ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#241 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:43 pm

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms on the west side of
the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#242 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Pretty clear the NHC is seeing something that the GFS/Euro are missing.
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#243 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Up to 90/90
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#244 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:48 pm

Is this the point in the journey where the HP is not as strong and the unusually strong trough for August appears and turns a major hurricane out to sea? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#245 Postby CaribJam » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:54 pm

Pro's good evening.

For the purpose of disaster preparation and planning in the Windward and Leeward Islands, would it be prudent to assume the following?
1. the 98L may merge with the TW to its east
2. the merger may take some time and probably be large
3. during that "some time" it may move further west, without any significant northern movement.
If the above doesn't occur, at least our friends would have been prepared for any other that may pass their way.

Thanks for your response and stay safe everyone during this hectic season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#246 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:59 pm

Blinhart wrote:I think this could very much split into 2 separate systems.


I'm thinking the opposite is more likely to occur...they get close enough to each other that binary action takes place between the two vorticity centers that causes the envelope to temporarily lurch northward, and then coalesce into a single system before resuming a WNW (or just N of due west) track. Either that or they both would remain quite weak and be more likely to interact with the big islands of the GA. But for now, I'm going with option one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#247 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:01 pm

The deep convection from the western blob has been pretty consistent. Does Aric or anyone else see a closed off TD at this point? I’d imagine they may name this thing by tomorrow if this keeps going like it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#248 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:18 pm

New SCAT still showing 3 fairly sized vorts SW of the 98L. Very similar to HWRF/HMON 24 hours evolution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#249 Postby boca » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:19 pm

We really haven’t had a strong Bermuda high this summer yet and by the track the NHC is showing on their map it looks like a turn more towards the NW. Any thoughts are welcome.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#250 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:20 pm

Looks like the west blob has really taken over at this point. There isn’t much left to the eastern blob
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#251 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:22 pm

boca wrote:We really haven’t had a strong Bermuda high this summer yet and by the track the NHC is showing on their map it looks like a turn more towards the NW. Any thoughts are welcome.


That’s exactly how it looks to me so far. Models seem to be flip flopping on the strength of the ridge and the troughs. As usual that will be one of the key parts to this equation. Let’s hope a trough will save us again if this thing strengthens. The ICON had a strong cane in the Bahamas at the end of the run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#252 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:23 pm

Blinhart wrote:I think this could very much split into 2 separate systems.


Why do you think so? It doesn’t look like there’s much left on the east
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#253 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:New SCAT still showing 3 fairly sized vorts SW of the 98L. Very similar to HWRF/HMON 24 hours evolution.


Link to new scat?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#254 Postby USTropics » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:27 pm

CaribJam wrote:Pro's good evening.

For the purpose of disaster preparation and planning in the Windward and Leeward Islands, would it be prudent to assume the following?
1. the 98L may merge with the TW to its east
2. the merger may take some time and probably be large
3. during that "some time" it may move further west, without any significant northern movement.
If the above doesn't occur, at least our friends would have been prepared for any other that may pass their way.

Thanks for your response and stay safe everyone during this hectic season.


There are a few possibilities, I believe what you outlined (and AJC3 as well) is the most likely outcome. This was my post last night about this exact scenario - viewtopic.php?p=2831475#p2831475. There may be a bit of a jump north as this process occurs (see AJC3 post about pivoting around a new common center as they merge).

Now animate the mid-levels over the past 24 hours, and you can see this process slowly occurring:
Image
Last edited by USTropics on Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#255 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:27 pm

boca wrote:We really haven’t had a strong Bermuda high this summer yet and by the track the NHC is showing on their map it looks like a turn more towards the NW. Any thoughts are welcome.


That’s not a track that’s we’re they expect it to develop somewhere inside the red shaded area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#256 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:29 pm

Here is the firsts of the SCAT images of the western area 98L

still a ways to go.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#257 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:32 pm

It’s amazing how suddenly the eastern convection just starts to fade away on IR. Is that sign of further consolidation for the western side?



Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#258 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Here is the firsts of the SCAT images of the western area 98L

still a ways to go.

https://i.ibb.co/fxqP8Qq/hy-2b-20200818-20-82-flag.png



Thanks. Looks like another 24 hours before it gets classified.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#259 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:38 pm

Here’s tonight’s tropical outlook from SFWMD

Another westward-moving tropical wave is producing clouds and thunderstorms 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. A tropical depression is expected to develop in this system over the next couple of days as it moves across the tropical Atlantic. This system has the potential to affect the District’s weather Monday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#260 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:46 pm

And here is SCAT SAT of the same area..

not any better. 2 hours later.

next up are the ASCATs I am guessing they will be very similar.

at least two models show all these vorts ( HWRF/HMON)

Image
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