visible imagery.

[EquusStorm]

If 98L buries itself in the Antilles as a TS and 97L stays relatively weak, we're at 13/2/0; what a weird ratio to go into September with

2011 was 10/1/1 though so not unprecedented

Even if these don't develop there's still 13 days left in August--I highly doubt it would mean nothing else develops the rest of the month.

But then we have to deal with major Hurricane Nana and I don't think anyone wants that, hahaha

[Nimbus]

The western most vort has made it past 40W but is safely nestled down in the ITCZ away from the African jet and SAL.
That vort is starting to dry out a little but it will be the first area to spin up as it moves into the sweet spot past 50W.
Models are suggesting it might not be such a low rider and might even miss the Caribbean, and if it spins up coming into the islands, the south shore of Puerto Rico might see a rapidly deteriorating forecast.
Hard to predict, I don't envy the pro's at all with this one.