ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We need an actual center and storm to form before we look too much at the hurricane models. We saw this same story of over-intensifying Isaias in its early stages.

And we also saw the HWRF be correct with Hanna just a few days prior to that, despite the global models failing to show anything.

Will also point out the global models consistently played catchup with Hanna and Isaias.

[ConvergenceZone]

We need an actual center and storm to form before we look too much at the hurricane models. We saw this same story of over-intensifying Isaias in its early stages.

And we also saw the HWRF be correct with Hanna just a few days prior to that, despite the global models failing to show anything.

Will also point out the global models consistently played catchup with Hanna and Isaias.

That's a good point. The HWRF was laughed at when it came to the strength of Hanna, but in the end, HWRF was the one doing the laughing, while all the other models cowered in a corner, ashamed of their mistakes.

[St0rmTh0r]

HWRF Hour 126, 944MB, 120 knots


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If the environment is favorable with how warm those waters are this isn't crazy

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like there’s agreement for the next 72 hours that this system will head wnw until it’s east of PR. That’s where the argument begins about if it continues north or south of the island. 3 or them trek right through the middle of DR...

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF Hour 126, 944MB, 120 knots


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If the environment is favorable with how warm those waters are this isn't crazy

Not crazy at all. If it develops and avoids land there’s not much to hold it back intensity wise

[eastcoastFL]

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF is showing RI at the end of the run. Would be a CAT5 if extrapolated beyond 120hr.

[eastcoastFL]

18z HWRF is showing RI at the end of the run. Would be a CAT5 if extrapolated beyond 120hr.

It’s identical to the HMON

[eastcoastFL]

I’m curious how different the upcoming GFS will be from the happy hour run.

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF Hour 126, 944MB, 120 knots


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If the environment is favorable with how warm those waters are this isn't crazy

Not crazy at all. If it develops and avoids land there’s not much to hold it back intensity wise

I thought there was supposed to be a lot of shear, no?

[gatorcane]

I wouldn’t waste time with the HWRF. The model almost always is way too dramatic. Think about Gonzalo. Had a CAT 3. Not even close. The model does a bit better when we already have a storm but even then it is shady for lack of a better word. Hanna was a rare coupe for the model. In this case, we have a mess with two competing vorts. Oh since we are talking about some of the not so good models, the NAVGEM dropped 98l like a bag of bricks, Stick with the GFS and Euro here.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z HWRF is showing RI at the end of the run. Would be a CAT5 if extrapolated beyond 120hr.

It’s possible, but no way to know for sure. If it kept up the pace it was going in the last 24 hours of the run then yes, that would be a reasonable assumption.

As many have pointed out, the intensity should be taken with a boulder of salt at this point. What’s more important is the fact that all of the models see a ridge that will steer whatever form 98L becomes towards the SE CONUS.


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[Blown Away]

Check out 00z guidance & intensity... Wow what a change of events...

[SouthFLTropics]

I wouldn’t waste time with the HWRF. The model almost always is way too dramatic. Think about Gonzalo. Had a CAT 3. Not even close. The model does a bit better when we already have a storm but even then it is shady for lack of a better word. Hanna was a rare coupe for the model. In this case, we have a mess with two competing vorts. Oh since we are talking about some of the not so good models, the NAVGEM dropped 98l like a bag of bricks, Stick with the GFS and Euro here.

Gator, I always appreciate your insight and comments. It’s always good to hear from you each year after both of us being here so long dating back to the GoPbi days. I have to ask though, have you been attending the WXMAN57 school lately? I don’t remember you being so bearish in years past.

I’m just messing with you...always great to hear thoughts on both sides of the model discussion.


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[eastcoastFL]

I wouldn’t waste time with the HWRF. The model almost always is way too dramatic. Think about Gonzalo. Had a CAT 3. Not even close. The model does a bit better when we already have a storm but even then it is shady for lack of a better word. Hanna was a rare coupe for the model. In this case, we have a mess with two competing vorts. Oh since we are talking about some of the not so good models, the NAVGEM dropped 98l like a bag of bricks, Stick with the GFS and Euro here.

HMON is identical. Gfs doesn’t really give me much confidence. I’ll be paying close attention to Euro as it progresses.

[toad strangler]

I wouldn’t waste time with the HWRF. The model almost always is way too dramatic. Think about Gonzalo. Had a CAT 3. Not even close. The model does a bit better when we already have a storm but even then it is shady for lack of a better word. Hanna was a rare coupe for the model. In this case, we have a mess with two competing vorts. Oh since we are talking about some of the not so good models, the NAVGEM dropped 98l like a bag of bricks, Stick with the GFS and Euro here.

It's hard to think that you are not doing some heavy weight model cherry picking here. Good luck. The GFS has had warts as large as the ones you just cast on the others in this post ... Good Luck!

[Hurricane Mike]

The HWRF did very well with Hurricane Hanna.

[eastcoastFL]

I wouldn’t waste time with the HWRF. The model almost always is way too dramatic. Think about Gonzalo. Had a CAT 3. Not even close. The model does a bit better when we already have a storm but even then it is shady for lack of a better word. Hanna was a rare coupe for the model. In this case, we have a mess with two competing vorts. Oh since we are talking about some of the not so good models, the NAVGEM dropped 98l like a bag of bricks, Stick with the GFS and Euro here.

It's hard to think that you are not doing some heavy weight model cherry picking here. Good luck. The GFS has had warts as large as the ones you just cast on the others in this post ... Good Luck!

Right. I won’t say any models are better than the other this year. None have proven to be effective so far. So I can’t discount anything. The gfs certainly doesn’t give me any confidence.

[DestinHurricane]

The HWRF did very well with Hurricane Hanna.

If you predict RI every time, you'll be right a few times. It performed very will with Michael, Hanna, Dorian, etc.

[eastcoastFL]

If the environment is favorable with how warm those waters are this isn't crazy

Not crazy at all. If it develops and avoids land there’s not much to hold it back intensity wise

I thought there was supposed to be a lot of shear, no?

Not that I’m aware of. The only real inhibiting factors for 98l that I’m aware of is the islands. I know 97l is forecast to have shear to deal with.