ATL: LAURA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

That approach to FL on the 18z GFS is interesting. I'd really like to see the GFS and Euro with runs just to the North of Hispaniola and see what they may come up with. I'd guess we may see something more significant. The land interaction is definitely one of the key variables here.

[gatorcane]

There is my trough. Even as a weak system barely hits. Euro has a completely different upper pattern though.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS

[SouthFLTropics]

Ah the Happy Hour GFS decided to throw a curve ball. Gotta love that little ball of convection riding up the Space Coast and hanging out for a while.

[supercane4867]

GFS stalls it just off shore Florida while doing a cyclonic loop before heading north to SC. LOL

[AutoPenalti]

There is my trough. Even as a weak system barely hits. Euro has a completely different upper pattern though.

https://i.postimg.cc/1z3H8Pmc/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-29.png

LOL, watch it disappear at 0z.

That’s 5 runs now with little to no development from the GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think this GFS run shows us that if future runs avoid the big islands we could see an uptick in intensity by the GFS and Euro.

[sma10]

There is my trough. Even as a weak system barely hits. Euro has a completely different upper pattern though.

https://i.postimg.cc/1z3H8Pmc/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-29.png

LOL, watch it disappear at 0z.

That’s 5 runs now with little to no development from the GFS.

GFS develops it significantly. I think this run bodes ill

[toad strangler]

I think this GFS run shows us that if future runs avoid the big islands we could see an uptick in intensity by the GFS and Euro.

Yeah, that's the White Elephant in the room

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1295855028993961985

[SFLcane]

Well this is a bit different from the GFS... ridge backed off a bit compared to last run and allowed a more northerly movement after running across the Greater Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/NVtlfNi.png

Interesting development. we shall see if it continues

[eastcoastFL]

GFS stalls it just off shore Florida while doing a cyclonic loop before heading north to SC. LOL

I may just have my dog step on a map and use that as a model for now...

[chris_fit]

How do the 18z GFS Ens look?

[sma10]

How do the 18z GFS Ens look?

The GFS-Para ensemble continues to show a concentration of members between S Fl and Cuba running thru the straits

[USTropics]

My favorite part of the last few GFS runs? Watch how it handles the remnants of Josephine (outlined track in blue starting 72 hours ago followed by animation):

[sma10]

Also of note (perhaps?) HMON at 18z is trending stronger and further NE thru 87 hours

[caneseddy]

Also of note (perhaps?) HMON at 18z is trending stronger and further NE thru 87 hours

Also going north of the islands as strengthening hurricane while prior run it was very weak south of PR

HWRF through 87 hours also more north. Looks like it may clip the Virgin Islands.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is all in by hour 105. Going ballistic North of PR and headed west.


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[toad strangler]

Hmmmm

[Blown Away]

HMON is all in by hour 105. Going ballistic North of PR and headed west.


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Dang, goes Major and N of the GA...