ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Am I going crazy because it looks to me like the eastern low looks to be taking over

[Nimbus]

Am I going crazy because it looks to me like the eastern low looks to be taking over

My thinking is that the eastern vort will dry out as it moves past 40W and since its further north and closer to the African jet it may not end up being the primary system. Although it is moving faster it would be absorbed by the stronger western vort later.

edit to add:
This is probably what divides the model track differences since the western vort is further south it would track into the Caribbean if it dominates but remains a TS.

[mpic]

I'm really surprised they went up to 80% within 48 hours given the current level of organization and the models appearing to push back development timing a bit. I thought they would choose to leave it at 70% for now.

Actually I am glad to see it means they are using all the tools at there disposal not not just hugging model output.I could put up Katrina as an example when Derek had the forecast correct three days before before landfall within 3/10 degree.

Another instance is in 2008 when they were saying on tv that Ike would hit Mexico and Houston was in the clear. The people here were telling us to evacuate and not wait. I talked my boss into vacation time and left Sunday before landfall on Thursday. Glad I didn't have to endure Ike in my mobile home with a tree on it.

[stormlover2013]

This is when the real meteorologists will flex their muscles

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1295850109700276224

[SFLcane]

This looks like a go but we will see what i does overnight. Nice banding on the SW side

[Hammy]

Still two distinct lows there.

[jasons2k]

Until it detaches from the ITCZ, it's a guessing game.

[eastcoastFL]

Is that blow up to the west where the center is?

[toad strangler]

Is that blow up to the west where the center is?

There is no center. A couple vorts trying to be though.

[psyclone]

Our tropical egg has a persistent double yolk. It needs time to consolidate and work out those structural issues. It has the needed time, plenty of warm water ahead and a calendar that really presses the scale in favor of eventual development.

[stormlover2013]

I don’t think the trough is going to be strong enough to break down the ridge, looking at euro, JMA, Ukmet, ridge looks pretty stout

[MarioProtVI]

Still two distinct lows there.

https://i.imgur.com/70Hi6TZ.png

Is that an old pass? I see 10z at the bottom and if so that’s definitely changed..

[wxman57]

Still two distinct lows there.

https://i.imgur.com/70Hi6TZ.png

That pass was 14 hours ago. Purple number at the bottom is the pass time (1013Z).

[stormlover2013]

Still two distinct lows there.

https://i.imgur.com/70Hi6TZ.png

That pass was 14 hours ago. Purple number at the bottom is the pass time (1013Z).

What do you think about the 18z gfs run

[Kiko Snowe]

The GFS seems to not develop 98L until hour 162, when its located near Florida. I personally think there's two issues with this.
- hour 168 seems a bit far out, especially for a model that hasn't done that well this year.
- this would directly contradict the NHC's predictions.
I would trust the NHC over the 18z GFS run.

[wxman57]

Still two distinct lows there.

https://i.imgur.com/70Hi6TZ.png

That pass was 14 hours ago. Purple number at the bottom is the pass time (1013Z).

What do you think about the 18z gfs run

Looks goofy. Probably not worth the paper it's written on.

[stormlover2013]

That pass was 14 hours ago. Purple number at the bottom is the pass time (1013Z).

What do you think about the 18z gfs run

Looks goofy. Probably not worth the paper it's written on.

Figured u would say something like that lol good stuff

[Blinhart]

I think this could very much split into 2 separate systems.

[captainbarbossa19]

I'm really surprised they went up to 80% within 48 hours given the current level of organization and the models appearing to push back development timing a bit. I thought they would choose to leave it at 70% for now.

Actually I am glad to see it means they are using all the tools at there disposal not not just hugging model output.I could put up Katrina as an example when Derek had the forecast correct three days before before landfall within 3/10 degree.

Another instance is in 2008 when they were saying on tv that Ike would hit Mexico and Houston was in the clear. The people here were telling us to evacuate and not wait. I talked my boss into vacation time and left Sunday before landfall on Thursday. Glad I didn't have to endure Ike in my mobile home with a tree on it.

I am glad you mentioned 2008. Before Ike entered the Gulf, Hurricane Gustav was another poorly handled storm. I presume the models were confused on where it was going to make landfall once it entered the Gulf (at the time, I did not pay as much attention to the models). The problem was that the local media stated that there was no need to evacuate in my area, but the national media said that we should "run for the hills." I am not sure why there was such a difference of opinion, but trusting the models beyond three days with a storm is at best iffy.